Justin Verlander
P
Detroit Tigers
+0.5
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 43
RHP
6'5" / 240 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA4.13
FIP4.23
xFIP6.87
SIERA7.06
K%20.7%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%13.1%
IP101
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
OFP—50
STUF5550
CTRL5045
CMD5045
K†5050
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p4724.8%
K%
p4020.7%
xwOBA vs
p440.319
CH (10%)
CU (18%)
FB (42%)
SL-1.6 (30%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 32 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 22 | 22 | 142 | 573 | 125 | 33 | 13 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 3.37 | 3.48 | +2.9 |
| 2016 | 33 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 34 | 34 | 228 | 903 | 254 | 56 | 30 | 28.1% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 3.04 | 3.34 | +5.1 |
| 2017 | 34 | MLB | Houston Astros | 33 | 33 | 206 | 849 | 219 | 68 | 27 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 3.36 | 3.68 | +3.8 |
| 2018 | 35 | MLB | Houston Astros | 34 | 34 | 214 | 833 | 290 | 37 | 28 | 34.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.52 | 2.49 | +6.8 |
| 2019 | 36 | MLB | Houston Astros | 34 | 34 | 223 | 847 | 300 | 42 | 36 | 35.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.58 | 3.00 | +5.8 |
| 2020 | 37 | MLB | Houston Astros | 1 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 39 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 28 | 175 | 666 | 185 | 29 | 12 | 27.8% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.75 | 2.27 | +6.0 |
| 2023 | 40 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 28 | 167 | 686 | 150 | 46 | 18 | 21.5% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 3.13 | 3.72 | +3.0 |
| 2024 | 41 | MLB | Houston Astros | 21 | 21 | 104 | 464 | 91 | 31 | 16 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 5.87 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 42 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 29 | 152 | 662 | 137 | 51 | 16 | 20.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 3.85 | 3.66 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 43 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 12.27 | — | — |
| ROS | 43 | MLB | DET | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 43 | MLB | DET | — | — | 47 | 202 | 39 | 16 | 6 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 3.91 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 44 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 67 | 27 | 10 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.43 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 265 | 265 | 1620 | 6523 | 1748 | 397 | 201 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 3.13 | 3.30 | +36.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 805 | 216 | 49 | 25 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 3.13 | 3.30 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Verlander (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.43 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 80 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Jose Contreras R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 43 | SW | 3.54 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.0% | .263 | 2.98 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 57 | -0.56 | 2.98 | 111 | 43 |
| Rafael Diaz R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 44 | SW | 4.05 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .301 | 3.16 | 16.2% | 9.4% | 152 | -0.89 | 3.06 | 215 | 40 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 43 | SU | 4.43 | 14.0% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.32 | 15.8% | 10.0% | 37 | -1.11 | 3.26 | 123 | 35 |
| Francisco Campos R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 43 | SP- | 4.03 | 12.4% | 4.8% | 2.5% | .272 | 4.61 | 11.2% | 4.3% | 115 | +0.58 | 3.95 | 332 | 30 |
| Tim Hudson R 2023 · 4.40 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 124 | 28 |
| Koji Uehara R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.45 | 28.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 130 | 28 |
| Walter Silva R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 42 | SP- | 4.99 | 9.7% | 8.8% | 2.9% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 428 | 27 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 42 | SU | 5.22 | 12.4% | 8.2% | 3.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 375 | 25 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2024 · 4.55 FIP | 41 | SU | 4.55 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.5% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 8 |
| Bartolo Colon R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 43 | SP | 3.79 | 16.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.94 | 13.3% | 8.7% | 289 | +1.15 | 3.68 | 676 | 0 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.51 | 16.7% | 7.9% | 3.3% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 574 | 0 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.