Johnny Cueto
PosP
B/TR/R
Born1986-02-15
Age (2026)40
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 32 | 32 | 212 | 866 | 176 | 45 | 21 | 100% | 6.6 | 20.3% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 2.6% | 3.44 | 3.47 | +4.8 |
| 2015 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 32 | 32 | 212 | 866 | 176 | 45 | 21 | 100% | 6.6 | 20.3% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 3.36 | +5.0 |
| 2016 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 32 | 32 | 220 | 881 | 198 | 44 | 15 | 100% | 6.9 | 22.5% | 5.0% | 17.5% | 1.9% | 2.79 | 2.85 | +6.5 |
| 2016 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 32 | 32 | 220 | 881 | 198 | 44 | 15 | 100% | 6.9 | 22.5% | 5.0% | 17.5% | 1.7% | 2.79 | 2.79 | +6.7 |
| 2017 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 157 | 692 | 145 | 52 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.0% | 7.9% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.35 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 157 | 692 | 145 | 52 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.0% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.15 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 61 | 244 | 48 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.8% | 6.1% | 11.7% | 4.1% | 2.82 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2018 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 61 | 244 | 48 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.7% | 5.7% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 2.82 | 3.92 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 10 | 37 | 151 | 34 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 3.7 | 19.4% | 13.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.10 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 10 | 37 | 151 | 34 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 3.7 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 15.9% | 4.0% | 4.10 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 34 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 12 | 12 | 63 | 277 | 56 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 5.40 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 34 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 12 | 12 | 63 | 277 | 56 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 5.40 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 116 | 500 | 99 | 30 | 15 | 96% | 5.1 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 4.10 | 3.99 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 116 | 500 | 99 | 30 | 15 | 96% | 5.1 | 19.8% | 6.0% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 3.85 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 174 | 714 | 119 | 35 | 18 | 97% | 6.0 | 16.4% | 4.9% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 3.52 | 3.59 | +3.7 |
| 2022 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 174 | 714 | 119 | 35 | 18 | 97% | 6.0 | 16.7% | 4.9% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 3.52 | 3.68 | +3.5 |
| 2023 | 37 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 17 | 81 | 359 | 53 | 22 | 33 | 85% | 4.1 | 15.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 7.52 | 8.24 | -3.1 |
| 2023 | 37 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 17 | 81 | 359 | 53 | 22 | 33 | 85% | 4.1 | 14.8% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.52 | 7.88 | -2.7 |
| 2024 | 38 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 76 | 323 | 55 | 15 | 14 | 100% | 5.0 | 14.7% | 5.0% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 5.11 | 5.49 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 38 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 76 | 323 | 55 | 15 | 14 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.0% | 4.6% | 12.4% | 4.3% | 5.11 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 40 | MLB | LAA | 25 | 25 | 150 | 635 | 90 | 45 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 5.23 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | LAA | 22 | 22 | 129 | 546 | 71 | 43 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.68 | 5.98 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 42 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 19 | 111 | 470 | 56 | 40 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 11.9% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.12 | 6.42 | -1.3 |
| 2029 | 43 | MLB | LAA | 16 | 16 | 96 | 404 | 43 | 37 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 10.7% | 9.2% | 1.5% | 5.7% | 6.56 | 6.85 | -1.7 |
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | LAA | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 71 | 43 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.63 | 5.93 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 42 | MLB | LAA | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 56 | 40 | 24 | 100% | 6.2 | 11.9% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.07 | 6.37 | -1.3 |
| 2029 | 43 | MLB | LAA | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 44 | 37 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 10.7% | 9.2% | 1.5% | 5.6% | 6.51 | 6.80 | -1.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 232 | 227 | 1384 | 5782 | 1033 | 385 | 201 | 98% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.35 | 4.34 | +17.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 33 | 200 | 835 | 149 | 56 | 29 | 98% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.35 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 212 | 207 | 1197 | 5007 | 967 | 309 | 179 | 98% | 5.6 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 4.01 | 4.21 | +16.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 836 | 162 | 52 | 30 | 98% | 5.6 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 4.01 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Johnny Cueto (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.55 | 14.2% | 7.1% | 4.3% | — | 6.37 | 12.0% | 3.6% | 336 | +0.82 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Harang R 2023 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 81 |
| Tim Hudson R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 74 |
| John Lackey R 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.88 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 577 | 74 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.64 | 13.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.46 | 12.4% | 4.2% | 14 | +0.82 | 3.92 | 375 | 70 |
| Francisco Campos R 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.67 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.91 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.85 | 332 | 69 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.48 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.48 | 156 | 64 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.31 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .253 | 4.63 | 17.0% | 8.7% | 360 | +0.32 | 4.31 | 574 | 59 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 41 |
| Jason Lane L 2024 · 5.79 FIP | 38 | SP | 5.79 | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.79 | 164 | 38 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.73 | 12.3% | 6.8% | 3.3% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 444 | 37 |
| Barry Zito L 2023 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 36 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 41 | SW | 4.46 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.3% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 0 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 122 | 12.7% | 8.0% | 1.90 | 5.81 |
| Jered Weaver ('17) | 3 | 126 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 1.83 | 5.15 |
| Matt Cain ('17) | 3 | 91 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.51 | 5.58 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Chi Chi González ('22) | 4 | 64 | 13.3% | 9.0% | 1.41 | 5.44 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 4 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |