Shelby Miller
P
Milwaukee Brewers
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA3.57
FIP3.86
xFIP3.67
SIERA3.11
K%25.5%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%18.5%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p9031.7%
K%
p8729.0%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
FB+6.6 (62%)
SL-0.8 (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 33 | 205 | 860 | 171 | 65 | 13 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 1.6% | 3.02 | 3.26 | +4.8 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 30 | 30 | 164 | 715 | 144 | 50 | 18 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 5.06 | 3.93 | +2.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4 | 4 | 22 | 99 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 1.0% | 4.09 | 3.33 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 9 | 8 | 35 | 160 | 47 | 14 | 6 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 7.39 | 5.99 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 27 | 16 | 77 | 360 | 66 | 47 | 10 | 15.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 6.69 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 26 | 4 | 37 | 160 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 25.4% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 47 | 1 | 60 | 251 | 83 | 23 | 4 | 27.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 3.28 | 3.15 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 44 | 4 | 49 | 198 | 57 | 21 | 5 | 25.8% | 10.4% | 1.8% | 2.40 | 3.22 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 53 | 1 | 58 | 235 | 52 | 14 | 9 | 21.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.34 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 49 | 0 | 47 | 189 | 57 | 11 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 2.68 | 2.77 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 10 | — | 10 | 42 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 3.51 | 3.88 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 30 | 9 | 4 | 24.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 3.83 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 322 | 101 | 754 | 3227 | 678 | 288 | 81 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 3.84 | +12.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 27 | 200 | 856 | 180 | 76 | 21 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 3.84 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shelby Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.88 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.04 | 24.6% | 17.3% | 29 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.68 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.90 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12 | +1.22 | 3.43 | 132 | 74 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 70 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 69 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 197 | 67 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .246 | 3.43 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | -0.03 | 2.00 | 380 | 67 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 66 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 66 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.97 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 284 | 65 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.03 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.25 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.22 | 3.01 | 119 | 65 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 64 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 64 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.61 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.94 | 268 | 64 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.43 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.54 | 2.80 | 128 | 64 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 63 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 63 |
| Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.45 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 426 | 63 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.4% | .248 | 4.29 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.40 | 2.89 | 326 | 63 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 62 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2025 · 2.85 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.85 | 25.4% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 186 | 62 |
| Homer Bailey R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.38 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 3.4% | .370 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 509 | 62 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.