Eli Wilson
C Indianapolis Indians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | AA/A+PIT | 202 | .241/.337/.425 | 7 | 3 | 53 | — | .190/.256/.322 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAPIT | 75 | .164/.243/.313 | 3 | 3 | 22 | — | .145/.203/.290 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 60 | .250/.288/.393 | 2 | 0 | 47 | — | .230/.271/.373 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBPIT | 10 | .213/.273/.336 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBPIT | 41 | .212/.272/.332 | 1 | 1 | 71 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ37% MLB | 31 | MLBPIT | 55 | .209/.270/.326 | 1 | 0 | 69 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 67 | 59 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 299 | 373 | 671 | 169 | 297 | 31 | 7 | 303 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 152 | 116 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 328 | 483 | 474 | 958 | 147 | 461 | 25 | 20 | 431 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 220 | 193 | 45 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 56 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 318 | 373 | 691 | 140 | 293 | 25 | 8 | 309 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 65 | 61 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 297 | 443 | 739 | 180 | 283 | 18 | 5 | 321 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 137 | 113 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 230 | 356 | 416 | 771 | 186 | 244 | 15 | 14 | 343 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 75 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 164 | 243 | 313 | 557 | 149 | 178 | 27 | 9 | 250 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 35 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 314 | 441 | 755 | 147 | 391 | 29 | 3 | 334 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 25 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 318 | 568 | 136 | 214 | 28 | 4 | 249 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 67 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 239 | 311 | 550 | 148 | 270 | 42 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 152 | 128 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 377 | 367 | 745 | 102 | 407 | 34 | 12 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 220 | 201 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 73 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 179 | 240 | 269 | 508 | 90 | 243 | 33 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 65 | 62 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 250 | 355 | 605 | 129 | 256 | 23 | 3 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 137 | 121 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 259 | 306 | 565 | 132 | 184 | 19 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 75 | 69 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 145 | 203 | 290 | 493 | 145 | 157 | 33 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 35 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 286 | 412 | 697 | 147 | 351 | 34 | 3 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 25 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 318 | 568 | 136 | 198 | 32 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 219 | 189 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 80 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 326 | 323 | 648 | 101 | 370 | 37 | 10 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 219 | 175 | 50 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 59 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 427 | 440 | 867 | 154 | 407 | 27 | 16 | 392 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 220 | 201 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 73 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 179 | 240 | 269 | 508 | 90 | 254 | 33 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 220 | 193 | 45 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 56 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 318 | 373 | 691 | 140 | 293 | 25 | 8 | 309 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 202 | 183 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 251 | 311 | 563 | 126 | 210 | 20 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 202 | 174 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 241 | 337 | 425 | 762 | 184 | 257 | 16 | 11 | 336 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 75 | 69 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 145 | 203 | 290 | 493 | 145 | 167 | 33 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Altoona Curve | — | 75 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 164 | 243 | 313 | 557 | 149 | 178 | 27 | 9 | 250 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 60 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 254 | 368 | 623 | 140 | 324 | 35 | 2 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 60 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 288 | 393 | 681 | 143 | 324 | 28 | 3 | 299 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 219 | 188 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 80 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 326 | 324 | 650 | 101 | 365 | 37 | 10 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 220 | 202 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 73 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 178 | 240 | 267 | 507 | 89 | 243 | 33 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 202 | 184 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 185 | 251 | 310 | 561 | 125 | 207 | 20 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 75 | 70 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 143 | 203 | 286 | 488 | 143 | 157 | 33 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 60 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 254 | 362 | 616 | 138 | 287 | 35 | 2 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 75 | 70 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 143 | 203 | 286 | 488 | 143 | 157 | 33 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 60 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 254 | 362 | 616 | 138 | 287 | 35 | 2 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | PIT | 10% | 200 | 183 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 57 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 274 | 342 | 616 | 127 | 281 | 28 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | PIT | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 273 | 336 | 610 | 123 | 282 | 30 | 10 | 273 | 73 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | PIT | 27% | 151 | 139 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 273 | 337 | 610 | 125 | 280 | 28 | 7 | 274 | 71 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB MLE | PIT | 37% | 148 | 136 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 270 | 331 | 601 | 121 | 277 | 29 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -5 | +0 | -3 | +3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | PIT | 27% | 41 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 272 | 332 | 604 | 120 | 280 | 29 | 7 | 271 | 71 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB CTX | PIT | 37% | 55 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 270 | 326 | 596 | 117 | 278 | 29 | 7 | 268 | 69 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 96 | 89 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 260 | 315 | 575 | 112 | 271 | 29 | 7 | 269 | 60 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 122 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 47 | 190 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 202 | 260 | 317 | 577 | 114 | 271 | 29 | 7 | 269 | 60 | -23 | +1 | -11 | +12 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1180 | 1070 | 215 | 36 | 7 | 26 | 78 | 356 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 201 | 268 | 321 | 589 | 120 | 272 | 30 | 7 | 256 | 60 | -14 | +0 | -5 | +7 | +9 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 118 | 20 | 4 | 14 | 43 | 196 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 200 | 267 | 319 | 586 | 119 | 272 | 30 | 7 | 256 | 60 | -23 | +0 | -8 | +12 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 35 PAwOBA .324 → .256 (−68)K% 28.6% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.86% | ÷1.112 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 1.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 27.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.20% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .324 → .256; ISO .147 → .107; BABIP .391 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 25 PAwOBA .242 → .212 (−30)K% 28.0% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷1.054 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 2.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 3.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 18.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 5.49% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 111, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .242 → .212; ISO .136 → .115; BABIP .214 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAltoona Curve · 75 PAwOBA .247 → .200 (−47)K% 26.7% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.33% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.89% | ÷1.018 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 13.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.948 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.38% | ÷0.844 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 5.83% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .247 → .200; ISO .149 → .129; BABIP .178 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 137 PAwOBA .337 → .244 (−94)K% 14.6% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.60% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 19.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.87% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 8.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.19% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.05% | ÷1.016 | ×0.870 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 12.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷1.154 | ×0.780 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.30% | ÷1.202 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 3.08% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 103, 2B 131, 3B 80, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .337 → .244; ISO .186 → .138; BABIP .244 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAltoona Curve · 65 PAwOBA .312 → .254 (−57)K% 18.5% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.46% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.62% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.45% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | ×0.998 | 21.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.142 | ×0.860 | ×1.015 | ×0.998 | 3.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.106 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.31% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .312 → .254; ISO .180 → .127; BABIP .283 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 220 PAwOBA .304 → .221 (−83)K% 25.5% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.45% | ÷0.999 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.18% | ÷1.063 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.73% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 2.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.36% | ÷0.961 | ×0.870 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 20.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.65% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 2.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.38% | ÷1.273 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.99% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 92, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .304 → .221; ISO .140 → .095; BABIP .293 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ABradenton Marauders · 152 PAwOBA .424 → .324 (−100)K% 25.0% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.989 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.39% | ÷1.130 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 12.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.62% | ÷0.976 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×0.990 | 31.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.26% | ÷0.943 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×0.990 | 8.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.976 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.302 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.34% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 95, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 98, BB 126 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .424 → .324; ISO .147 → .106; BABIP .461 → .407. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 67 PAwOBA .295 → .224 (−71)K% 31.3% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.34% | ÷1.021 | ×1.350 | — | — | 41.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.46% | ÷1.085 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.48% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 3.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷0.981 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 14.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷0.918 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 7.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.998 | 4.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.238 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 1.76% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 96, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 104, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .295 → .224; ISO .169 → .125; BABIP .297 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).