Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 43 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA peak 1.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.16

FIP4.31

K%20.4%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5550

CTRL5045

CMD5045

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p440.319

CH (10%)

CU (18%)

FB (42%)

SL-1.6 (30%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	142	573	125	33	13	100%	6.4	21.1%	5.8%	15.3%	2.5%	3.37	3.44	+2.5
2015	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	142	573	125	33	13	100%	6.4	21.8%	5.8%	16.1%	2.3%	3.37	3.23	+3.0
2016	33	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	34	34	228	903	254	56	30	100%	6.7	28.1%	6.2%	21.9%	3.5%	3.04	3.41	+4.2
2016	33	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	34	34	228	903	254	56	30	100%	6.7	28.1%	6.2%	21.9%	3.3%	3.04	3.32	+4.5
2017	34	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	33	33	206	849	219	68	27	100%	6.2	25.8%	8.0%	17.8%	3.3%	3.36	3.73	+2.9
2017	34	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	33	33	206	849	219	68	27	100%	6.2	25.8%	8.0%	17.8%	3.2%	3.36	3.67	+3.1
2018	35	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	34	34	214	833	290	37	28	100%	6.3	34.8%	4.4%	30.4%	3.5%	2.52	2.62	+6.3
2018	35	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	34	34	214	833	290	37	28	100%	6.3	34.8%	4.4%	30.4%	3.4%	2.52	2.61	+6.3
2019	36	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	34	34	223	847	300	42	36	100%	6.6	35.4%	5.0%	30.5%	4.4%	2.58	3.14	+4.9
2019	36	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	34	34	223	847	300	42	36	100%	6.6	35.4%	5.0%	30.5%	4.3%	2.58	3.07	+5.1
2020	37	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	1	1	6	21	7	1	2	100%	6.0	33.3%	4.8%	28.6%	9.5%	3.00	6.12	-0.1
2020	37	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	1	1	6	21	7	1	2	100%	6.0	33.3%	4.8%	28.6%	9.5%	3.00	5.60	-0.0
2022	39	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	28	28	175	666	185	29	12	100%	6.2	27.8%	4.4%	23.4%	1.9%	1.75	2.32	+5.9
2022	39	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	28	28	175	666	185	29	12	100%	6.2	27.8%	4.4%	23.4%	1.8%	1.75	2.37	+5.8
2023	40	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	167	686	150	46	18	100%	6.0	21.5%	6.7%	14.8%	2.8%	3.13	3.65	+2.5
2023	40	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	167	686	150	46	18	100%	6.0	21.5%	6.7%	14.8%	2.8%	3.13	3.65	+2.5
2023	40	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	167	686	150	46	18	100%	6.0	21.9%	6.7%	15.2%	2.6%	3.13	3.53	+2.8
2024	41	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	104	464	91	31	16	100%	5.0	18.7%	6.8%	11.9%	3.9%	5.87	4.52	+0.5
2024	41	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	104	464	91	31	16	100%	5.0	18.7%	6.8%	11.9%	3.9%	5.87	4.52	+0.5
2024	41	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	104	464	91	31	16	100%	5.0	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	3.4%	5.87	4.24	+0.8
2025	42	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	29	29	152	662	137	51	16	100%	5.2	20.7%	7.7%	13.0%	2.6%	3.85	3.76	+2.1
2025	42	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	29	29	152	662	137	51	16	100%	5.2	20.7%	7.7%	13.0%	2.6%	3.85	3.76	+2.1
2025	42	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	29	29	152	662	137	51	16	100%	5.2	20.7%	7.7%	13.0%	2.4%	3.85	3.67	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			258	258	1593	6400	1724	389	198	100%	6.2	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	3.1%	3.09	3.28	+32.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	43	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	3	3	14	62	7	4	5	100%	4.8	—	—	—	—	5.65	—	—
YTD	43	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	3	3	14	62	7	4	5	100%	4.8	—	—	—	—	5.65	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	43	AAA RAW	DET	2	2	11	43	6	2	4	100%	5.3	14.0%	4.7%	9.3%	9.3%	3.38	7.62	—
2026	43	MLB RAW	DET	1	1	4	19	1	2	1	100%	3.7	5.3%	10.5%	-5.3%	5.3%	12.27	6.88	—
SO FAR	43	MLB RAW	DET	1	1	4	19	1	2	1	100%	3.7	5.3%	10.5%	-5.3%	5.3%	12.27	6.88	—
ROS	43	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	1.8	20.4%	7.5%	12.9%	2.9%	4.16	4.31	+0.0
ROS	43	MLB CTX	DET	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	20.4%	7.5%	12.9%	2.9%	4.16	4.31	+0.0
2026 TOT	43	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	16	70	9	5	5	—	—	12.3%	6.6%	5.7%	7.5%	5.48	0.49	+0.9
FULL	43	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	5	23	9	5	5	—	—	37.0%	19.7%	17.2%	22.5%	16.12	14.84	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	44	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	87	366	71	30	12	100%	6.2	19.2%	8.2%	11.1%	3.4%	4.51	4.74	+0.2
2027	44	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	87	367	71	30	12	100%	6.2	19.2%	8.2%	11.1%	3.4%	4.51	4.74	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		273	273	1682	6774	1796	420	211	100%	6.2	26.5%	6.2%	20.3%	3.1%	3.16	3.35	+32.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	806	214	50	25	100%	6.2	26.5%	6.2%	20.3%	3.1%	3.16	3.35	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		267	267	1631	6566	1754	399	213	100%	6.1	26.7%	6.1%	20.6%	3.2%	3.13	3.40	+32.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		33	33	200	805	215	49	26	100%	6.1	26.7%	6.1%	20.6%	3.2%	3.13	3.40	+3.8

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Justin Verlander (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	20.4%	7.5%	2.9%	—	4.74	19.2%	11.1%	87	+0.43	—	—	—
Bartolo Colon R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	43	SP	3.88	16.2%	3.8%	3.0%	.289	5.08	13.3%	8.7%	289	+1.20	3.67	676	63
R.A. Dickey R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	42	SP	4.44	16.7%	7.9%	3.2%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	574	55
Francisco Campos R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	43	SP	4.10	12.4%	4.8%	2.6%	.272	4.74	11.2%	4.3%	115	+0.64	4.06	332	46
Jose Contreras R 2015 · 3.55 FIP	43	SP	3.55	20.2%	8.3%	2.0%	.263	2.96	20.5%	13.4%	57	-0.59	2.96	111	45
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	43
Walter Silva R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	42	SP	5.03	9.7%	8.8%	3.0%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	428	42
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	90	19.8%	7.8%	1.22	4.33
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Alec Mills ('21)	1.1	72	19.0%	6.9%	1.41	4.51

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Verlander (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	20.4%	7.5%	2.9%	—	4.74	19.2%	11.1%	87	+0.43	—	—	—
Bartolo Colon R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	43	SP	3.88	16.2%	3.8%	3.0%	.289	5.08	13.3%	8.7%	289	+1.20	3.67	676	63
R.A. Dickey R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	42	SP	4.44	16.7%	7.9%	3.2%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	574	55
Francisco Campos R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	43	SP	4.10	12.4%	4.8%	2.6%	.272	4.74	11.2%	4.3%	115	+0.64	4.06	332	46
Jose Contreras R 2015 · 3.55 FIP	43	SP	3.55	20.2%	8.3%	2.0%	.263	2.96	20.5%	13.4%	57	-0.59	2.96	111	45
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	43
Walter Silva R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	42	SP	5.03	9.7%	8.8%	3.0%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	428	42
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	0

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps