James Nelson

3B Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 29 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	25	INTLCharros de Ja…	32	.107/.219/.214	0	0	26	—
2026	28	AAAHOU	190	.270/.312/.433	7	10	63	—	.228/.265/.344
2026	28	AAHOU	17	.267/.353/.333	0	1	53	—	.250/.294/.312
2027PROJ10% MLB	29	MLBHOU	22	.230/.285/.360	1	1	79	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	30	MLBHOU	71	.227/.283/.355	2	2	77	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV72

Speed64

Chase%34

Whiff%29

K%27

Z-Con%18

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRyan Cordell (age 29) · Adam Engel (age 29) · Mario Lisson (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .285 / .360

PA22

HR1

K%27

BB%5

BABIP303

ISO190

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	18	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	180	161	45	10	0	1	14	30	2	7	3	280	345	360	705	81	331	17	8	316	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	395	122	31	3	7	26	106	5	6	2	309	359	456	815	147	399	25	6	357	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	232	49	10	0	2	13	66	4	1	0	211	265	280	545	69	281	26	5	247	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	429	98	13	2	4	30	89	3	5	3	228	284	296	580	68	274	19	6	261	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	276	68	13	0	6	25	90	6	16	7	246	322	359	681	112	339	29	8	308	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	149	33	6	0	2	31	56	3	16	7	221	366	302	668	81	337	30	17	317	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	32	28	3	1	1	0	3	6	1	0	2	107	219	214	433	107	136	19	9	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	190	178	48	8	0	7	8	52	3	10	2	270	312	433	745	163	342	27	4	329	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	17	15	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	267	353	333	686	67	364	24	12	317	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	—	180	166	35	7	0	1	9	43	2	7	3	211	260	271	531	60	266	24	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	404	107	24	2	5	17	140	5	6	2	265	303	371	674	106	377	32	4	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	235	43	10	0	2	10	93	4	1	0	183	229	251	480	68	273	37	4	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	436	80	12	1	4	23	125	3	5	3	183	229	243	473	60	237	27	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	283	54	10	0	4	18	122	6	16	7	191	254	269	523	78	299	39	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	161	27	5	0	2	19	72	3	16	7	168	268	236	504	68	281	39	10	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	190	180	41	6	0	5	6	62	3	10	2	228	265	344	609	117	315	33	3	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	17	16	4	1	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	250	294	312	607	62	314	29	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	—	180	166	35	7	0	1	9	43	2	7	3	211	260	271	531	60	272	24	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	—	180	161	45	10	0	1	14	30	2	7	3	280	345	360	705	81	331	17	8	316	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	404	107	24	2	5	17	140	5	6	2	265	303	371	674	106	385	32	4	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	395	122	31	3	7	26	106	5	6	2	309	359	456	815	147	399	25	6	357	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	235	43	10	0	2	10	93	4	1	0	183	229	251	480	68	287	37	4	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	232	49	10	0	2	13	66	4	1	0	211	265	280	545	69	281	26	5	247	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	436	80	12	1	4	23	125	3	5	3	183	229	243	473	60	242	27	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	429	98	13	2	4	30	89	3	5	3	228	284	296	580	68	274	19	6	261	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	283	54	10	0	4	18	122	6	16	7	191	254	269	523	78	312	39	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	276	68	13	0	6	25	90	6	16	7	246	322	359	681	112	339	29	8	308	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	161	27	5	0	2	19	72	3	16	7	168	268	236	504	68	284	39	10	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	149	33	6	0	2	31	56	3	16	7	221	366	302	668	81	337	30	17	317	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	INTL MLE	Charros de Jalisco	—	32	28	3	1	1	0	3	6	1	0	2	107	219	214	433	107	136	19	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	INTL RAW	Charros de Jalisco	—	32	28	3	1	1	0	3	6	1	0	2	107	219	214	433	107	136	19	9	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	207	196	45	7	0	5	7	67	3	11	2	230	267	342	609	112	320	32	3	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	207	193	52	9	0	7	10	56	3	11	2	269	316	425	740	155	344	27	5	328	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	—	180	167	35	7	0	1	9	43	2	7	3	210	260	269	529	60	266	24	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	407	107	24	2	5	17	140	5	6	2	263	303	369	671	106	377	32	4	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	237	43	10	0	2	10	93	4	1	0	181	229	249	478	68	273	37	4	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	441	80	12	1	4	23	125	3	5	3	181	229	240	470	59	237	27	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	283	54	10	0	4	18	122	6	16	7	191	254	269	523	78	299	39	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	160	