A.J. Alexy — OGILVIE

A.J. Alexy P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153144vR 136

ERA6.29

FIP6.29

K%18.2%

BB%22.0%

K-BB%-3.8%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.395

FB-4.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	7	3	14	58	12	3	2	43%	2.0	14.1%	6.5%	7.6%	4.8%	4.61	5.38	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	7	3	14	58	12	3	2	43%	2.0	20.7%	5.2%	15.5%	3.4%	4.61	3.90	—
2017	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	24	24	94	392	113	51	6	100%	3.9	21.3%	15.4%	6.0%	2.0%	3.53	4.32	—
2017	19	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	24	24	94	392	113	51	6	100%	3.9	28.8%	13.0%	15.8%	1.5%	3.53	3.15	—
2018	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	22	20	108	452	138	52	5	91%	4.9	22.6%	13.6%	9.0%	1.2%	3.58	3.57	—
2018	20	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	22	20	108	452	138	52	5	91%	4.9	30.5%	11.5%	19.0%	1.1%	3.58	2.59	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	5	5	19	85	23	13	1	100%	3.9	20.8%	17.6%	3.2%	1.3%	5.12	4.27	—
2019	21	A+ RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	5	5	19	85	23	13	1	100%	3.9	27.1%	15.3%	11.8%	1.2%	5.12	3.41	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	14	88	352	93	44	10	67%	4.2	22.7%	13.2%	9.5%	2.9%	2.45	4.46	+0.4
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	14	88	352	93	44	10	67%	4.2	26.4%	12.5%	13.9%	2.8%	2.45	3.96	+1.0
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	16	103	475	109	65	26	46%	2.9	20.7%	13.5%	7.3%	6.6%	6.29	6.66	-2.4
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	16	103	475	109	65	26	46%	2.9	22.9%	13.7%	9.3%	5.5%	6.29	6.16	-1.9
2023	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	16	4	21	118	21	41	4	25%	1.3	14.8%	31.3%	-16.5%	3.2%	12.00	7.59	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	16	4	21	118	21	41	4	25%	1.3	14.8%	31.3%	-16.5%	3.2%	12.00	7.59	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	16	4	21	118	21	41	4	25%	1.3	17.8%	34.7%	-16.9%	3.4%	12.00	9.43	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	7	3	18	91	16	26	0	43%	2.6	14.2%	31.4%	-17.2%	0.0%	6.87	5.88	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	7	3	18	91	16	26	0	43%	2.6	14.2%	31.4%	-17.2%	0.0%	6.87	5.88	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	7	3	18	91	16	26	0	43%	2.6	17.6%	28.6%	-11.0%	0.0%	6.87	5.61	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	4	30	135	23	26	5	44%	3.3	17.0%	19.3%	-2.2%	3.7%	6.30	6.33	-0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	MIN	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	18.2%	22.0%	-3.8%	2.8%	6.29	6.29	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIN	3	3	20	84	15	18	3	100%	6.7	18.2%	21.0%	-2.8%	3.0%	6.19	6.26	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIN	1	1	6	25	5	5	1	100%	6.0	18.2%	21.0%	-2.8%	3.0%	6.19	6.26	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	5	36	161	28	32	6	50%	3.6	17.2%	19.5%	-2.3%	3.6%	6.28	6.09	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		55	28	200	890	154	177	33	50%	3.6	17.2%	19.5%	-2.3%	3.6%	6.28	6.09	-2.7
Career	—	MLE		137	89	466	2023	420	316	62	65%	3.4	20.8%	15.6%	5.2%	3.1%	4.56	5.01	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	38	200	869	181	136	27	65%	3.4	20.8%	15.6%	5.2%	3.1%	4.56	5.01	-3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
A.J. Alexy (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.29	18.2%	22.0%	2.8%	—	6.26	18.2%	-2.8%	20	-0.03	—	—	—
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	68
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	67
Bryan Garcia R 2023 · 5.88 FIP	28	SP-	5.88	12.6%	15.8%	3.4%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	319	59
Shelby Miller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	28	SP-	5.18	15.3%	14.4%	2.8%	.316	3.65	26.6%	15.5%	90	-1.53	2.80	694	57
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.91	14.2%	5.1%	266	-0.75	4.32	277	55
Jake Walters R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	27	SW	5.89	14.8%	13.9%	4.2%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	261	55
Riley Thompson R 2023 · 5.81 FIP	27	SP-	5.81	17.8%	12.9%	4.7%	.284	4.53	17.0%	8.1%	107	-1.28	4.53	340	55
Rafael Pineda R 2017 · 5.26 FIP	26	SP-	5.26	6.5%	9.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	101	55
Tyler Beede R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	28	SP	5.72	18.0%	18.9%	3.2%	.301	4.77	16.3%	5.8%	98	-0.95	3.79	776	55
Johnny Hellweg R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	27	SP	5.43	8.9%	14.1%	2.4%	.370	2.98	20.2%	7.7%	27	-2.45	2.98	109	54
Jayden Murray R 2023 · 5.97 FIP	26	SP-	5.97	16.4%	13.6%	4.6%	.385	3.87	20.2%	9.7%	122	-2.10	3.80	363	54
Noah Bremer R 2023 · 5.82 FIP	27	SP	5.82	13.1%	11.9%	4.2%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	271	53
Alex Blackford R 2017 · 5.59 FIP	26	SP	5.59	14.9%	12.5%	4.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	229	53
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	53
Aaron Blair R 2021 · 5.63 FIP	29	SP	5.63	12.0%	13.5%	3.4%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	464	52
Victor Mateo R 2016 · 5.45 FIP	27	SW	5.45	10.2%	12.2%	3.0%	.370	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	199	52
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	52
Bryan Mitchell R 2019 · 6.44 FIP	28	SP	6.44	13.7%	13.1%	5.2%	.360	4.61	18.1%	6.7%	97	-1.83	2.72	481	52
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	51
Miller Hogan R 2022 · 6.75 FIP	26	SP	6.75	14.0%	11.9%	6.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	168	50