Jesus Tinoco
P
Miami Marlins
+0.3
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 258 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.02
FIP4.09
xFIP5.10
SIERA5.23
K%22.0%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%13.4%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p1016.5%
K%
p1012.5%
xwOBA vs
p680.294
FB+2.2 (42%)
CH (15%)
SI (32%)
SL-1.2 (43%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | Asheville Tourists | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 105 | 30 | 3 | 15.2% | 6.9% | 0.6% | 2.97 | 3.04 | +3.1 |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 20 | 20 | 100 | 470 | 61 | 28 | 13 | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 6.86 | 4.94 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 24 | 24 | 141 | 614 | 107 | 50 | 19 | 13.4% | 9.4% | 2.4% | 4.67 | 4.47 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 26 | 26 | 141 | 598 | 132 | 38 | 23 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 4.79 | 4.70 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 53 | 0 | 70 | 307 | 51 | 39 | 16 | 15.7% | 13.0% | 4.6% | 4.37 | 5.94 | -0.7 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 6 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.04 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 37 | 2 | 55 | 260 | 58 | 28 | 9 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 6.67 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 52 | 2 | 65 | 263 | 69 | 27 | 5 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 2.92 | 3.58 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 53 | 0 | 69 | 278 | 79 | 22 | 6 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.03 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 20 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 12.5% | 8.8% | 1.3% | 5.12 | 3.87 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | COL | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | COL | 27 | — | 27 | 115 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 22.6% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 313 | 96 | 789 | 3414 | 567 | 301 | 90 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.26 | +9.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 79 | 24 | 200 | 865 | 144 | 76 | 23 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.26 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus Tinoco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 2.5% | — | 4.10 | 22.6% | 13.9% | 27 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 80 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 79 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 76 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 76 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 74 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 74 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 73 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 73 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.30 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.3% | .297 | 2.39 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.91 | 2.00 | 494 | 73 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.16 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .301 | 7.43 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.27 | 2.91 | 334 | 72 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.89 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 332 | 72 |
| Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.03 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 5.07 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.04 | 2.83 | 239 | 72 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.65 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.65 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.00 | 2.88 | 249 | 72 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.25 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .312 | 2.66 | 29.2% | 18.8% | 81 | -0.59 | 2.39 | 556 | 71 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 71 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 71 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .246 | 4.56 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.71 | 1.82 | 119 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.