Kale Emshoff — OGILVIE

Kale EmshoffC Frisco RoughRiders

Age 28 R/R 6'2" / 228 lbs AA K +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.1 · 2026

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .259 / .326

PA136

HR4

K%35

BB%7

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20→20

PWR

51→51

SPD

45→45

EYE

39→39

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.1peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$-4M		$-7M	-$3M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A	2 teams	267	238	44	11	1	7	23	119	5	0	0	.185	.271	.328	.598	.143	.327	45	9	.262	58	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	-0.0
2022	24	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	415	376	61	13	0	8	24	185	11	2	2	.162	.234	.261	.494	.098	.283	45	6	.223	29	-33	-0	+0	+7	+12	-1.5
2023	25	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	353	324	59	12	2	7	23	115	4	2	1	.182	.245	.296	.541	.114	.255	33	7	.238	40	-24	+0	+0	+6	+10	-0.8
2024	26	A+	2 teams	236	219	40	8	0	8	11	101	4	2	0	.183	.235	.329	.564	.146	.286	43	5	.249	49	-14	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.2
2025	27	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	19	17	1	0	0	0	2	11	0	0	0	.059	.158	.059	.217	.000	.167	58	11	.138	-36	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	TEX	136	125	26	5	1	4	9	48	1	2	0	.208	.267	.360	.627	.152	.283	35	7	.265	61	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	29	MLB 9%	TEX	194	176	36	7	1	5	14	66	2	2	1	.205	.271	.341	.612	.136	.283	34	7	.268	64	-8	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.0
2028	30	MLB 19%	TEX	254	231	47	9	1	7	18	85	3	3	1	.203	.270	.342	.612	.139	.282	33	7	.270	64	-10	+0	-2	+5	+7	-0.0
2029	31	MLB 29%	TEX	257	233	46	9	1	6	19	86	3	2	0	.197	.267	.322	.589	.124	.281	33	7	.269	64	-11	+0	-3	+5	+7	-0.1
2030	32	MLB 40%	TEX	246	224	45	9	1	6	18	83	2	2	0	.201	.266	.330	.597	.129	.280	34	7	.265	61	-11	+0	-4	+4	+7	-0.3
2031	33	MLB 54%	TEX	220	200	39	7	1	5	16	76	2	1	0	.195	.261	.315	.576	.120	.278	35	7	.260	57	-11	+0	-4	+4	+6	-0.5
2032	34	MLB 71%	TEX	182	165	32	6	1	4	13	64	2	1	0	.194	.261	.315	.576	.121	.276	35	7	.253	52	-10	+0	-5	+3	+5	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			2779	2528	476	96	10	67	190	1039	39	19	5	.188	.256	.314	.569	.125	.284	37	7	.253	51	-152	+2	-19	+50	+79	-4.2
/ 162G	—			650	591	111	22	2	16	44	243	9	4	1	.188	.254	.313	.567	.125	.283	37	7	.253	51	-36	+0	-4	+12	+18	-1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	33	27	6	2	0	0	6	13	0	0	0	.222	.364	.296	.660	.074	.429	39	18	.314	99	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2021	23	A	Columbia Fireflies	234	198	54	14	1	10	30	74	5	0	0	.273	.382	.505	.887	.232	.383	32	13	.390	157	+15	+0	—	—	+7	2.2
2022	24	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	415	361	81	19	0	12	39	148	11	2	2	.224	.319	.377	.695	.152	.337	36	9	.313	98	-1	-0	—	—	+12	1.1
2023	25	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	353	316	71	15	2	10	29	91	4	2	1	.225	.296	.380	.676	.155	.281	26	8	.301	89	-5	+0	—	—	+10	0.6
2024	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	93	87	19	6	0	3	5	38	1	0	0	.218	.269	.391	.660	.172	.348	41	5	.293	82	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2024	26	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	143	127	35	7	0	7	11	41	3	2	0	.276	.348	.496	.844	.220	.346	29	8	.367	139	+6	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
2025	27	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	19	16	2	0	0	0	3	8	0	0	0	.125	.263	.125	.388	.000	.250	42	16	.205	15	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kale Emshoff (OGILVIE)	28	20	51	45	39	.195/.259/.326	.131	.283	4	2	35%	7%	61	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gabe Johnson 2008 · AAA	28	38	48→50	45→40	40	.198/.259/.337	.138	.279	17	5	35%	7%	63	-0.8	.207/.265/.317	.110	.307	10	8	34%	7%	59	-1.1	.179/.239/.258	.079	.273	6	4	35%	7%	31	-0.7
✕Dave Wallace 2008 · AAA	28	34	47→45	43→40	42	.182/.258/.310	.127	.254	16	5	34%	8%	56	-1.3	.209/.277/.329	.120	.281	13	6	29%	8%	69	-0.4	.205/.282/.307	.102	.267	11	0	26%	8%	64	-0.2
✕Kevin Richardson 2010 · AAA	29	36	48→50	43→40	35	.191/.246/.323	.132	.283	17	3	38%	5%	54	-1.4	.200/.247/.340	.140	.324	17	5	42%	5%	59	-1.1	.191/.237/.332	.141	.307	18	2	42%	4%	49	-0.8
✕David Masters 2021 · AA	28	42→36	46→45	42→40	43	.212/.279/.339	.128	.290	14	3	31%	8%	72	-0.2	.215/.274/.369	.154	.312	19	8	36%	7%	78	+0.2	.170/.231/.347	.178	.226	28	6	39%	6%	50	-0.4
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	39→37	49→50	51→50	36	.205/.244/.348	.143	.271	17	12	31%	4%	59	-1.1	.225/.280/.351	.126	.287	13	10	26%	6%	75	-0.0	.235/.302/.339	.104	.296	10	6	23%	6%	79	+0.1
✕Brian Serven 2022 · AAA	27	35	49→50	46→30	38	.191/.245/.335	.144	.238	18	5	29%	5%	57	-1.2	.196/.257/.319	.123	.257	15	4	29%	6%	57	-1.2	.182/.252/.278	.096	.251	12	0	31%	7%	42	-0.9
✕Jorge Saez 2018 · AA	27	39	48→45	46→30	42	.203/.267/.339	.136	.286	17	4	34%	8%	67	-0.5	.210/.276/.341	.131	.299	17	6	33%	8%	71	-0.3	.174/.247/.285	.110	.242	17	3	34%	8%	42	-0.6
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB	28	40	46→45	45→30	44	.206/.272/.331	.125	.276	15	4	30%	8%	66	-0.6	.196/.260/.306	.110	.334	12	5	42%	7%	55	-1.4	.177/.244/.263	.086	.329	9	1	46%	8%	34	-0.9
✕Andrew Susac 2018 · MLB	28	37→39	48→50	47→30	43	.197/.261/.333	.136	.264	16	3	31%	8%	63	-0.9	.206/.283/.350	.144	.290	17	7	33%	9%	76	+0.1	.198/.293/.339	.141	.281	18	0	34%	11%	76	+0.0
✕Jason Delay 2022 · AAA	27	38	47→45	48→40	33	.198/.238/.325	.127	.287	15	6	36%	4%	50	-1.7	.216/.269/.301	.085	.295	5	5	27%	6%	56	-1.3	.226/.285/.301	.075	.297	3	2	23%	6%	61	-0.4
✕Aaron Sisk 2007 · AA	28	40	50	47→45	43	.211/.269/.364	.152	.271	18	10	29%	7%	74	-0.1	.223/.279/.372	.149	.284	19	8	28%	7%	80	+0.4	.227/.285/.382	.154	.278	22	3	26%	6%	84	+0.3
✕Matt Spring 2013 · AA	28	35	48→50	40→45	35	.185/.242/.321	.136	.292	16	4	41%	6%	52	-1.6	.190/.243/.340	.150	.296	18	3	40%	6%	57	-1.2	.167/.219/.320	.153	.245	20	0	40%	5%	40	-0.8
✕Seby Zavala 2021 · AAA	27	38→39	50	41→40	35	.199/.251/.349	.150	.288	19	4	37%	6%	63	-0.9	.197/.262/.338	.141	.315	17	4	40%	7%	65	-0.7	.193/.272/.319	.126	.301	14	1	38%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA	28	38	44→45	48→30	43	.197/.260/.308	.111	.260	13	6	29%	7%	56	-1.3	.211/.260/.328	.117	.271	13	5	26%	6%	60	-1.0	.210/.254/.324	.114	.266	12	1	25%	5%	54	-0.6
✕Patrick Dorrian 2023 · AAA	27	38→37	50→55	47→45	41	.196/.266/.350	.154	.290	19	6	38%	8%	70	-0.3	.196/.260/.343	.147	.289	18	6	37%	7%	65	-0.7	.181/.245/.318	.137	.261	18	5	37%	7%	49	-1.0
✕Jake Means 2023 · AA	27	35→30	47→45	50→45	43	.183/.260/.318	.135	.266	15	9	36%	9%	59	-1.1	.181/.252/.301	.120	.260	14	10	34%	8%	51	-1.7	.130/.207/.227	.097	.172	15	8	34%	8%	11	-2.0
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→39	46→50	46→45	50	.191/.285/.319	.128	.261	14	9	31%	11%	70	-0.3	.189/.283/.313	.124	.261	14	10	31%	11%	68	-0.5	.168/.270/.287	.119	.228	14	8	31%	11%	54	-0.9
✕Brandon Hicks 2015 · MLB	29	36→40	50	46→50	41	.190/.266/.341	.151	.284	18	7	38%	8%	68	-0.5	.188/.260/.304	.116	.308	13	8	40%	8%	55	-1.4	.166/.236/.251	.085	.293	9	8	44%	8%	28	-1.3
✕John Nelson 2007 · AAA	28	34→35	47→45	48→45	37	.181/.241/.311	.129	.276	16	9	39%	6%	49	-1.8	.189/.246/.332	.143	.280	19	8	38%	6%	56	-1.3	.158/.218/.302	.144	.215	22	0	38%	6%	36	-1.3
✕Alvin Colina 2010 · AAA	28	41	45	45→40	39	.209/.261/.332	.122	.276	14	5	29%	5%	62	-0.9	.215/.263/.342	.127	.288	15	7	30%	5%	66	-0.6	.180/.219/.291	.112	.242	14	3	32%	3%	31	-1.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)