Justin Verlander

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 44 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA peak 1.2 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	41	MIX3 levels	21	21	104	5.87	4.24	19.6%	6.7%	1.4	K 18.7% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.52
2025	42	MLBSF	29	29	152	3.85	3.67	20.7%	7.7%	3.2
2026	43	MIX2 levels	4	4	20	5.03	7.17	15.9%	6.1%	-0.4	K 15.9% · BB 6.1% · FIP 7.22
2027PROJ	44	MLBDET	15	15	93	4.31	4.32	20.4%	7.7%	1.2
2028PROJ	45	MLBDET	7	7	44	4.57	4.75	19.3%	8.4%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs44

FB Velo41

K%40

CompsFrancisco Campos (age 44)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.31

FIP4.32

K%20.4%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP93

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p440.319

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2005	22	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	2	2	11	54	7	5	1	100%	5.7	13.0%	9.3%	3.7%	1.9%	7.15	4.19	+0.2
2005	22	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	2	2	11	54	7	5	1	100%	5.7	13.0%	9.3%	3.7%	1.9%	7.15	4.34	+0.1
2006	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	30	30	186	776	124	59	21	100%	6.2	16.0%	7.6%	8.4%	2.7%	3.63	4.20	+2.6
2006	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	30	30	186	776	124	59	21	100%	6.2	16.0%	7.6%	8.4%	2.7%	3.63	4.19	+2.7
2007	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	32	32	202	866	183	64	20	100%	6.3	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	2.3%	3.66	3.52	+4.6
2007	24	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	32	32	202	866	183	64	20	100%	6.3	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	2.3%	3.66	3.53	+4.6
2008	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	33	33	201	880	163	79	18	100%	6.1	18.5%	9.0%	9.5%	2.0%	4.84	3.80	+3.9
2008	25	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	33	33	201	880	163	79	18	100%	6.1	18.5%	9.0%	9.5%	2.0%	4.84	3.82	+3.8
2009	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	35	35	240	982	269	58	20	100%	6.9	27.4%	5.9%	21.5%	2.0%	3.45	2.65	+8.6
2009	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	35	35	240	982	269	58	20	100%	6.9	27.4%	5.9%	21.5%	2.0%	3.45	2.67	+8.5
2010	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	33	33	224	925	219	71	14	100%	6.8	23.7%	7.7%	16.0%	1.6%	3.37	2.94	+7.0
2010	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	33	33	224	925	219	71	14	100%	6.8	23.7%	7.7%	16.0%	1.5%	3.37	2.91	+7.1
2011	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	34	34	251	969	250	57	24	100%	7.4	25.8%	5.9%	19.9%	2.6%	2.40	3.09	+7.4
2011	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	34	34	251	969	250	57	24	100%	7.4	25.8%	5.9%	19.9%	2.5%	2.40	3.03	+7.6
2012	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	33	33	238	956	239	58	19	100%	7.2	25.0%	6.1%	18.9%	2.1%	2.64	2.90	+7.7
2012	29	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	33	33	238	956	239	58	19	100%	7.2	25.0%	6.1%	18.9%	2.0%	2.64	2.86	+7.8
2013	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	34	34	218	925	217	74	19	100%	6.4	23.5%	8.0%	15.5%	2.1%	3.46	3.31	+5.7
2013	30	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	34	34	218	925	217	74	19	100%	6.4	23.5%	8.0%	15.5%	2.1%	3.46	3.26	+5.8
2014	31	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	32	32	206	893	159	64	18	100%	6.4	17.8%	7.2%	10.6%	2.1%	4.54	3.66	+4.4
2014	31	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	32	32	206	893	159	64	18	100%	6.4	17.8%	7.2%	10.6%	2.0%	4.54	3.62	+4.5
2015	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	142	573	125	33	13	100%	6.4	21.1%	5.8%	15.3%	2.5%	3.37	3.44	+3.4
2015	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	142	573	125	33	13	100%	6.4	21.8%	5.8%	16.1%	2.3%	3.37	3.23	+3.8
2016	33	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	34	34	228	903	254	56	30	100%	6.7	28.1%	6.2%	21.9%	3.5%	3.04	3.41	+5.6
2016	33	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	34	34	228	903	254	56	30	100%	6.7	28.1%	6.2%	21.9%	3.3%	3.04	3.32	+5.9
2017	34	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	33	33	206	849	219	68	27	100%	6.2	25.8%	8.0%	17.8%	3.3%	3.36	3.73	+4.2
2017	34	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	33	33	206	849	219	68	27	100%	6.2	25.8%	8.0%	17.8%	3.2%	3.36	3.67	+4.3
2018	35	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	34	34	214	833	290	37	28	100%	6.3	34.8%	4.4%	30.4%	3.5%	2.52	2.62	+7.7
2018	35	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	34	34	214	833	290	37	28	100%	6.3	34.8%	4.4%	30.4%	3.4%	2.52	2.61	+7.7
2019	36	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	34	34	223	847	300	42	36	100%	6.6	35.4%	5.0%	30.5%	4.4%	2.58	3.14	+6.3
2019	36	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	34	34	223	847	300	42	36	100%	6.6	35.4%	5.0%	30.5%	4.3%	2.58	3.07	+6.5
2020	37	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	1	1	6	21	7	1	2	100%	6.0	33.3%	4.8%	28.6%	9.5%	3.00	6.12	-0.0
2020	37	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	1	1	6	21	7	1	2	100%	6.0	33.3%	4.8%	28.6%	9.5%	3.00	5.60	-0.0
2022	39	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	28	28	175	666	185	29	12	100%	6.2	27.8%	4.4%	23.4%	1.9%	1.75	2.32	+7.1
2022	39	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	28	28	175	666	185	29	12	100%	6.2	27.8%	4.4%	23.4%	1.8%	1.75	2.37	+6.9
2023	40	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	167	686	150	46	18	100%	6.0	21.5%	6.7%	14.8%	2.8%	3.13	3.65	+3.5
2023	40	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	167	686	150	46	18	100%	6.0	21.9%	6.7%	15.2%	2.6%	3.13	3.53	+3.8
2024	41	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	104	464	91	31	16	100%	5.0	18.7%	6.8%	11.9%	3.9%	5.87	4.52	+1.1
2024	41	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	104	464	91	31	16	100%	5.0	18.7%	6.8%	11.9%	3.9%	5.87	4.52	+1.1
2024	41	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	104	464	91	31	16	100%	5.0	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	3.4%	5.87	4.24	+1.4
2025	42	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	29	29	152	662	137	51	16	100%	5.2	20.7%	7.7%	13.0%	2.6%	3.85	3.76	+3.0
2025	42	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	29	29	152	662	137	51	16	100%	5.2	20.7%	7.7%	13.0%	2.6%	3.85	3.76	+3.0
2025	42	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	29	29	152	662	137	51	16	100%	5.2	20.7%	7.7%	13.0%	2.4%	3.85	3.67	+3.2
2026	43	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	20	82	13	5	7	100%	4.9	15.9%	6.1%	9.8%	8.5%	5.03	7.22	-0.4
2026	43	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	20	82	13	5	7	100%	4.9	15.9%	6.1%	9.8%	8.5%	5.03	7.22	-0.4
2026	43	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	20	82	13	5	7	100%	4.9	15.9%	6.1%	9.8%	8.5%	5.03	7.17	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			557	557	3577	14646	3560	979	374	100%	6.4	24.3%	6.7%	17.6%	2.6%	3.33	3.29	+93.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	44	MLB	DET	15	15	93	393	80	30	11	100%	6.2	20.4%	7.7%	12.7%	2.9%	4.31	4.32	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	45	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	44	186	36	16	6	100%	6.3	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	3.3%	4.57	4.75	+0.3
2028	45	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	44	186	36	16	6	100%	6.3	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	3.3%	4.57	4.75	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		564	564	3621	14832	3596	995	380	100%	6.4	24.2%	6.7%	17.5%	2.6%	3.35	3.31	+94.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	819	199	55	21	100%	6.4	24.2%	6.7%	17.5%	2.6%	3.35	3.31	+5.2
Career	—	MLE		566	566	3614	14812	3590	989	393	100%	6.4	24.2%	6.7%	17.6%	2.7%	3.35	3.36	+94.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		31	31	200	820	199	55	22	100%	6.4	24.2%	6.7%	17.6%	2.7%	3.35	3.36	+5.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 11 IPFIP 7.62 → 8.23 (+0.62)K% 14.0% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.95%	—	×0.860	12.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.65%	—	×0.900	4.19%
HR / BF /BF	9.30%	÷1.000	×1.100	10.23%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.62 → 8.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 8 IPFIP 1.66 → 2.03 (+0.37)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.810	17.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.63%	—	×1.100	2.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.970	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 1.66 → 2.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 6 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.29 (+0.63)K% 30.0% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.860	25.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷0.903	×1.100	4.06%

