Shelby Miller — OGILVIE

Shelby Miller P Iowa Cubs

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10193vR 85

ERA3.76

FIP3.86

K%25.8%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%18.8%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p9031.7%

p8729.0%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

FB+6.6 (62%)

SL-0.8 (9%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	33	33	205	860	171	65	13	100%	6.2	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	1.6%	3.02	3.28	+4.1
2015	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	33	33	205	860	171	65	13	100%	6.2	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	1.5%	3.02	3.21	+4.3
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	30	164	715	144	50	18	100%	5.5	17.7%	7.4%	10.3%	2.7%	5.06	4.01	+1.7
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	30	164	715	144	50	18	100%	5.5	20.1%	7.0%	13.1%	2.5%	5.06	3.69	+2.4
2017	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	4	4	22	99	20	11	1	100%	5.5	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	1.0%	4.09	3.35	+0.4
2017	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	4	4	22	99	20	11	1	100%	5.5	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	1.0%	4.09	3.37	+0.4
2018	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	8	35	160	47	14	6	89%	3.9	24.1%	10.1%	13.9%	6.7%	7.39	6.03	-0.4
2018	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	8	35	160	47	14	6	89%	3.9	29.4%	8.8%	20.6%	3.8%	7.39	3.84	+0.4
2019	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	77	360	66	47	10	59%	2.8	15.3%	14.4%	0.9%	2.8%	6.69	5.18	-0.2
2019	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	16	77	360	66	47	10	59%	2.8	18.3%	13.1%	5.3%	2.8%	6.69	4.91	-0.0
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	4	37	160	45	20	5	15%	1.4	25.4%	12.8%	12.6%	3.3%	5.11	4.38	+0.1
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	4	37	160	45	20	5	15%	1.4	28.1%	12.5%	15.6%	3.1%	5.11	4.05	+0.2
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	60	251	83	23	4	2%	1.3	27.5%	10.0%	17.5%	2.0%	3.28	3.15	+1.0
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	60	251	83	23	4	2%	1.3	33.1%	9.2%	23.9%	1.6%	3.28	2.35	+1.6
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	4	49	198	57	21	5	9%	1.1	25.8%	10.4%	15.3%	1.8%	2.40	3.21	+0.8
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	4	49	198	57	21	5	9%	1.1	25.8%	10.4%	15.3%	1.8%	2.40	3.21	+0.8
2023	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	4	49	198	57	21	5	9%	1.1	28.8%	10.6%	18.2%	2.5%	2.40	3.39	+0.7
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	58	235	52	14	9	2%	1.1	21.8%	5.8%	16.0%	4.2%	4.34	4.29	+0.2
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	58	235	52	14	9	2%	1.1	21.8%	5.8%	16.0%	4.2%	4.34	4.29	+0.2
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	58	235	52	14	9	2%	1.1	22.1%	6.0%	16.2%	3.8%	4.34	4.05	+0.3
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	47	189	57	11	5	0%	1.0	29.0%	5.9%	23.1%	2.6%	2.68	2.80	+1.0
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	47	189	57	11	5	0%	1.0	29.0%	5.9%	23.1%	2.6%	2.68	2.80	+1.0
2025	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	47	189	57	11	5	0%	1.0	30.2%	5.8%	24.3%	2.6%	2.68	2.76	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			233	70	552	2384	477	205	61	30%	2.4	20.0%	8.6%	11.4%	2.6%	4.52	3.92	+4.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	12	0	10	46	17	7	1	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	8.38	—	—
YTD	35	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	12	0	10	46	17	7	1	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	8.38	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	AA RAW	CHC	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-5.34	—
2026	35	AAA RAW	CHC	11	0	9	43	14	7	1	0%	0.8	32.6%	16.3%	16.3%	2.3%	9.35	3.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	CHC	28	0	30	125	31	10	4	0%	1.1	24.8%	7.7%	17.2%	3.4%	4.04	4.23	+0.1
2027	36	MLB CTX	CHC	29	0	30	127	31	10	4	0%	1.0	24.8%	7.7%	17.2%	3.3%	3.97	4.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		261	70	581	2509	508	215	65	27%	2.2	20.2%	8.6%	11.7%	2.6%	4.49	3.90	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		90	24	200	863	175	74	22	27%	2.2	20.2%	8.6%	11.7%	2.6%	4.49	3.90	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		334	101	764	3273	695	295	85	30%	2.3	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	2.6%	4.29	3.87	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	26	200	857	182	77	22	30%	2.3	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	2.6%	4.29	3.87	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shelby Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.86	25.8%	7.1%	3.0%	—	4.23	24.8%	17.2%	30	+0.37	—	—	—
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	35	SU	3.72	26.2%	8.6%	3.2%	.303	5.02	17.5%	4.8%	12	+1.30	3.45	132	67
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	64
Joakim Soria R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	35	SU	3.52	28.4%	6.8%	3.6%	.246	3.45	25.1%	17.7%	60	-0.07	2.01	380	64
John Axford R 2018 · 3.64 FIP	35	SU	3.64	23.2%	9.0%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	197	63
Carlos Torres R 2018 · 2.89 FIP	35	SU	2.89	22.3%	7.3%	1.4%	.248	4.28	17.8%	8.8%	62	+1.39	2.89	326	62
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	61
Jumbo Diaz R 2019 · 2.98 FIP	35	SU	2.98	25.0%	7.7%	1.8%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	284	61
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	60
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	59
Luis Ayala R 2015 · 3.03 FIP	37	SU	3.03	19.7%	5.0%	1.7%	.270	3.27	12.1%	5.9%	57	+0.24	3.03	119	59
Tony Pena Jr. R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	35	SU	2.87	21.5%	4.3%	1.9%	.249	3.43	10.9%	6.6%	22	+0.56	2.80	128	59
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	59
Tony Barnette R 2018 · 2.61 FIP	34	SU	2.61	25.0%	4.8%	1.8%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	2.61	144	58
Greg Holland R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	21.8%	9.9%	4.0%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	268	58
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	58
Shawn Kelley R 2019 · 4.97 FIP	35	SU	4.97	21.0%	4.4%	5.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	232	57
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	56
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	56
Joe Blanton R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	35	SU	3.01	25.4%	7.0%	2.1%	.233	4.94	20.0%	14.4%	44	+1.93	3.01	240	56
Brandon Morrow R 2018 · 2.82 FIP	34	SU	2.82	25.4%	7.4%	1.7%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	186	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	25.3%	7.4%	1.25	3.90
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47