Elvis Alvarado

P Athletics

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 253 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	41	51	2.66	3.06	33.0%	17.9%	—	K 28.5% · BB 16.0% · FIP 3.32
2025	26	MIX2 levels	62	72	3.27	3.81	27.6%	11.2%	0.6	K 26.1% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.88
2026	27	MIX2 levels	68	67	3.61	4.02	29.1%	9.7%	0.4	K 28.4% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.43
2027PROJ	28	MLBOAK	42	44	4.20	4.32	29.2%	10.3%	0.1
2028PROJ90% MLB	29	MLBOAK	35	37	4.32	4.43	28.0%	10.4%	0.0
2029PROJ92% MLB	30	MLBOAK	29	30	4.50	4.62	27.0%	10.7%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%84

xwOBA vs41

Form2.31 ERA (proj 4.20) · K 26.8% (proj 29.2%) · BB 11.3% (proj 10.3%) ▼ last 90d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsKiko Calero (age 28) · Jon Edwards (age 27) · Will Vest (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.20

FIP4.32

K%29.2%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%18.8%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.7

Whiff%

p8931.4%

p8428.4%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	10	0	14	73	13	12	1	0%	1.4	12.1%	20.5%	-8.4%	1.9%	6.59	5.73	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	10	0	14	73	13	12	1	0%	1.4	17.8%	16.4%	1.4%	1.4%	6.59	4.78	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	3	29	131	34	19	1	23%	2.2	17.4%	19.0%	-1.6%	0.0%	4.40	4.04	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	3	29	131	34	19	1	23%	2.2	26.0%	14.5%	11.5%	0.8%	4.40	3.17	—
2021	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	31	1	45	231	33	32	3	3%	1.5	10.6%	16.3%	-5.8%	2.0%	6.60	5.35	—
2021	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	31	1	45	231	33	32	3	3%	1.5	14.3%	13.9%	0.4%	1.3%	6.60	4.63	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	1	60	244	63	17	3	2%	1.2	20.7%	7.0%	13.7%	1.9%	2.72	3.31	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	1	60	244	63	17	3	2%	1.2	25.8%	7.0%	18.9%	1.2%	2.72	2.50	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	2	33	149	40	14	5	6%	1.1	21.2%	10.5%	10.6%	5.9%	5.18	5.89	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	2	33	149	40	14	5	6%	1.1	26.8%	9.4%	17.4%	3.4%	5.18	3.92	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	224	74	40	2	0%	1.2	28.5%	16.0%	12.6%	1.1%	2.66	3.32	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	224	74	40	2	0%	1.2	28.5%	16.0%	12.6%	1.1%	2.66	3.32	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	51	224	74	40	2	0%	1.2	33.0%	17.9%	15.2%	0.9%	2.66	3.06	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	72	304	84	34	9	0%	1.2	26.1%	10.8%	15.3%	2.9%	3.27	3.88	+0.6
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	72	304	84	34	9	0%	1.2	26.1%	10.8%	15.3%	2.9%	3.27	3.88	+0.6
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	72	304	84	34	9	0%	1.2	27.6%	11.2%	16.4%	3.0%	3.27	3.81	+0.6
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	67	278	81	27	11	0%	1.0	28.4%	10.0%	18.3%	4.5%	3.61	4.43	+0.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	67	278	81	27	11	0%	1.0	28.4%	10.0%	18.3%	4.5%	3.61	4.43	+0.1
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	67	278	81	27	11	0%	1.0	29.1%	9.7%	19.4%	4.0%	3.61	4.02	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			93	0	98	412	115	44	16	0%	1.1	27.9%	10.7%	17.2%	3.9%	3.59	4.23	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	OAK	42	0	44	186	54	19	7	0%	1.0	29.2%	10.3%	18.8%	3.6%	4.20	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	OAK	39	0	41	172	48	18	6	0%	1.0	28.0%	10.4%	17.6%	3.7%	4.37	4.48	+0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	OAK	31	0	33	138	37	15	5	0%	1.1	27.0%	10.7%	16.3%	3.9%	4.55	4.67	-0.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	OAK	24	0	26	108	28	12	4	0%	1.1	26.0%	10.9%	15.1%	4.0%	4.75	4.89	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	OAK	35	0	37	156	44	16	6	0%	1.1	28.0%	10.4%	17.6%	3.6%	4.32	4.43	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	OAK	29	0	30	127	34	14	5	0%	1.0	27.0%	10.7%	16.3%	3.8%	4.50	4.62	-0.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	OAK	23	0	24	101	26	11	4	0%	1.0	26.0%	10.9%	15.1%	3.9%	4.69	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		179	0	188	794	219	85	30	0%	1.1	27.5%	10.7%	16.9%	3.8%	4.02	4.22	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	233	90	32	0%	1.1	27.5%	10.7%	16.9%	3.8%	4.02	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		305	7	370	1634	360	207	43	2%	1.2	22.0%	12.7%	9.4%	2.7%	3.94	4.30	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	4	200	884	195	112	23	2%	1.2	22.0%	12.7%	9.4%	2.7%	3.94	4.30	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 12 IPFIP 2.50 → 2.89 (+0.39)K% 32.7% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.65%	—	×0.860	28.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×0.900	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 29 IPFIP 3.45 → 3.55 (+0.10)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.10%	—	×0.860	24.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.74%	—	×0.900	9.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷1.183	×1.100	2.31%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 48 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.32 (+0.26)K% 33.2% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.18%	—	×0.860	28.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.76%	—	×0.900	15.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷0.925	×1.100	1.11%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 27 IPFIP 4.23 → 5.89 (+1.66)K% 27.5% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.50%	—	×0.770	21.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.17%	—	×1.150	10.54%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷0.882	×1.250	5.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 4.23 → 5.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 5 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.38 (+0.77)K% 23.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.740	17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.180	13.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.216	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 29 IPFIP 2.01 → 2.88 (+0.88)K% 27.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.770	21.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.03%	—	×1.150	6.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷0.847	×1.250	1.27%

