Alex Acosta

P DSL Rangers Blue

Age 20 LHP ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	ROKDSL Rangers B…	4	13	4.15	6.18	12.1%	8.6%	—	K 8.2% · BB 10.8% · FIP 7.75
2027PROJ	20	MLBTEX	8	8	4.71	4.71	20.5%	10.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBTEX	10	10	4.59	4.54	21.3%	9.5%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJake Higginbotham (age 22) · Vance Tatum (age 21) · Cameron Ming (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%20.5%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP8

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	4	0	13	58	7	5	3	0%	3.2	8.2%	10.8%	-2.6%	7.2%	4.15	7.75	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	4	0	13	58	7	5	3	0%	3.2	8.2%	10.8%	-2.6%	7.2%	4.15	7.75	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	4	0	13	58	7	5	3	0%	3.2	12.1%	8.6%	3.4%	5.2%	4.15	6.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	TEX	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.1%	10.5%	3.1%	4.71	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	18	8	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.59	4.54	+0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	TEX	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.59	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.59	4.16	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	81	20	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.59	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		4	0	13	58	5	6	4	0%	3.2	8.2%	10.8%	-2.6%	7.2%	4.15	7.75	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	0	200	892	73	96	65	0%	3.2	8.2%	10.8%	-2.6%	7.2%	4.15	7.75	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Acosta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.5%	10.1%	3.1%	—	4.54	21.3%	11.7%	20	-0.17	—	—	—
Jake Higginbotham L 2018 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	17.2%	10.6%	3.9%	.256	4.77	18.8%	6.4%	59	-0.38	3.28	335	79
Vance Tatum L 2016 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	17.2%	9.7%	3.9%	.319	5.06	15.6%	2.3%	85	+0.02	4.90	116	75
Cameron Ming L 2018 · 3.80 FIP	22	SU	3.80	17.7%	7.1%	2.4%	.308	5.54	14.3%	4.9%	49	+1.74	3.80	111	74
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	74
Rovaldis Cabrera L 2019 · 5.41 FIP	19	SW	5.41	16.0%	10.1%	4.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	127	73
Francisco Villegas L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	19	SW	4.55	17.0%	8.1%	3.4%	.256	5.85	17.9%	3.1%	59	+1.30	4.55	131	72
Kenny Rosenberg L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	21	SU	3.65	20.8%	6.9%	2.6%	.313	4.64	17.3%	6.9%	361	+0.99	3.44	755	72
Chase Watkins L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.346	4.34	17.7%	9.0%	156	+0.59	3.30	232	72
Zach Morris L 2015 · 3.59 FIP	22	SU	3.59	18.5%	10.1%	1.4%	.286	4.38	13.9%	2.4%	84	+0.79	3.34	109	72
Johnathan Frebis L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	17.0%	9.4%	1.8%	.245	4.24	9.7%	-0.6%	124	+0.43	3.81	146	71
Anderson Parra L 2019 · 5.39 FIP	20	SU	5.39	14.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	104	71
Felix Doubront L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	20.4%	8.8%	2.7%	.312	4.02	21.6%	11.6%	323	+0.02	3.44	719	70
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	70
Oddanier Mosqueda L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	20	SU	3.74	22.8%	11.1%	2.1%	.308	4.10	25.7%	14.1%	106	+0.36	3.05	433	70
Nick Dombkowski L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SU	4.48	21.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.208	4.71	16.7%	7.7%	223	+0.23	3.71	425	70
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.35	164	70
Ever Moya L 2018 · 3.52 FIP	19	SU	3.52	15.2%	7.2%	1.5%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	170	69
Daniel Zamora L 2016 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.82	2.15	310	69
Deyer Zapata L 2024 · 5.79 FIP	20	SU	5.79	18.0%	15.3%	4.1%	.319	3.77	16.2%	7.0%	15	-2.02	3.77	130	69
Drew Harrington L 2016 · 4.18 FIP	21	SU	4.18	15.7%	9.6%	2.1%	.295	4.14	12.5%	5.4%	175	-0.04	3.17	190	69