Owen Nowak

OF Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 L/L A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2214ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	21	AHOU	93	.303/.419/.447	0	5	107	—	.259/.355/.383
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBHOU	203	.223/.296/.337	3	6	80	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBHOU	40	.228/.302/.350	1	1	82	-0.0
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBHOU	87	.231/.304/.356	1	3	85	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Whiff%98

Z-Con%93

K%92

Chase%91

wRC+90

Speed90

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%

CompsCarlos Franco (age 21) · Enmanuel Valdez (age 20) · Vince Fernandez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj PA

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .294 / .334

PA61

HR1

K%25

BB%8

ISO115

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	76	23	5	3	0	12	13	4	5	1	303	419	447	867	145	365	14	13	389	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	81	21	4	3	0	8	18	4	5	1	259	355	383	738	123	334	19	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	81	21	4	3	0	8	18	4	5	1	259	355	383	738	123	333	19	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	76	23	5	3	0	12	13	4	5	1	303	419	447	867	145	365	14	13	389	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	81	21	4	3	0	8	18	4	5	1	259	355	383	738	123	334	19	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	81	21	4	3	0	8	18	4	5	1	259	355	383	738	123	334	19	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	203	182	41	7	3	3	15	50	4	6	1	223	296	337	633	115	291	25	7	286	80	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	116	104	24	4	2	2	9	29	2	4	1	225	299	345	644	120	291	25	8	290	82	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	46%	189	169	39	7	3	3	15	46	3	6	1	228	301	352	653	124	292	24	8	294	85	-3	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	253	227	51	9	3	4	20	61	4	8	2	229	303	357	660	128	292	24	8	296	87	-4	+1	+0	-2	+5	0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	306	274	63	12	4	5	24	74	5	10	2	230	304	361	664	130	292	24	8	298	88	-4	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	332	298	69	13	4	6	26	80	5	11	2	230	303	360	664	130	292	24	8	298	88	-5	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	344	309	70	13	4	6	27	84	5	11	2	228	301	356	657	128	291	24	8	295	86	-6	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	341	306	70	13	4	6	27	84	5	11	2	225	298	349	648	124	289	25	8	291	83	-7	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	336	302	67	12	4	5	26	84	5	10	2	222	295	341	636	119	287	25	8	287	80	-8	+1	-2	-2	+7	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	40	36	10	2	1	1	3	10	1	1	0	228	302	350	651	121	296	25	8	293	82	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	46%	87	79	17	3	1	1	7	21	1	3	1	231	304	356	660	126	297	24	8	297	85	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	131	118	27	5	2	2	10	32	2	4	1	232	305	361	667	129	297	24	8	299	87	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	166	149	35	7	2	3	13	40	3	6	1	233	306	365	671	132	297	24	8	301	88	-2	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	180	161	37	7	2	3	14	44	3	6	1	233	306	364	670	132	296	24	8	301	88	-3	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	187	167	38	7	2	3	15	46	3	6	1	231	304	360	664	129	295	25	8	298	86	-3	+1	-0	-1	+4	0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	181	162	37	7	2	3	14	45	3	6	1	228	301	353	654	125	294	25	8	294	83	-4	+1	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	176	157	36	7	2	3	14	44	3	5	1	225	297	346	643	121	292	25	8	289	80	-4	+1	-1	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1148	1029	237	45	14	19	90	282	19	37	7	230	304	357	661	126	297	25	8	297	86	-20	+5	-2	-7	+25	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	134	25	8	11	51	160	11	21	4	230	304	357	661	127	296	25	8	297	86	-12	+3	-1	-4	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	2371	2125	486	89	32	38	187	575	39	78	15	229	303	354	657	126	294	24	8	295	86	-41	+9	-4	-14	+49	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	133	24	9	10	51	158	11	21	4	228	303	352	654	123	294	24	8	295	86	-12	+3	-1	-4	+14	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 93 PAwOBA .380 → .326 (−53)K% 14.0% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.98%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	19.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.90%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	9.04%