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 8 IPFIP 1.10 → 1.45 (+0.35)K% 31.6% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.880	27.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.050	5.53%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.911	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 1.10 → 1.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Justin Verlander (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.75	19.3%	10.9%	44	+0.43	—	—	—
Francisco Campos R 2017 · 4.06 FIP	44	SP	4.06	12.0%	6.0%	2.2%	.289	6.02	9.8%	1.2%	40	+1.96	4.06	332	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	18.6	186	24.1%	6.9%	1.00	3.37
Curt Schilling ('07)	16.2	180	23.6%	5.3%	0.95	3.42
Zack Greinke ('23) CYAS×6GG×6SS×2HOF	16.9	178	21.5%	5.5%	0.97	3.49
Jerry Koosman ('67-'85, 59 WAR*)	19.2	202	22.8%*	7.4%*	1.04*	3.86*
CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF	17.9	188	20.6%	7.3%	0.96	3.74
Dwight Gooden ('84-'00, 49 WAR*)	14.0	175	24.9%*	8.0%*	0.90*	3.83*
Chuck Finley ('86-'02, 54 WAR*)	16.0	188	24.4%*	9.2%*	0.95*	3.70*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Verlander (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.75	19.3%	10.9%	44	+0.43	—	—	—
Francisco Campos R 2017 · 4.06 FIP	44	SP	4.06	12.0%	6.0%	2.2%	.289	6.02	9.8%	1.2%	40	+1.96	4.06	332	50

Justin Verlander

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps