Bryan Garcia
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.0
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
xFIP4.96
SIERA4.80
K%21.7%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%10.9%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3535
CMD3030
K†5050
FB Velo
p2792.9
Whiff%
p4524.6%
K%
p3620.2%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
CH+2.6
SL-1.1
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 40.50 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 52 | 0 | 55 | 216 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 27.2% | 9.4% | 1.1% | 2.13 | 2.59 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 54 | 20 | 7 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.31 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 26 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 12.9% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 1.66 | 3.37 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 58 | 0 | 63 | 296 | 51 | 32 | 13 | 16.5% | 10.9% | 4.5% | 6.75 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 43 | 15 | 106 | 439 | 86 | 44 | 14 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 3.75 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 15 | 9 | 49 | 256 | 39 | 45 | 7 | 13.4% | 18.5% | 3.2% | 6.98 | 6.09 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 34 | 21 | 5 | 20.7% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 5.12 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 30 | 19 | 5 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 5.18 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 28 | 18 | 5 | 19.4% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 5.27 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 18.8% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 5.39 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 23 | 16 | 5 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 5.54 | 5.64 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 24 | 343 | 1506 | 275 | 177 | 46 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.74 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 14 | 200 | 879 | 161 | 103 | 27 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.74 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.17 | 20.7% | 12.6% | 3.4% | — | 5.27 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 88 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 82 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 81 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 79 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 79 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 79 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.33 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 200 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 78 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 78 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 77 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 76 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 76 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.48 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .293 | 3.45 | 27.6% | 18.2% | 147 | -1.03 | 3.02 | 363 | 75 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.0% | .300 | 4.15 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.15 | 3.81 | 208 | 75 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 75 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 75 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.59 | 17.2% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 241 | 75 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.31 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 104 | 74 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 21.1% | 15.3% | 2.6% | .233 | 3.85 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 46 | -0.81 | 2.47 | 231 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.