Elvis Alvarado — OGILVIE

Elvis Alvarado P Athletics

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 253 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.83

FIP3.76

K%28.4%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%17.3%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.8

Whiff%

p8731.1%

p8528.6%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

SI (13%)

CH (2%)

SL-1.0 (20%)

FB-1.4 (73%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	10	0	14	73	13	12	1	0%	1.4	12.1%	20.5%	-8.4%	1.9%	6.59	5.73	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	10	0	14	73	13	12	1	0%	1.4	17.8%	16.4%	1.4%	1.4%	6.59	4.78	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	3	29	131	34	19	1	23%	2.2	17.4%	19.0%	-1.6%	0.0%	4.40	4.04	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	3	29	131	34	19	1	23%	2.2	26.0%	14.5%	11.5%	0.8%	4.40	3.17	—
2021	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	31	1	45	231	33	32	3	3%	1.5	10.6%	16.3%	-5.8%	2.0%	6.60	5.35	—
2021	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	31	1	45	231	33	32	3	3%	1.5	14.3%	13.9%	0.4%	1.3%	6.60	4.63	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	1	60	244	63	17	3	2%	1.2	20.7%	7.0%	13.7%	1.9%	2.72	3.31	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	1	60	244	63	17	3	2%	1.2	25.8%	7.0%	18.9%	1.2%	2.72	2.50	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	2	33	149	40	14	5	6%	1.1	21.2%	10.5%	10.6%	5.9%	5.18	5.89	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	2	33	149	40	14	5	6%	1.1	21.2%	10.5%	10.6%	5.9%	5.18	5.89	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	2	33	149	40	14	5	6%	1.1	26.8%	9.4%	17.4%	3.4%	5.18	3.92	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	224	74	40	2	0%	1.2	27.5%	16.0%	11.6%	1.1%	2.66	3.41	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	224	74	40	2	0%	1.2	27.5%	16.0%	11.6%	1.1%	2.66	3.41	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	51	224	74	40	2	0%	1.2	33.0%	17.9%	15.2%	0.9%	2.66	3.06	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	72	304	84	34	9	0%	1.2	25.7%	10.8%	15.0%	2.9%	3.27	3.90	+0.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	72	304	84	34	9	0%	1.2	25.7%	10.8%	15.0%	2.9%	3.27	3.90	+0.5
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	72	304	84	34	9	0%	1.2	27.6%	11.2%	16.4%	3.0%	3.27	3.81	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			86	0	91	386	108	43	14	0%	1.1	28.0%	11.1%	16.8%	3.6%	3.65	4.14	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	61	0	61	252	74	26	9	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.8%	17.7%	4.0%	3.69	4.28	+0.2
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	61	0	61	252	74	26	9	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.8%	17.7%	4.0%	3.69	4.28	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	OAK	12	0	12	49	16	4	1	0%	1.0	32.7%	8.2%	24.5%	2.0%	2.25	2.50	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	OAK	49	0	49	203	58	22	8	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.8%	17.7%	3.9%	4.04	4.22	+0.2
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	OAK	49	0	49	203	58	22	8	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.8%	17.7%	3.9%	4.04	4.22	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB MLE	OAK	4	0	4	18	5	2	1	0%	1.1	28.4%	11.1%	17.3%	3.0%	3.83	3.76	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	OAK	4	0	4	17	5	2	0	0%	1.0	28.4%	11.1%	17.3%	2.9%	3.79	3.72	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	65	270	79	28	10	—	—	29.3%	10.4%	18.9%	3.5%	3.70	4.24	+0.3
FULL	27	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	53	225	79	28	10	—	—	35.2%	12.4%	22.7%	4.2%	4.53	4.03	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	OAK	47	0	50	209	58	23	7	0%	1.1	27.7%	11.0%	16.7%	3.3%	4.33	4.34	+0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	OAK	45	0	47	200	54	22	7	0%	1.1	26.8%	11.1%	15.7%	3.4%	4.43	4.50	+0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	OAK	42	0	45	188	49	21	7	0%	1.1	26.0%	11.3%	14.6%	3.6%	4.59	4.70	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	OAK	45	0	47	198	55	22	6	0%	1.0	27.7%	11.0%	16.7%	3.2%	4.28	4.29	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	OAK	43	0	45	190	51	21	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	11.1%	15.7%	3.3%	4.38	4.45	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	OAK	40	0	42	177	46	20	6	0%	1.1	26.0%	11.3%	14.6%	3.5%	4.54	4.65	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		218	0	230	972	266	108	34	0%	1.1	27.3%	11.2%	16.2%	3.4%	4.09	4.10	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	845	231	94	30	0%	1.1	27.3%	11.2%	16.2%	3.4%	4.09	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		298	7	363	1608	350	206	41	2%	1.2	21.8%	12.8%	8.9%	2.6%	3.96	4.29	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	4	200	885	193	114	23	2%	1.2	21.8%	12.8%	8.9%	2.6%	3.96	4.29	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elvis Alvarado (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	28.2%	11.2%	2.9%	—	4.51	26.9%	15.7%	142	+0.40	—	—	—
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	79
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	77
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	76
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	75
Justin Grimm R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	27	SU	3.11	28.9%	9.3%	2.3%	.313	4.33	25.2%	13.4%	170	+1.22	3.00	335	75
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	75
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	75
Alex Hoppe R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	23.7%	9.2%	3.5%	.371	3.94	20.7%	8.7%	184	-0.27	3.13	233	74
Maikel Cleto R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	27	SU	3.44	27.9%	9.9%	2.6%	.301	3.61	23.6%	14.3%	70	+0.17	2.59	156	74
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	74
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	74
Jake Barrett R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	26.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.266	1.48	29.8%	22.7%	15	-1.83	1.48	230	73
Brooks Kriske R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	27	SU	4.95	28.6%	12.1%	5.0%	.261	4.35	29.0%	16.8%	88	-0.60	3.15	246	73
Parker Markel R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	28	SU	4.87	29.7%	16.5%	4.0%	.250	4.33	28.9%	11.6%	97	-0.54	3.18	266	73
Jordan Jankowski R 2016 · 2.95 FIP	27	SU	2.95	30.3%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	4.23	23.4%	8.8%	62	+1.28	2.57	196	73
Blake Wood R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	29	SU	2.92	24.5%	10.5%	1.0%	.325	3.60	24.9%	14.9%	151	+0.68	2.92	210	72
Tayron Guerrero R 2018 · 4.05 FIP	27	SU	4.05	25.4%	10.8%	3.1%	.344	4.95	20.6%	5.0%	65	+0.90	2.24	374	72
Brad Boxberger R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	27.3%	10.0%	3.4%	.280	4.09	28.5%	17.2%	107	+0.16	3.01	363	72
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	72
Daniel Hudson R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	24.5%	7.9%	2.4%	.302	3.78	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.43	1.68	468	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	27.2%	11.2%	1.27	4.37
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63