Zack Greinke
PosP
B/TR/R
Born1983-10-21
Age (2026)42
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 32 | 32 | 223 | 843 | 200 | 39 | 14 | 100% | 7.0 | 23.7% | 4.6% | 19.1% | 1.8% | 1.66 | 2.65 | +7.2 |
| 2015 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 32 | 32 | 223 | 843 | 200 | 39 | 14 | 100% | 7.0 | 23.7% | 4.6% | 19.1% | 1.7% | 1.66 | 2.65 | +7.2 |
| 2016 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 167 | 705 | 144 | 40 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 5.7% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 3.94 | +2.9 |
| 2016 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 167 | 705 | 144 | 40 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 5.7% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 4.43 | 4.04 | +2.6 |
| 2017 | 33 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 32 | 32 | 202 | 801 | 215 | 45 | 25 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.8% | 5.6% | 21.2% | 3.0% | 3.20 | 3.18 | +5.2 |
| 2017 | 33 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 32 | 32 | 202 | 801 | 215 | 45 | 25 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.8% | 5.6% | 21.2% | 3.1% | 3.20 | 3.25 | +5.1 |
| 2018 | 34 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 33 | 208 | 839 | 199 | 40 | 28 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.7% | 4.8% | 19.0% | 3.2% | 3.21 | 3.45 | +4.7 |
| 2018 | 34 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 33 | 208 | 839 | 199 | 40 | 28 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.7% | 4.8% | 19.0% | 3.3% | 3.21 | 3.51 | +4.6 |
| 2019 | 35 | MLB | Houston Astros | 33 | 33 | 209 | 810 | 187 | 28 | 21 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.1% | 3.5% | 19.6% | 2.4% | 2.93 | 2.93 | +6.0 |
| 2019 | 35 | MLB | Houston Astros | 33 | 33 | 209 | 810 | 187 | 28 | 21 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.1% | 3.5% | 19.6% | 2.6% | 2.93 | 3.02 | +5.8 |
| 2020 | 36 | MLB | Houston Astros | 12 | 12 | 67 | 273 | 67 | 9 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.5% | 3.3% | 21.2% | 2.1% | 4.03 | 2.58 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 36 | MLB | Houston Astros | 12 | 12 | 67 | 273 | 67 | 9 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.5% | 3.3% | 21.2% | 2.2% | 4.03 | 2.67 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 173 | 704 | 123 | 36 | 30 | 97% | 5.6 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 4.11 | 4.53 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 173 | 704 | 123 | 36 | 30 | 97% | 5.6 | 17.5% | 5.1% | 12.4% | 4.3% | 4.11 | 4.56 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 38 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 149 | 627 | 81 | 28 | 15 | 100% | 5.3 | 12.5% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.56 | 4.04 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 38 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 149 | 627 | 81 | 28 | 15 | 100% | 5.3 | 12.9% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 3.56 | 3.89 | +2.6 |
| 2023 | 39 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 30 | 27 | 142 | 593 | 97 | 23 | 25 | 90% | 4.7 | 16.4% | 3.9% | 12.5% | 4.5% | 5.06 | 4.68 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 39 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 30 | 27 | 142 | 593 | 97 | 23 | 25 | 90% | 4.7 | 16.4% | 3.9% | 12.5% | 4.2% | 5.06 | 4.51 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 42 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 109 | 460 | 84 | 31 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 43 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 94 | 396 | 68 | 30 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 4.89 | 5.09 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 43 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 68 | 30 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 270 | 266 | 1611 | 6504 | 1360 | 315 | 201 | 99% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 4.8% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 3.50 | 3.64 | +33.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 807 | 169 | 39 | 25 | 99% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 4.8% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 3.50 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 259 | 255 | 1539 | 6195 | 1306 | 289 | 186 | 98% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 4.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 3.42 | 3.56 | +33.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 33 | 200 | 805 | 170 | 38 | 24 | 98% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 4.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 3.42 | 3.56 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zack Greinke (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | — | 5.09 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 94 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Tim Hudson R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 66 |
| Francisco Campos R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.67 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.91 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.85 | 332 | 59 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.44 | 16.7% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 574 | 55 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.77 | 9.7% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 428 | 55 |
| Bartolo Colon R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 42 | SP | 3.68 | 16.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.62 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 481 | +0.94 | 3.68 | 676 | 53 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 41 | SW | 4.46 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.3% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 0 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 101 | 17.8% | 7.2% | 1.40 | 4.73 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Yonny Chirinos ('24) | 4 | 84 | 18.9% | 6.6% | 1.38 | 4.37 |
| Daniel Mengden ('19) | 4 | 73 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 1.24 | 4.68 |
| Doug Fister ('18) | 4 | 110 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 1.19 | 4.56 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |