Brailyn Marquez
P
Tennessee Smokies
+0.1
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 185 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP13.69
SIERA12.42
K%23.4%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%12.9%
IP20
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
FB-0.9
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cubs 1 | 12 | 12 | 55 | 228 | 48 | 23 | 1 | 14.3% | 12.6% | 0.6% | 1.48 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 11 | 9 | 44 | 199 | 52 | 12 | 3 | 17.8% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 5.52 | 3.71 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 19 | A | South Bend Cubs | 2 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.57 | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 22 | 22 | 104 | 438 | 128 | 50 | 5 | 21.8% | 13.4% | 1.6% | 3.13 | 3.83 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 67.50 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 23 | 2 | 31 | 155 | 44 | 38 | 1 | 22.9% | 30.2% | 0.9% | 4.99 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 47 | 241 | 1058 | 207 | 154 | 14 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 1.3% | 3.59 | 4.02 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 39 | 200 | 879 | 172 | 128 | 12 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 1.3% | 3.59 | 4.02 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brailyn Marquez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.47 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 20 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Evan Kravetz L 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.05 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 4.0% | .313 | 6.75 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 19 | +1.70 | 2.80 | 269 | 77 |
| Locke St. John L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 26.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .296 | 4.22 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 108 | +0.19 | 3.06 | 389 | 75 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 74 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.09 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.75 | 3.09 | 145 | 74 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 74 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.4% | .367 | 4.35 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 95 | +1.06 | 3.29 | 180 | 74 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 74 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 73 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 265 | 73 |
| Edward Paredes L 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 73 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 29.3% | 11.1% | 3.8% | .245 | 4.37 | 26.8% | 15.4% | 138 | +0.25 | 3.79 | 470 | 73 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 73 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 73 |
| Tim Mayza L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.31 | 24.2% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .266 | 3.22 | 25.0% | 19.6% | 102 | -1.09 | 2.27 | 516 | 73 |
| Grant Wolfram L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 22.6% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .284 | 2.81 | 23.1% | 12.9% | 59 | -1.10 | 2.81 | 371 | 72 |
| Haylen Green L 2024 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 72 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .336 | 3.58 | 25.2% | 16.4% | 44 | -0.49 | 1.84 | 238 | 72 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 128 | 72 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 206 | 71 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .368 | 3.62 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.27 | 3.02 | 153 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.