27	5	0	2	19	72	3	16	7	169	268	237	505	69	281	39	10	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	207	195	45	7	0	5	7	67	3	11	2	231	267	344	611	113	315	32	3	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	207	195	45	7	0	5	7	67	3	11	2	231	267	344	611	113	315	32	3	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	HOU	10%	257	237	53	10	1	6	15	73	3	7	2	227	283	357	640	130	298	28	6	286	79	-6	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	HOU	10%	22	21	5	1	0	1	1	6	0	1	0	230	285	360	645	131	303	27	5	288	79	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	HOU	27%	261	240	54	10	1	6	16	75	3	6	1	225	281	352	633	127	296	29	6	283	77	-7	+1	-2	+1	+6	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	HOU	27%	71	66	15	3	0	2	4	20	1	2	0	227	283	355	638	128	300	28	6	285	77	-2	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	71	66	15	3	0	2	4	20	1	2	0	227	282	364	645	136	295	28	6	285	53	-2	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	604	137	27	0	18	37	183	9	18	0	227	282	361	642	134	295	28	6	285	53	-17	+4	-5	+2	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2547	2349	493	94	6	34	135	805	33	74	28	210	263	298	561	89	299	32	5	246	53	-12	+2	-2	+2	+10	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	127	24	2	9	34	205	8	19	7	212	263	304	567	92	301	32	5	246	53	-17	+2	-3	+2	+14	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
James Nelson (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	225/280/354	129	298	5	6	29%	6%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43→42	46→50	49→50	42	216/272/344	128	288	14	11	30%	6%	74	-0.6	203/269/353	150	324	19	14	41%	7%	75	-0.5	141/210/279	138	225	21	18	47%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Adam Engel 2021 · MLB	29	48	47→50	52→60	40	237/290/375	137	311	13	15	28%	5%	87	+0.4	226/288/366	140	301	15	23	29%	6%	84	+0.2	204/273/332	127	285	13	30	31%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Mario Lisson 2013 · AA	29	44→49	48→50	54→55	44	224/287/369	145	283	15	19	26%	7%	85	+0.2	224/286/358	134	281	15	11	25%	6%	82	+0.0	222/292/345	123	288	15	8	27%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Kristopher Negrón 2015 · MLB	29	45→49	43→45	55	39	220/272/336	116	297	10	18	29%	5%	71	-0.8	212/265/320	108	278	10	16	26%	5%	65	-1.2	217/277/337	120	309	13	14	32%	6%	71	-0.6
✕Niko Vasquez 2019 · AAA	30	46→42	48→50	47→45	42	234/288/376	142	297	16	10	27%	6%	86	+0.3	215/277/331	116	301	13	9	31%	6%	72	-0.7	184/248/269	86	259	12	4	32%	6%	46	-1.0
✕Christian Lopes 2022 · AAA	29	43→52	47→45	49→50	46	216/296/352	137	291	14	11	30%	8%	85	+0.2	216/287/329	113	309	10	11	31%	8%	76	-0.4	196/268/275	79	290	3	9	31%	7%	54	-0.7
✕Orlando Calixte 2021 · AAA	29	47→50	43→45	51→55	41	233/277/342	109	308	12	15	28%	6%	74	-0.5	217/269/313	96	289	8	21	26%	7%	65	-1.2	199/248/263	64	266	4	30	25%	6%	43	-1.0
✕Kyle Datres 2024 · AAA	28	43	47→50	57→55	45	216/296/351	134	292	16	24	30%	8%	84	+0.2	204/280/322	118	289	13	17	32%	8%	72	-0.7	173/254/274	102	244	13	16	33%	9%	50	-0.8
✕Jim Haley 2024 · AAA	29	39→43	46→50	57→55	38	200/256/327	127	276	14	20	32%	6%	63	-1.3	214/270/329	115	293	11	20	30%	6%	69	-0.9	203/257/305	102	281	10	25	30%	5%	55	-1.2
✕JaCoby Jones 2020 · MLB	28	45→50	49→50	52→50	41	226/289/387	161	305	16	14	30%	6%	90	+0.6	215/276/358	143	322	15	9	36%	6%	78	-0.3	188/243/300	112	308	13	5	41%	6%	50	-0.8
✕Narciso Crook 2023 · AAA	28	44→43	50	48→50	39	216/285/370	154	316	17	14	36%	7%	85	+0.2	208/286/343	135	332	14	15	39%	8%	79	-0.2	169/264/285	115	292	12	17	42%	8%	56	-1.0
✕Jonathan Davis 2021 · MLB	29	47→52	45	54→55	45	228/309/358	130	294	12	19	26%	7%	91	+0.7	213/305/322	109	289	10	23	27%	9%	82	-0.0	208/298/312	104	282	9	26	27%	9%	75	-0.2
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	41→36	48→50	51→50	37	212/251/355	143	272	16	13	29%	4%	68	-1.0	228/285/350	122	286	12	10	24%	6%	80	-0.2	232/297/331	98	288	9	6	21%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Kevin Padlo 2024 · MLB	28	40→42	47→55	49→50	46	204/276/339	135	275	15	12	31%	9%	74	-0.6	196/275/323	127	279	14	14	32%	9%	70	-0.8	141/233/249	109	200	13	15	35%	10%	38	-1.6
✕Chris Owings 2021 · MLB	29	42→52	48→50	48→55	41	216/271/352	136	291	16	15	31%	6%	75	-0.5	204/270/342	138	288	15	12	32%	8%	72	-0.7	179/254/288	109	254	13	11	33%	8%	52	-1.2
✕Nick Gorneault 2008 · AAA	29	45→48	49→55	48→50	44	227/283/377	150	290	17	12	28%	7%	85	+0.2	205/260/338	133	270	15	11	29%	7%	68	-1.0	190/244/318	127	249	15	9	29%	6%	54	-1.4
✕Brett Carroll 2012 · MLB	29	42→46	48→55	48→50	43	214/278/354	140	262	16	11	25%	6%	78	-0.3	205/269/338	133	269	16	10	29%	7%	72	-0.7	190/259/323	133	248	16	10	30%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Tim Lopes 2023 · MLB	29	42→52	45	51→55	42	209/266/337	127	274	13	15	28%	6%	70	-0.9	233/300/345	112	316	11	28	27%	8%	83	+0.1	241/313/336	95	329	9	39	27%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Jake Hager 2022 · MLB	29	37→47	48→50	52→50	41	197/253/336	140	261	16	10	31%	7%	65	-1.2	206/263/316	110	279	9	9	28%	7%	63	-1.3	198/253/291	94	274	6	7	28%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Taylor Featherston 2018 · MLB	28	40→46	45→50	52→50	39	203/258/326	123	277	13	12	31%	6%	64	-1.3	181/237/299	118	297	14	10	42%	5%	51	-2.3	154/210/264	110	266	13	8	45%	4%	30	-2.5