Elvis Alvarado
P
Athletics
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
RHP
6'6" / 253 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA3.90
FIP4.37
xFIP5.59
SIERA5.03
K%26.0%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%14.1%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†6565
FB Velo
p9098.7
Whiff%
p9033.7%
K%
p7827.3%
xwOBA vs
p580.304
SI (21%)
SL-1.0 (8%)
FB-1.4 (81%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 10 | 0 | 14 | 73 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 12.1% | 20.5% | 1.9% | 6.59 | 5.73 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 20 | A | West Virginia Power | 13 | 3 | 29 | 131 | 34 | 19 | 1 | 17.4% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 4.40 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 31 | 1 | 45 | 231 | 33 | 32 | 3 | 10.6% | 16.3% | 2.0% | 6.60 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 49 | 1 | 60 | 244 | 63 | 17 | 3 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 2.72 | 3.32 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 31 | 2 | 33 | 149 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 21.2% | 10.5% | 6.1% | 5.18 | 5.98 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 41 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 74 | 40 | 2 | 29.2% | 18.6% | 1.1% | 2.66 | 3.61 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Athletics | 62 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 84 | 34 | 9 | 26.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 3.27 | 3.99 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Athletics | 9 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.87 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 16 | — | 16 | 69 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 29.6% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 3.89 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 24 | 102 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 25.9% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 4.52 | 2.82 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 69 | 29 | 7 | 27.5% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 65 | 28 | 7 | 26.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 62 | 28 | 7 | 26.0% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 58 | 27 | 7 | 25.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 54 | 26 | 7 | 24.7% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 51 | 25 | 7 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 47 | 24 | 7 | 23.4% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 43 | 23 | 6 | 22.6% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 246 | 7 | 310 | 1389 | 289 | 191 | 32 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 4.33 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 5 | 200 | 896 | 186 | 123 | 21 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Elvis Alvarado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.13 | 29.6% | 11.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.29 | 26.8% | 15.1% | 174 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 78 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 78 |
| Brian Ellington R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.68 | 25.5% | 14.9% | 3.4% | .283 | 5.60 | 22.4% | 5.3% | 29 | +0.92 | 2.75 | 233 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.39 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .264 | 2.39 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.00 | 2.39 | 132 | 75 |
| David Morgan R 2024 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.37 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 148 | 75 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 75 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.38 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.49 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.11 | 3.38 | 173 | 74 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.32 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .266 | 1.48 | 29.8% | 22.7% | 15 | -1.84 | 1.48 | 230 | 74 |
| Yosver Zulueta R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.37 | 27.5% | 13.4% | 3.4% | .226 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 246 | 74 |
| Blake Wood R 2028 · 2.91 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.91 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.0% | .325 | 3.57 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.66 | 2.91 | 210 | 74 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 74 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.42 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .301 | 3.61 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 70 | +0.19 | 2.59 | 156 | 74 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.09 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .277 | 5.99 | 11.9% | -5.1% | 16 | +1.90 | 3.86 | 134 | 73 |
| Ryne Stanek R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.66 | 30.8% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .250 | 3.84 | 27.9% | 16.5% | 145 | +0.18 | 2.94 | 708 | 73 |
| Kaleb Ort R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.89 | 30.1% | 14.0% | 1.0% | .369 | 3.11 | 25.5% | 15.8% | 114 | +0.22 | 1.75 | 365 | 73 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.02 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.3% | .314 | 2.56 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.46 | 1.54 | 521 | 73 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 73 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.81 | 28.6% | 12.1% | 4.7% | .261 | 4.45 | 30.7% | 16.5% | 88 | -0.36 | 3.04 | 230 | 73 |
| JT Chargois R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.35 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 1.9% | .282 | 3.49 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 108 | +0.14 | 2.57 | 362 | 72 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.587 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $9M | +$3M | ||