A.J. Alexy
P
Wichita Wind Surge
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
K%21.8%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%7.8%
ROS IP11
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p2722.0%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.395
FB-4.1
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 7 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 43% | 2.0 | 14.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 4.61 | 5.38 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 7 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 43% | 2.0 | 20.7% | 5.2% | 15.5% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 3.90 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 24 | 24 | 94 | 392 | 113 | 51 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 21.3% | 15.4% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 3.53 | 4.30 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 24 | 24 | 94 | 392 | 113 | 51 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 28.8% | 13.0% | 15.8% | 1.5% | 3.53 | 3.15 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 22 | 20 | 108 | 452 | 138 | 52 | 5 | 91% | 4.9 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 9.0% | 1.0% | 3.58 | 3.47 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 22 | 20 | 108 | 452 | 138 | 52 | 5 | 91% | 4.9 | 30.5% | 11.5% | 19.0% | 1.1% | 3.58 | 2.59 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | 5 | 5 | 19 | 85 | 23 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 3.9 | 20.8% | 17.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 5.12 | 4.19 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | 5 | 5 | 19 | 85 | 23 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 3.9 | 27.1% | 15.3% | 11.8% | 1.2% | 5.12 | 3.41 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 14 | 88 | 352 | 93 | 44 | 10 | 67% | 4.2 | 22.7% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 2.45 | 4.45 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 14 | 88 | 352 | 93 | 44 | 10 | 67% | 4.2 | 26.4% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 2.45 | 3.96 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 16 | 103 | 475 | 109 | 65 | 26 | 46% | 2.9 | 20.7% | 13.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.29 | 6.83 | -1.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 16 | 103 | 475 | 109 | 65 | 26 | 46% | 2.9 | 22.9% | 13.7% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 6.29 | 6.16 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 16 | 4 | 21 | 118 | 21 | 41 | 4 | 25% | 1.3 | 15.7% | 36.5% | -20.8% | 2.9% | 12.00 | 7.97 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 16 | 4 | 21 | 118 | 21 | 41 | 4 | 25% | 1.3 | 17.8% | 34.7% | -16.9% | 3.4% | 12.00 | 9.43 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 7 | 3 | 18 | 91 | 16 | 26 | 0 | 43% | 2.6 | 14.2% | 31.4% | -17.2% | 0.0% | 6.87 | 5.88 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 7 | 3 | 18 | 91 | 16 | 26 | 0 | 43% | 2.6 | 17.6% | 28.6% | -11.0% | 0.0% | 6.87 | 5.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 2 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 21.4% | 13.7% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 5.00 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 13.7% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 5.00 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 5 | 36 | 161 | 29 | 30 | 6 | 50% | 3.6 | 17.7% | 18.4% | -0.6% | 3.6% | 6.08 | 5.90 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 28 | 200 | 890 | 160 | 165 | 33 | 50% | 3.6 | 17.7% | 18.4% | -0.6% | 3.6% | 6.08 | 5.90 | -1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 89 | 466 | 2023 | 421 | 322 | 62 | 65% | 3.4 | 20.8% | 15.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 5.04 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 38 | 200 | 869 | 181 | 138 | 27 | 65% | 3.4 | 20.8% | 15.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 5.04 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| A.J. Alexy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 2.8% | — | 5.06 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 20 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 68 |
| Jason García R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.7% | 13.5% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 356 | 66 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 66 |
| Darien Smith R 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 102 | 66 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 65 |
| Trent Sellers R 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.09 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 4.0% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 236 | 65 |
| Chi Chi González R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.6% | 11.0% | 2.5% | .306 | 4.76 | 13.7% | 6.8% | 327 | +0.37 | 4.00 | 800 | 65 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .211 | 4.90 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.89 | 250 | 64 |
| Connor Schultz R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 64 |
| Justin Masterson R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 64 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.0% | .278 | 6.71 | 16.4% | 2.4% | 16 | +2.71 | 4.00 | 464 | 64 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.21 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 316 | 64 |
| Jefry Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.06 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.47 | 19.8% | 6.8% | 64 | -0.59 | 3.21 | 578 | 63 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.11 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .244 | 3.82 | 15.6% | 4.1% | 68 | -0.29 | 2.20 | 286 | 63 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 63 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 63 |
| Blake Beers R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 62 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 62 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 62 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 61 |