Result: FIP 2.01 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 23 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.84 (+0.83)K% 24.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.73%	—	×0.810	20.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.100	7.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷0.926	×1.200	2.79%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 8 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.38 (+0.76)K% 22.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.740	16.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.180	13.49%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.279	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elvis Alvarado (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	29.2%	10.3%	3.6%	—	4.65	27.1%	16.5%	99	+0.33	—	—	—
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	76
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	76
Will Vest R 2023 · 3.66 FIP	28	SU	3.66	28.4%	7.8%	3.6%	.281	2.69	23.9%	17.2%	166	-0.97	2.56	448	72
Steve Delabar R 2012 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	33.6%	9.1%	4.4%	.234	3.44	26.9%	15.9%	139	-0.38	2.43	229	72
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	72
Jason Motte R 2010 · 3.24 FIP	28	SU	3.24	26.0%	7.2%	2.6%	.269	2.69	27.3%	21.8%	140	-0.55	2.22	387	71
Al Alburquerque R 2014 · 3.62 FIP	28	SU	3.62	26.7%	8.5%	3.1%	.267	3.27	21.8%	11.6%	147	-0.35	1.73	391	71
JT Chargois R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	27.2%	8.9%	3.1%	.311	3.57	23.1%	15.8%	76	-0.06	2.58	362	71
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	70
Michael Flynn R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	27	SU	3.99	27.6%	8.3%	3.9%	.277	4.68	16.2%	3.7%	50	+0.69	3.89	168	70
Pedro Strop R 2013 · 3.23 FIP	28	SU	3.23	26.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.252	2.51	30.3%	21.8%	176	-0.72	2.25	494	70
Trevor May R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	26.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.291	3.47	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.27	3.05	477	70
Brooks Kriske R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	27	SU	4.95	28.6%	12.1%	5.0%	.261	4.27	30.0%	17.8%	88	-0.68	3.09	246	70
Chad Fox R 2001 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	27.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.221	3.70	23.2%	9.6%	43	+0.53	2.82	194	70
Neil Ramírez R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	28	SU	4.66	27.1%	12.5%	4.1%	.389	4.86	29.1%	19.7%	116	+0.20	2.43	264	69
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	69
Jason Stoffel R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	27.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	103	69
Michael Tonkin R 2017 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	29.2%	9.6%	2.7%	.309	6.30	21.8%	8.3%	22	+2.98	2.31	499	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2012 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	25.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.299	3.34	26.5%	16.9%	75	-0.56	3.34	335	68
Jake Cousins R 2022 · 3.15 FIP	28	SU	3.15	30.9%	11.9%	2.1%	.265	3.82	31.3%	19.4%	65	+0.67	1.11	160	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	41	27.9%	10.9%	1.48	4.09
Chasen Shreve ('24)	1.8	45	25.2%	10.8%	1.54	3.96
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*