Justin Verlander
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 43
RHP
6'5" / 240 lbs
AAA
peak 0.9 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 64 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115105vR 96
ERA4.14
FIP4.27
K%20.4%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p4724.8%
K%
p4020.7%
xwOBA vs
p440.319
CH (10%)
CU (18%)
FB (42%)
SL-1.6 (30%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 142 | 573 | 125 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 3.37 | 3.51 | +3.1 |
| 2015 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 142 | 573 | 125 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.8% | 5.8% | 16.1% | 2.3% | 3.37 | 3.23 | +3.6 |
| 2016 | 33 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 34 | 34 | 228 | 903 | 254 | 56 | 30 | 100% | 6.7 | 28.1% | 6.2% | 21.9% | 3.6% | 3.04 | 3.50 | +5.1 |
| 2016 | 33 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 34 | 34 | 228 | 903 | 254 | 56 | 30 | 100% | 6.7 | 28.1% | 6.2% | 21.9% | 3.3% | 3.04 | 3.32 | +5.5 |
| 2017 | 34 | MLB | Houston Astros | 33 | 33 | 206 | 849 | 219 | 68 | 27 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 17.8% | 3.0% | 3.36 | 3.58 | +4.4 |
| 2017 | 34 | MLB | Houston Astros | 33 | 33 | 206 | 849 | 219 | 68 | 27 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 17.8% | 3.2% | 3.36 | 3.67 | +4.2 |
| 2018 | 35 | MLB | Houston Astros | 34 | 34 | 214 | 833 | 290 | 37 | 28 | 100% | 6.3 | 34.8% | 4.4% | 30.4% | 3.2% | 2.52 | 2.46 | +7.4 |
| 2018 | 35 | MLB | Houston Astros | 34 | 34 | 214 | 833 | 290 | 37 | 28 | 100% | 6.3 | 34.8% | 4.4% | 30.4% | 3.4% | 2.52 | 2.61 | +7.0 |
| 2019 | 36 | MLB | Houston Astros | 34 | 34 | 223 | 847 | 300 | 42 | 36 | 100% | 6.6 | 35.4% | 5.0% | 30.5% | 4.0% | 2.58 | 2.94 | +6.4 |
| 2019 | 36 | MLB | Houston Astros | 34 | 34 | 223 | 847 | 300 | 42 | 36 | 100% | 6.6 | 35.4% | 5.0% | 30.5% | 4.3% | 2.58 | 3.07 | +6.1 |
| 2020 | 37 | MLB | Houston Astros | 1 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 33.3% | 4.8% | 28.6% | 9.5% | 3.00 | 6.12 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 37 | MLB | Houston Astros | 1 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 33.3% | 4.8% | 28.6% | 9.5% | 3.00 | 5.60 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 39 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 28 | 175 | 666 | 185 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 27.8% | 4.4% | 23.4% | 1.7% | 1.75 | 2.24 | +6.5 |
| 2022 | 39 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 28 | 175 | 666 | 185 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 27.8% | 4.4% | 23.4% | 1.8% | 1.75 | 2.37 | +6.2 |
| 2023 | 40 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 167 | 686 | 150 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 6.7% | 14.8% | 2.5% | 3.13 | 3.53 | +3.7 |
| 2023 | 40 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 167 | 686 | 150 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.9% | 6.7% | 15.2% | 2.6% | 3.13 | 3.53 | +3.7 |
| 2024 | 41 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 104 | 464 | 91 | 31 | 16 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 5.87 | 4.35 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 41 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 104 | 464 | 91 | 31 | 16 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 5.87 | 4.24 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 42 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 29 | 152 | 662 | 137 | 51 | 16 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.7% | 7.7% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 3.77 | +2.9 |
| 2025 | 42 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 29 | 152 | 662 | 137 | 51 | 16 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.7% | 7.7% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 3.85 | 3.67 | +3.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 43 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 3 | 3 | 14 | 62 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 100% | 4.8 | — | — | — | — | 5.65 | — | — |
| ROS | 43 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 64 | 271 | 55 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 43 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 55 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 43 | MLB | DET | — | — | 78 | 333 | 62 | 24 | 13 | — | — | 18.7% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 3.8% | 4.42 | 3.49 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 43 | MLB | DET | — | — | 68 | 286 | 62 | 24 | 13 | — | — | 21.7% | 8.5% | 13.3% | 4.5% | 5.11 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 44 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 87 | 366 | 71 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.71 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 44 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 71 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.71 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 286 | 286 | 1744 | 7037 | 1850 | 439 | 218 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.3% | 6.2% | 20.0% | 3.1% | 3.20 | 3.37 | +41.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 807 | 212 | 50 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.3% | 6.2% | 20.0% | 3.1% | 3.20 | 3.37 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 267 | 267 | 1631 | 6566 | 1754 | 399 | 204 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.7% | 6.1% | 20.6% | 3.1% | 3.13 | 3.32 | +39.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 805 | 215 | 49 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.7% | 6.1% | 20.6% | 3.1% | 3.13 | 3.32 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Verlander (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.71 | 19.2% | 11.1% | 87 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Bartolo Colon R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 43 | SP | 3.89 | 16.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | .289 | 5.10 | 13.3% | 8.7% | 289 | +1.21 | 3.68 | 676 | 48 |
| Francisco Campos R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 43 | SP | 3.95 | 12.4% | 4.8% | 2.4% | .272 | 4.48 | 11.2% | 4.3% | 115 | +0.53 | 3.85 | 332 | 46 |
| Jose Contreras R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 43 | SP | 3.39 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 1.7% | .263 | 2.90 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 57 | -0.49 | 2.90 | 111 | 44 |
| Tim Hudson R 2023 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 43 |
| Walter Silva R 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.77 | 9.7% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 428 | 42 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.44 | 16.7% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 574 | 38 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 41 | SW | 4.46 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.3% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 0 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 77 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 1.20 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Roenis Elías ('19) | 3 | 72 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 1.08 | 3.74 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |