Elvis Alvarado
P
Athletics
Age 27
RHP
6'6" / 253 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10596vR 87
ERA3.81
FIP3.77
K%30.0%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%18.8%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.9
Whiff%
p9032.2%
K%
p9032.1%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
SI (17%)
SL-1.0 (27%)
FB-1.4 (70%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 10 | 0 | 14 | 73 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 12.1% | 20.5% | -8.4% | 1.9% | 6.59 | 5.73 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 10 | 0 | 14 | 73 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.8% | 16.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 6.59 | 4.78 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 3 | 29 | 131 | 34 | 19 | 1 | 23% | 2.2 | 17.4% | 19.0% | -1.6% | 0.0% | 4.40 | 4.04 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 3 | 29 | 131 | 34 | 19 | 1 | 23% | 2.2 | 26.0% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 0.8% | 4.40 | 3.17 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 31 | 1 | 45 | 231 | 33 | 32 | 3 | 3% | 1.5 | 10.6% | 16.3% | -5.8% | 2.3% | 6.60 | 5.56 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 31 | 1 | 45 | 231 | 33 | 32 | 3 | 3% | 1.5 | 14.3% | 13.9% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 6.60 | 4.63 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 1 | 60 | 244 | 63 | 17 | 3 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 13.7% | 2.2% | 2.72 | 3.45 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 1 | 60 | 244 | 63 | 17 | 3 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.8% | 7.0% | 18.9% | 1.2% | 2.72 | 2.50 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 2 | 33 | 149 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 6% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 5.18 | 6.39 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 2 | 33 | 149 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 6% | 1.1 | 26.8% | 9.4% | 17.4% | 3.4% | 5.18 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 74 | 40 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.2% | 18.6% | 10.6% | 1.2% | 2.66 | 3.66 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 74 | 40 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.0% | 17.9% | 15.2% | 0.9% | 2.66 | 3.06 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 84 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.3% | 11.4% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 3.27 | 3.89 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 84 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.6% | 11.2% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 3.27 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Athletics | 37 | 0 | 39 | 158 | 51 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.1% | 9.2% | 22.9% | 4.6% | 4.12 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 0 | 24 | 100 | 30 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 11.2% | 18.8% | 3.2% | 3.81 | 3.77 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 30 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 11.2% | 18.8% | 3.2% | 3.77 | 3.73 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 63 | 258 | 81 | 25 | 9 | — | — | 31.4% | 9.8% | 21.6% | 3.6% | 4.00 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 51 | 216 | 81 | 25 | 9 | — | — | 37.6% | 11.7% | 25.9% | 4.3% | 4.92 | 3.74 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 61 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 11.2% | 17.7% | 3.3% | 4.25 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 56 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 3.4% | 4.36 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 57 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 11.2% | 17.7% | 3.2% | 4.21 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 3.5% | 4.48 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 213 | 0 | 228 | 960 | 274 | 107 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 11.1% | 17.5% | 3.5% | 4.13 | 4.00 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 240 | 94 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 11.1% | 17.5% | 3.5% | 4.13 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 274 | 7 | 342 | 1514 | 334 | 201 | 41 | 3% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 13.3% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.41 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 4 | 200 | 886 | 196 | 118 | 24 | 3% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 13.3% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Elvis Alvarado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.16 | 28.8% | 11.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.44 | 28.0% | 16.7% | 142 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 80 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.83 | 16.8% | 2.7% | 45 | +0.84 | 3.74 | 163 | 74 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 74 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 28.4% | 12.5% | 4.8% | .264 | 3.41 | 31.8% | 17.2% | 44 | -1.52 | 3.30 | 323 | 73 |
| Justin Grimm R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.03 | 28.9% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .313 | 4.33 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 170 | +1.30 | 2.93 | 335 | 73 |
| Yosver Zulueta R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.59 | 27.5% | 13.4% | 3.8% | .226 | 4.22 | 18.8% | 1.7% | 68 | -0.37 | 3.20 | 314 | 73 |
| Parker Markel R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 29.7% | 16.5% | 3.9% | .250 | 4.08 | 28.9% | 11.6% | 97 | -0.73 | 3.16 | 266 | 72 |
| Brian Ellington R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.81 | 25.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .283 | 5.60 | 22.4% | 5.3% | 29 | +0.79 | 2.75 | 233 | 72 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 3.49 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 70 | +0.20 | 2.59 | 156 | 72 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.01 | 28.6% | 12.1% | 5.1% | .261 | 4.52 | 30.7% | 16.5% | 88 | -0.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 71 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.33 | 29.2% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .309 | 6.08 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 22 | +2.75 | 2.33 | 480 | 71 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.19 | 33.0% | 9.5% | 3.0% | .229 | 4.21 | 29.4% | 19.2% | 157 | +1.02 | 1.58 | 295 | 71 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 70 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.28 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 1.3% | .266 | 1.48 | 29.8% | 22.7% | 15 | -1.80 | 1.48 | 230 | 70 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.01 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 363 | 70 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 70 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 70 |
| Blake Wood R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 70 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 69 |
| Matt Jachec R 2024 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 28.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 120 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 28.2% | 11.5% | 1.28 | 4.33 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Michael Feliz ('21) | 5 | 47 | 30.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 | 5.05 |