HBP% /PA	4.30%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	3.41%
Singles /BIP	23.81%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.004	×1.015	22.31%
Doubles /BIP	7.94%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.004	×1.015	6.71%
Triples /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.004	×1.015	4.41%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .380 → .326; ISO .145 → .130; BABIP .365 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Max Venable'79-'91 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	18	64	238*	301*	371*	-11	-1	0.9	1.9
/162	664	8	27	-4.6	-0.3	0.4	pk7: 3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.8	1,209	20	39	228	298	354	-7	+0	0.9	0.9
/162	664	11	21	-4.0	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Owen Nowak (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	221/294/334	114	291	1	2	25%	8%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Franco 2013 · A	21	41→49	37→45	49→45	46	195/264/270	75	273	5	9	29%	8%	53	-2.1	208/262/288	80	293	6	7	29%	7%	55	-1.9	214/266/324	110	318	13	2	35%	6%	64	-1.1
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2019 · A	20	38→47	41→55	49→45	46	187/255/292	105	242	8	7	26%	8%	55	-2.0	196/249/318	122	264	13	7	30%	6%	59	-1.7	223/287/404	181	270	24	8	27%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Vince Fernandez 2017 · A	22	44→39	42→55	51→45	36	208/255/322	114	329	8	7	38%	6%	61	-1.5	192/255/321	129	321	13	8	41%	7%	62	-1.4	185/258/357	172	283	20	4	40%	6%	70	-0.4
✕Dillon Dobson 2016 · A	22	42→43	40→50	50→40	38	205/246/305	100	285	6	5	30%	5%	53	-2.1	201/247/336	135	292	14	3	35%	5%	62	-1.4	185/235/323	138	272	16	3	37%	5%	53	-1.5
✕Robbie Widlansky 2009 · A	24	44→54	40→45	51→45	42	213/257/313	100	268	7	8	23%	5%	60	-1.6	250/289/361	111	302	9	4	20%	4%	83	+0.1	253/301/351	98	301	8	4	18%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Jordan Lennerton 2009 · A	23	40→50	38→45	47→30	45	187/267/270	82	302	5	5	37%	10%	55	-2.0	219/289/334	115	333	11	2	34%	9%	77	-0.3	233/307/364	131	322	14	1	30%	9%	89	+0.5
✕Felix Munoz 2014 · A	22	45→52	37→40	47→30	43	216/261/291	75	273	4	5	22%	6%	56	-1.9	233/278/336	103	281	9	2	20%	6%	73	-0.6	232/277/333	101	277	9	1	19%	6%	70	-0.7
✕Joe Naranjo 2022 · A	21	43→48	38→40	50→45	41	200/265/272	71	308	5	7	35%	7%	54	-2.0	197/280/291	94	294	9	5	33%	10%	65	-1.2	183/272/272	89	271	9	3	33%	10%	55	-1.3
✕Baltazar Lopez 2006 · A	22	47	36→50	45	38	216/262/282	66	335	2	8	35%	6%	54	-2.0	242/288/342	100	344	9	7	30%	6%	78	-0.3	251/290/370	119	338	13	8	29%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Romy Gonzalez 2021 · A	24	40→44	41→50	51→55	36	194/250/296	102	302	8	10	37%	6%	54	-2.0	219/265/361	142	317	17	18	35%	5%	75	-0.5	270/316/424	155	341	15	16	25%	5%	108	+0.9
✕Wilson Garcia 2016 · A	22	47→53	37→55	49→40	44	218/253/293	75	252	3	6	15%	4%	53	-2.1	242/262/339	97	274	9	2	15%	2%	67	-1.1	240/269/398	158	268	21	0	20%	3%	82	+0.0
✕Avain Rachal 2015 · A	21	41	38→40	53→50	42	196/262/272	77	283	5	11	31%	7%	53	-2.1	192/267/268	76	303	6	10	36%	8%	55	-2.0	181/262/247	66	288	5	10	36%	8%	45	-1.4
✕Blake Lalli 2007 · A	24	43→53	39→45	47→30	41	206/256/289	83	264	6	8	24%	5%	54	-2.0	256/291/359	103	310	8	4	20%	4%	83	+0.1	281/323/380	98	326	7	0	15%	5%	98	+0.9
✕Henry Wrigley 2010 · A	23	42→48	43→50	48→45	38	208/234/325	117	250	10	7	22%	3%	53	-2.1	228/257/366	138	271	14	5	21%	4%	72	-0.7	232/263/388	157	269	17	3	21%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Michael Flacco 2010 · A	23	43→44	39→45	52→45	40	205/250/298	93	263	5	8	24%	4%	53	-2.1	213/270/306	93	276	6	6	24%	6%	63	-1.3	201/263/296	94	258	7	6	24%	6%	57	-1.0
✕Eric Wagaman 2019 · A	21	42→52	40→50	47→45	36	199/251/289	90	316	8	6	38%	6%	53	-2.1	188/238/279	91	291	9	5	36%	6%	45	-2.7	244/291/387	143	291	14	11	21%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Yermín Mercedes 2015 · A	22	43→53	37→50	45	49	201/271/269	68	241	4	7	18%	7%	56	-1.9	233/271/374	141	281	16	3	23%	5%	79	-0.2	242/292/392	150	282	20	3	21%	6%	92	+0.5
✕Willie Carmona 2013 · A	22	44→54	42→45	44→30	39	217/257/321	104	289	9	4	28%	5%	61	-1.5	231/269/329	98	310	7	3	26%	5%	68	-1.0	263/300/373	110	344	7	1	24%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Tim Lynch 2017 · A	24	41	38→60	50→30	48	192/258/284	92	245	3	4	22%	8%	54	-2.0	216/269/357	141	274	15	3	26%	6%	75	-0.5	234/281/446	212	278	28	0	27%	5%	98	+0.5
✕Paul Kronenfeld 2015 · A	23	41	39→45	48→30	42	196/262/282	86	293	6	6	33%	8%	55	-1.9	203/257/301	98	293	7	4	31%	7%	57	-1.8	192/242/298	107	269	8	1	30%	6%	48	-1.3

Owen Nowak

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps