Duke Ellis

CF Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 29 L/L 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	27	AAAScranton/Wilk…	192	.322/.371/.468	3	36	91	—	.282/.317/.395
2025	27	A+NYY	21	.353/.476/.706	2	1	153	—	.278/.381/.611
2026	28	AAAScranton/Wilk…	307	.276/.342/.397	5	60	74	—	.249/.299/.349
2027PROJ10% MLB	29	MLBNYY	25	.221/.271/.319	0	3	65	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	30	MLBNYY	80	.220/.271/.316	1	9	64	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed99

Max EV70

Z-Con%56

Chase%54

Whiff%53

K%47

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsTyler Wade (age 29) · Darren Ford (age 29) · Billy Hamilton (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .271 / .319

PA25

HR0

K%28

BB%4

BABIP294

ISO42

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024

CONTACT60

Whiff%

904.3%

POWER45

Bat Spd

2969.1

EYE35

Chase%

7327.3%

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	260	52	8	0	4	23	77	4	23	4	200	274	277	551	77	267	27	8	254	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	27	22	7	1	0	1	3	8	1	7	1	318	423	500	923	182	462	30	11	397	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	432	374	102	17	3	7	45	108	7	50	8	273	360	390	750	118	364	25	10	337	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	63	51	8	1	1	0	12	21	0	3	1	157	317	216	533	59	267	33	19	265	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	131	118	23	2	2	4	11	35	1	23	2	195	269	347	617	153	237	27	8	276	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	148	126	33	3	0	1	13	32	4	34	2	262	350	310	659	48	337	22	9	299	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	192	171	55	14	1	3	14	49	0	36	7	322	371	468	839	146	433	26	7	360	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	21	17	6	0	0	2	3	4	1	1	0	353	476	706	1.182	353	364	19	14	505	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	18	15	1	1	0	0	3	6	0	3	0	67	222	133	356	67	111	33	17	188	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	307	272	75	12	3	5	25	69	3	60	9	276	342	397	739	121	350	22	8	326	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	269	41	6	0	3	15	107	4	23	4	152	208	208	417	56	236	37	5	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	27	24	7	1	0	1	1	10	1	7	1	292	346	458	804	167	425	37	4	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	432	395	86	12	2	6	26	149	7	50	8	218	278	304	582	86	325	34	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	63	55	7	1	1	0	8	27	0	3	1	127	238	182	420	55	234	43	13	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	131	121	22	2	2	3	8	42	1	23	2	182	238	306	544	124	234	32	6	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	148	130	35	3	0	1	9	37	4	34	2	269	336	315	651	46	339	25	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	192	177	50	12	1	2	9	60	0	36	7	282	317	395	713	113	396	31	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	21	18	5	0	0	2	2	5	1	1	0	278	381	611	992	333	299	24	10	394	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	18	16	1	1	0	0	2	9	0	3	0	62	167	125	292	62	72	50	11	105	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	307	281	70	10	3	4	17	83	3	60	9	249	299	349	648	100	326	27	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	269	41	6	0	3	15	107	4	23	4	152	208	208	417	56	237	37	5	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	260	52	8	0	4	23	77	4	23	4	200	274	277	551	77	267	27	8	254	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	459	419	93	13	2	7	27	158	8	57	9	222	282	313	595	91	336	34	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	459	396	109	18	3	8	48	116	8	57	9	275	363	396	760	121	369	25	10	341	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	63	55	7	1	1	0	8	27	0	3	1	127	238	182	420	55	250	43	13	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	—	63	51	8	1	1	0	12	21	0	3	1	157	317	216	533	59	267	33	19	265	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	279	251	56	5	2	4	17	80	5	57	4	223	286	307	592	84	306	29	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	279	244	56	5	2	5	24	67	5	57	4	230	311	328	639	98	291	24	9	288	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	231	211	56	12	1	4	13	74	1	40	7	265	311	389	700	123	388	32	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	231	203	62	15	1	5	20	59	1	40	7	305	369	463	832	158	407	26	9	360	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	307	281	70	10	3	4	17	83	3	60	9	249	299	349	648	100	337	27	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	307	272	75	12	3	5	25	69	3	60	9	276	342	397	739	121	350	22	8	326	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	269	41	6	0	3	15	107	4	23	4	152	208	208	417	56	236	37	5	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	459	421	93	13	2	7	27	158	8	57	9	221	282	311	593	90	331	34	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	63	55	7	1	1	0	8	27	0	3	1	127	238	182	420	55	234	43	13	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	279	255	56	5	2	4	17	80	5	57	4	220	286	302	588	82	290	29	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	231	215	56	12	1	4	13	74	1	40	7	260	311	381	693	121	362	32	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	307	284	70	10	3	4	17	83	3	60	9	246	299	345	644	99	326	27	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	279	255	56	5	2	4	17	80	5	57	4	220	286	302	588	82	290	29	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	231	215	56	12	1	4	13	74	1	40	7	260	311	381	693	121	362	32	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	307	284	70	10	3	4	17	83	3	60	9	246	299	345	644	99	326	27	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	NYY	10%	327	303	66	11	2	4	18	89	3	42	6	221	271	316	587	95	294	27	6	264	65	-14	+6	-0	+1	+7	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	NYY	10%	25	24	5	1	0	0	1	7	0	3	0	221	271	319	590	97	294	28	4	265	65	-1	+1	-0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	NYY	27%	292	272	60	10	2	4	16	80	2	33	5	219	270	313	583	94	293	27	5	263	64	-13	+5	-2	+1	+6	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	NYY	27%	80	75	17	3	1	1	4	22	1	9	1	220	271	316	587	96	293	28	5	264	64	-3	+1	-1	+0	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	80	75	17	3	1	1	4	22	1	9	1	227	275	333	608	107	308	28	5	264	59	-3	+1	-1	+0	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	609	138	24	8	8	32	179	8	73	8	227	274	332	606	105	308	28	5	264	59	-28	+11	-5	+2	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	2171	1990	434	66	13	29	127	677	25	305	44	218	274	308	582	90	313	31	6	256	59	-23	+9	-2	+2	+12	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	131	20	4	9	38	203	7	91	13	220	274	312	586	92	315	31	6	256	59	-28	+11	-3	+2	+14	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Duke Ellis (OGILVIE)	29	60	45	60	35	219/269/313	94	294	3	32	27%	6%	65	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler Wade 2024 · MLB	29	49→58	39→45	61→60	47	234/299/321	87	306	7	42	25%	8%	78	-0.3	224/293/294	70	295	5	29	24%	8%	70	-0.9	213/289/252	39	283	1	26	23%	9%	58	-0.6
✕Darren Ford 2015 · AAA	29	47→53	37→45	58→65	41	224/270/295	71	303	5	42	27%	6%	60	-1.6	217/269/299	82	281	7	31	24%	6%	61	-1.5	210/264/286	76	268	6	31	23%	6%	53	-1.5
✕Billy Hamilton 2019 · MLB	28	51→61	39→40	67→70	48	241/300/333	92	307	5	44	22%	8%	80	-0.2	221/280/315	94	297	6	34	26%	8%	69	-0.9	158/208/235	77	253	4	47	37%	6%	22	-1.0
✕Tony Campana 2014 · MLB	28	54→64	35→30	66→70	44	249/298/308	59	331	3	50	25%	7%	73	-0.6	228/273/287	59	292	2	26	21%	5%	59	-1.7	231/266/285	54	284	1	24	18%	4%	52	-1.5
✕Nyjer Morgan 2009 · MLB	29	58→63	36→45	64→65	44	272/320/349	76	329	3	46	18%	5%	91	+0.6	274/330/356	82	325	3	37	16%	6%	97	+1.1	277/338/360	83	328	3	35	15%	6%	101	+1.2
✕Jarrod Dyson 2015 · MLB	30	53→57	38→45	71→70	50	249/308/330	80	303	4	58	18%	8%	82	+0.0	252/313/355	103	295	6	50	16%	7%	91	+0.6	254/319/358	104	292	5	53	14%	7%	94	+0.5
✕Forrest Wall 2024 · MLB	28	51→55	41→45	69→70	44	239/301/343	105	333	7	54	29%	7%	83	+0.1	244/312/344	100	338	8	38	28%	8%	88	+0.4	245/318/331	86	342	7	38	28%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Tyler Graham 2013 · AAA	29	51→54	37→40	62→65	45	239/296/315	76	301	3	42	21%	6%	75	-0.5	227/279/302	75	285	6	31	21%	5%	65	-1.2	230/270/276	46	284	3	38	19%	4%	52	-1.6
✕Todd Donovan 2007 · AAA	28	50→52	39→40	63→65	45	238/292/325	87	288	6	42	19%	6%	76	-0.4	230/294/306	76	290	4	37	20%	8%	72	-0.7	225/302/289	64	290	2	42	21%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Roemon Fields 2019 · AAA	28	49→57	36→30	58→60	42	230/277/293	63	301	3	38	24%	6%	62	-1.4	222/276/300	78	282	5	24	22%	6%	64	-1.3	212/268/269	57	262	3	24	19%	6%	51	-1.3
✕Quintin Berry 2014 · MLB	29	46→56	37→40	63→65	47	218/290/293	75	295	5	38	26%	8%	68	-1.0	220/288/286	66	297	4	33	25%	8%	65	-1.2	221/288/272	51	300	3	37	25%	8%	60	-1.2
✕Jorge Mateo 2024 · MLB	29	43→50	47→50	62→65	42	219/269/356	137	274	14	39	26%	6%	74	-0.5	219/265/353	134	280	14	41	26%	6%	72	-0.7	209/250/335	125	273	13	52	28%	5%	63	-0.4
✕Dairon Blanco 2023 · AAA	30	48→50	46→45	62→70	41	237/290/363	127	308	14	42	27%	6%	84	+0.2	249/310/375	126	320	13	71	25%	6%	95	+0.9	246/312/366	120	313	12	95	24%	6%	91	+0.3
✕Jerry Owens 2009 · MLB	28	55→65	36→40	57→65	48	257/307/315	58	306	4	39	17%	6%	78	-0.3	251/305/328	77	298	5	26	16%	7%	80	-0.1	276/326/337	61	321	2	24	14%	7%	88	+0.2
✕Willy Taveras 2010 · MLB	28	53→63	35→45	63→65	47	248/294/304	56	286	3	46	14%	6%	71	-0.8	225/263/311	86	261	7	25	16%	5%	61	-1.5	242/294/346	104	295	8	27	20%	4%	79	-0.2
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2015 · MLB	28	54→64	40→45	63→60	46	258/307/357	100	313	7	41	20%	6%	88	+0.5	254/314/358	104	315	10	22	21%	7%	92	+0.7	256/323/359	102	320	11	15	22%	8%	95	+0.5
✕Eric Young Jr. 2015 · MLB	30	52→60	39→45	65	50	246/308/341	95	296	4	43	18%	8%	85	+0.2	225/286/309	84	277	6	36	20%	7%	70	-0.9	233/288/340	107	291	8	24	22%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Mallex Smith 2021 · MLB	28	51→61	41→45	65	48	242/308/351	110	307	7	40	22%	8%	88	+0.4	218/292/319	101	302	9	31	29%	9%	75	-0.5	197/280/280	83	292	10	40	33%	10%	58	-0.3
✕Nick Heath 2021 · MLB	27	44→39	40	63→65	41	205/272/301	96	328	8	43	37%	8%	63	-1.3	204/268/317	113	331	10	27	38%	7%	65	-1.2	182/257/288	106	310	8	36	40%	8%	55	-0.9
✕Mel Stocker 2009 · AAA	28	51	36→40	66→65	45	239/288/312	74	290	2	41	18%	5%	70	-0.8	223/281/310	87	269	4	33	18%	6%	68	-1.0	208/272/292	84	248	3	44	16%	6%	58	-1.0