Bryan Garcia
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136126vR 117
ERA5.12
FIP5.18
K%20.8%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%8.2%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2792.9
Whiff%
p4524.6%
K%
p3620.2%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
CH+2.6
SL-1.1
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 40.50 | 1.41 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 40.50 | 0.10 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 52 | 0 | 55 | 216 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 9.4% | 17.8% | 1.0% | 2.13 | 2.53 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 52 | 0 | 55 | 216 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 36.1% | 8.3% | 27.8% | 0.9% | 2.13 | 1.72 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 54 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 4.31 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 54 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 16.9% | 3.5% | 4.31 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 26 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 12.9% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 1.66 | 3.37 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 26 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 12.9% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 1.66 | 3.38 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 63 | 296 | 51 | 32 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.75 | 5.68 | -0.8 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 63 | 296 | 51 | 32 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 6.75 | 5.70 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 15 | 106 | 439 | 86 | 44 | 14 | 35% | 2.5 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 3.75 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 15 | 106 | 439 | 86 | 44 | 14 | 35% | 2.5 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 3.75 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 15 | 9 | 49 | 256 | 39 | 45 | 7 | 60% | 3.3 | 13.4% | 18.5% | -5.1% | 3.8% | 6.98 | 6.39 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 15 | 9 | 49 | 256 | 39 | 45 | 7 | 60% | 3.3 | 15.2% | 17.6% | -2.3% | 2.7% | 6.98 | 6.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 49 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 12.6% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 5.12 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 44 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 12.7% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 39 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 12.9% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 5.39 | 5.55 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 34 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 13.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.61 | 5.79 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 12.7% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 22 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 12.9% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 5.39 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 13.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.61 | 5.79 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 4 | 154 | 682 | 123 | 84 | 25 | 3% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 12.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 5.48 | 5.14 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 180 | 5 | 200 | 884 | 159 | 109 | 32 | 3% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 12.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 5.48 | 5.14 | +0.6 | ||
| Career | — | 240 | 24 | 343 | 1506 | 275 | 177 | 49 | 10% | 1.4 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.83 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 14 | 200 | 879 | 160 | 103 | 28 | 10% | 1.4 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 20.8% | 12.6% | 3.4% | — | 5.55 | 19.7% | 6.8% | 141 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 88 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 83 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 82 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 81 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 80 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 78 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 78 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.89 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 2.69 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.20 | 1.51 | 544 | 77 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | .270 | 4.93 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.27 | 2.90 | 227 | 76 |
| Grant Black R 2024 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 76 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 75 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 9.8% | 0.3% | 53 | -0.69 | 4.11 | 156 | 75 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.78 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .282 | 3.61 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 136 | -1.17 | 2.95 | 260 | 74 |
| Noah Song R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 74 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .268 | 4.46 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 136 | +0.17 | 2.78 | 596 | 74 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.88 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 114 | 74 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 20.0% | 12.8% | 1.43 | 5.32 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |