Jesus Tinoco
P
Miami Marlins
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 258 lbs
MLB
peak 1.0 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION171 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.06
FIP4.05
xFIP5.10
SIERA5.23
K%22.6%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%14.0%
IP171
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p1016.5%
K%
p1012.5%
xwOBA vs
p680.294
FB+2.2 (42%)
CH (15%)
SI (32%)
SL-1.2 (43%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | Asheville Tourists | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 105 | 30 | 3 | 15.2% | 6.9% | 0.6% | 2.97 | 3.01 | +3.4 |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 20 | 20 | 100 | 470 | 61 | 28 | 13 | 9.7% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 6.86 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 24 | 24 | 141 | 614 | 107 | 50 | 19 | 13.4% | 9.4% | 1.8% | 4.67 | 4.12 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 26 | 26 | 141 | 598 | 132 | 38 | 23 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.30 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 53 | 0 | 70 | 307 | 51 | 39 | 16 | 15.7% | 13.0% | 4.1% | 4.37 | 5.68 | -0.8 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 6 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 18.8% | 21.9% | 0.0% | 1.04 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 37 | 2 | 55 | 260 | 58 | 28 | 9 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 2.0% | 6.67 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 52 | 2 | 65 | 263 | 69 | 27 | 5 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 2.92 | 3.58 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 53 | 0 | 69 | 278 | 79 | 22 | 6 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.02 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 20 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 12.5% | 8.8% | 1.3% | 5.12 | 3.88 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 31 | 31 | 171 | 722 | 163 | 62 | 18 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 4.06 | 4.05 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 29 | 29 | 158 | 668 | 145 | 60 | 19 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.31 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 128 | 58 | 19 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.59 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 132 | 557 | 112 | 55 | 19 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.89 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 118 | 500 | 95 | 53 | 18 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.23 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 80 | 49 | 18 | 18.0% | 11.1% | 4.1% | 5.36 | 5.59 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 313 | 96 | 789 | 3414 | 567 | 301 | 78 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 4.55 | 4.06 | +12.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 79 | 24 | 200 | 865 | 144 | 76 | 20 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 4.55 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus Tinoco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 2.5% | — | 4.58 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 435 | +0.53 | — | — | — |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 51 |
| Justin Verlander R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.51 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .265 | 3.18 | 29.6% | 23.4% | 648 | -0.33 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 51 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 15.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.08 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 122 | +0.53 | 3.55 | 515 | 50 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 47 |
| Nestor Molina R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.12 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 401 | 47 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 46 |
| Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 46 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.58 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | .259 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 218 | +0.83 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 46 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 44 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 43 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 43 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.35 | 21.0% | 7.9% | 3.7% | .314 | 4.71 | 19.1% | 10.6% | 132 | +0.36 | 2.85 | 1,148 | 43 |
| Jake Peavy R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 42 |
| David Martinez R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.96 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 297 | 41 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 41 |
| Nate Long R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 41 |
| Kyle Davies R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 41 |
| Lance Lynn R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.50 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .330 | 3.14 | 27.5% | 20.7% | 449 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 1,390 | 40 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.53 | 17.8% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.34 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 40 | +0.81 | 3.53 | 355 | 40 |
| Cory Riordan R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 40 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.