Shelby Miller
P
Milwaukee Brewers
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10393vR 84
ERA3.80
FIP3.93
K%25.8%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%18.8%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p9031.7%
K%
p8729.0%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
FB+6.6 (62%)
SL-0.8 (9%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 33 | 205 | 860 | 171 | 65 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 1.5% | 3.02 | 3.21 | +5.3 |
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 33 | 205 | 860 | 171 | 65 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 1.5% | 3.02 | 3.21 | +5.3 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 30 | 164 | 715 | 144 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 5.06 | 3.95 | +2.8 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 30 | 164 | 715 | 144 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 5.06 | 3.69 | +3.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4 | 4 | 22 | 99 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 1.0% | 4.09 | 3.33 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4 | 4 | 22 | 99 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 1.0% | 4.09 | 3.37 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 8 | 35 | 160 | 47 | 14 | 6 | 89% | 3.9 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 6.1% | 7.39 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 8 | 35 | 160 | 47 | 14 | 6 | 89% | 3.9 | 29.4% | 8.8% | 20.6% | 3.8% | 7.39 | 3.84 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 16 | 77 | 360 | 66 | 47 | 10 | 59% | 2.8 | 15.3% | 14.4% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 6.69 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 16 | 77 | 360 | 66 | 47 | 10 | 59% | 2.8 | 18.3% | 13.1% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 6.69 | 4.91 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 4 | 37 | 160 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 15% | 1.4 | 25.4% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 5.11 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 4 | 37 | 160 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 15% | 1.4 | 28.1% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 1 | 60 | 251 | 83 | 23 | 4 | 2% | 1.3 | 27.5% | 10.0% | 17.5% | 2.0% | 3.28 | 3.16 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 1 | 60 | 251 | 83 | 23 | 4 | 2% | 1.3 | 33.1% | 9.2% | 23.9% | 1.6% | 3.28 | 2.35 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 4 | 49 | 198 | 57 | 21 | 5 | 9% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 1.9% | 2.40 | 3.31 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 4 | 49 | 198 | 57 | 21 | 5 | 9% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 10.6% | 18.2% | 2.5% | 2.40 | 3.39 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 58 | 235 | 52 | 14 | 9 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 5.8% | 16.0% | 4.4% | 4.34 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 58 | 235 | 52 | 14 | 9 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 16.2% | 3.8% | 4.34 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 47 | 189 | 57 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 5.9% | 23.1% | 2.8% | 2.68 | 2.93 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 47 | 189 | 57 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.2% | 5.8% | 24.3% | 2.6% | 2.68 | 2.76 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 0 | 22 | 95 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 7.1% | 18.8% | 3.2% | 3.80 | 3.93 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 0 | 30 | 125 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 7.7% | 17.2% | 3.5% | 4.10 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 7.7% | 17.2% | 3.5% | 4.06 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 261 | 70 | 581 | 2509 | 508 | 215 | 65 | 27% | 2.2 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 3.90 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 24 | 200 | 863 | 175 | 74 | 22 | 27% | 2.2 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 322 | 101 | 754 | 3227 | 678 | 288 | 82 | 31% | 2.3 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 3.85 | +13.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 27 | 200 | 856 | 180 | 76 | 22 | 31% | 2.3 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shelby Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.93 | 25.8% | 7.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.30 | 24.8% | 17.2% | 30 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.55 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .303 | 5.07 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12 | +1.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 63 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 61 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 60 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 60 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.78 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 197 | 59 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.78 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .248 | 4.25 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.47 | 2.78 | 326 | 58 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 58 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.91 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.54 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.63 | 2.79 | 128 | 57 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 57 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.96 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 284 | 57 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 57 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 56 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 55 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.21 | 21.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 212 | 55 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 55 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.60 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 227 | 55 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.68 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.97 | 268 | 54 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.03 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.28 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.75 | 2.03 | 804 | 54 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 54 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.71 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 46 | -0.36 | 3.08 | 349 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 25.3% | 7.4% | 1.31 | 3.97 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Adbert Alzolay ('23) | 3 | 70 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |