Bryan Garcia — OGILVIE

Bryan Garcia P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.05

FIP5.11

K%20.7%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p4524.6%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p200.348

CH+2.6

SL-1.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	0.7	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	40.50	1.41	—
2016	21	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	0.7	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	40.50	0.10	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	52	0	55	216	78	18	2	0%	1.1	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	1.1%	2.13	2.59	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	52	0	55	216	78	18	2	0%	1.1	36.1%	8.3%	27.8%	0.9%	2.13	1.72	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	45	0	48	201	54	20	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.7%	10.4%	3.6%	4.31	4.64	-0.1
2019	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	45	0	48	201	54	20	7	0%	1.1	26.9%	10.0%	16.9%	3.5%	4.31	4.00	+0.3
2020	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	26	0	22	93	12	10	0	0%	0.8	12.9%	10.8%	2.2%	0.0%	1.66	3.37	+0.3
2020	25	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	26	0	22	93	12	10	0	0%	0.8	12.9%	10.8%	2.2%	0.0%	1.66	3.38	+0.3
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	63	296	51	32	13	0%	1.1	16.5%	10.9%	5.5%	4.6%	6.75	5.62	-0.8
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	63	296	51	32	13	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.8%	6.4%	4.4%	6.75	5.70	-0.8
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	15	106	439	86	44	14	35%	2.5	17.7%	10.4%	7.3%	3.4%	3.75	4.79	-0.3
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	15	106	439	86	44	14	35%	2.5	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	3.2%	3.75	4.44	+0.1
2023	28	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	15	9	49	256	39	45	7	60%	3.3	12.6%	15.8%	-3.2%	3.4%	6.98	5.88	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	15	9	49	256	39	45	7	60%	3.3	12.6%	15.8%	-3.2%	3.4%	6.98	5.88	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	15	9	49	256	39	45	7	60%	3.3	15.2%	17.6%	-2.3%	2.7%	6.98	6.12	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			76	4	88	402	68	48	14	5%	1.2	16.9%	11.9%	5.0%	3.5%	5.52	5.26	-0.7
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	HOU	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	12.2%	8.6%	3.4%	5.05	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	HOU	49	0	51	216	44	27	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.3%	7.9%	3.6%	5.16	5.29	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	HOU	45	0	47	198	39	25	8	0%	1.0	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	3.8%	5.33	5.50	-0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	HOU	41	0	43	181	34	23	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.8%	6.0%	4.1%	5.55	5.74	-0.6
2027	32	MLB CTX	HOU	18	0	19	80	16	10	3	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.3%	7.9%	3.6%	5.16	5.29	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	HOU	25	0	26	110	22	14	4	0%	1.0	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	3.8%	5.33	5.50	-0.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	HOU	21	0	22	93	18	12	4	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.8%	6.0%	4.1%	5.55	5.74	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		139	4	154	682	123	83	25	3%	1.1	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	3.6%	5.45	5.11	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	5	200	884	159	108	32	3%	1.1	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	3.6%	5.45	5.11	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		240	24	343	1506	273	170	47	10%	1.4	18.1%	11.3%	6.8%	3.1%	4.52	4.70	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	14	200	879	159	99	27	10%	1.4	18.1%	11.3%	6.8%	3.1%	4.52	4.70	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	20.7%	12.2%	3.4%	—	5.50	19.6%	7.1%	141	+0.39	—	—	—
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	87
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	84
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	82
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	81
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	80
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	79
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	78
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	77
Javy Guerra R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SU	4.66	16.7%	8.6%	3.4%	.282	3.61	20.9%	15.1%	136	-1.05	2.95	260	75
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	75
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	75
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	75
Junichi Tazawa R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	16.0%	7.6%	3.5%	.270	4.81	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.16	2.94	227	75
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	74
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	74
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	74
Jeff Manship R 2016 · 4.87 FIP	31	SU	4.87	19.0%	10.6%	3.7%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	114	74
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	19.9%	12.4%	1.42	5.25
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43