Joe Naranjo
1B Harrisburg Senators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | AACLE | 343 | .201/.324/.278 | 3 | 0 | 57 | — | .193/.288/.263 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA/A+2 orgs | 349 | .208/.306/.290 | 3 | 3 | 30 | — | .170/.237/.239 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAWSH | 418 | .227/.347/.299 | 3 | 2 | 70 | — | .217/.308/.277 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBWSH | 3 | .192/.277/.259 | 0 | 0 | 55 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBWSH | 45 | .193/.278/.263 | 0 | 0 | 57 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians Red | — | 200 | 177 | 47 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 266 | 347 | 333 | 680 | 68 | 346 | 22 | 11 | 312 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 426 | 374 | 88 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 44 | 115 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 235 | 325 | 324 | 649 | 88 | 322 | 27 | 10 | 299 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 514 | 425 | 100 | 16 | 3 | 18 | 82 | 131 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 235 | 365 | 414 | 779 | 179 | 295 | 25 | 16 | 352 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 343 | 288 | 58 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 45 | 84 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 324 | 278 | 601 | 76 | 270 | 24 | 13 | 284 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 128 | 109 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 211 | 312 | 266 | 578 | 55 | 286 | 27 | 12 | 268 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 221 | 194 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 303 | 304 | 607 | 98 | 297 | 29 | 12 | 282 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 418 | 348 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 61 | 98 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 347 | 299 | 646 | 72 | 303 | 23 | 15 | 301 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians Red | — | 200 | 185 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 241 | 227 | 468 | 43 | 270 | 32 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 426 | 387 | 75 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 151 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 194 | 264 | 258 | 523 | 65 | 299 | 35 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 514 | 447 | 87 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 60 | 164 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 195 | 297 | 324 | 621 | 130 | 266 | 32 | 12 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 343 | 300 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 105 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 288 | 263 | 552 | 70 | 277 | 31 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 128 | 113 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 195 | 272 | 248 | 520 | 53 | 273 | 33 | 9 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 221 | 205 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 86 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 156 | 217 | 234 | 451 | 78 | 255 | 39 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 418 | 364 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 120 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 308 | 277 | 586 | 60 | 309 | 29 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians Red | — | 200 | 185 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 241 | 227 | 468 | 43 | 270 | 32 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians Red | — | 200 | 177 | 47 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 266 | 347 | 333 | 680 | 68 | 346 | 22 | 11 | 312 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 426 | 387 | 75 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 151 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 194 | 264 | 258 | 523 | 65 | 303 | 35 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 426 | 374 | 88 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 44 | 115 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 235 | 325 | 324 | 649 | 88 | 322 | 27 | 10 | 299 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 514 | 447 | 87 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 60 | 164 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 195 | 297 | 324 | 621 | 130 | 272 | 32 | 12 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 514 | 425 | 100 | 16 | 3 | 18 | 82 | 131 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 235 | 365 | 414 | 779 | 179 | 295 | 25 | 16 | 352 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 343 | 300 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 105 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 288 | 263 | 552 | 70 | 282 | 31 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 343 | 288 | 58 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 45 | 84 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 324 | 278 | 601 | 76 | 270 | 24 | 13 | 284 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 349 | 318 | 53 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 128 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 167 | 234 | 226 | 461 | 60 | 267 | 37 | 8 | 212 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 349 | 303 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 98 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 208 | 306 | 290 | 597 | 83 | 293 | 28 | 12 | 277 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 418 | 364 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 120 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 308 | 277 | 586 | 60 | 313 | 29 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 418 | 348 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 61 | 98 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 347 | 299 | 646 | 72 | 303 | 23 | 15 | 301 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians Red | — | 200 | 184 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 241 | 228 | 469 | 43 | 270 | 32 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 426 | 386 | 75 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 151 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 194 | 264 | 259 | 523 | 65 | 299 | 35 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 514 | 444 | 87 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 60 | 164 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 196 | 297 | 327 | 623 | 131 | 266 | 32 | 12 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 343 | 300 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 105 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 288 | 263 | 552 | 70 | 277 | 31 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 349 | 318 | 53 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 128 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 167 | 234 | 226 | 461 | 60 | 262 | 37 | 8 | 212 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 418 | 367 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 120 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 215 | 308 | 275 | 583 | 60 | 309 | 29 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 349 | 318 | 53 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 128 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 167 | 234 | 226 | 461 | 60 | 262 | 37 | 8 | 212 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 418 | 367 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 120 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 215 | 308 | 275 | 583 | 60 | 309 | 29 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 2% | 380 | 338 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 110 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 192 | 277 | 259 | 536 | 67 | 273 | 29 | 10 | 250 | 55 | -20 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +8 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 277 | 259 | 536 | 67 | 273 | 33 | 0 | 250 | 55 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 27% | 167 | 148 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 278 | 264 | 542 | 70 | 273 | 29 | 10 | 252 | 57 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +4 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 27% | 45 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 278 | 263 | 541 | 70 | 273 | 29 | 9 | 252 | 57 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 45 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 267 | 244 | 511 | 49 | 286 | 29 | 9 | 252 | 54 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 116 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 268 | 245 | 513 | 49 | 287 | 29 | 9 | 252 | 54 | -34 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -3.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2572 | 2287 | 440 | 77 | 6 | 27 | 241 | 824 | 24 | 22 | 1 | 192 | 276 | 267 | 543 | 74 | 284 | 32 | 9 | 249 | 54 | -17 | +1 | +0 | -6 | +7 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 111 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 61 | 208 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 192 | 276 | 268 | 544 | 76 | 283 | 32 | 9 | 249 | 54 | -34 | +1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -3.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 418 PAwOBA .297 → .271 (−26)K% 23.4% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.44% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.59% | ÷0.967 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 10.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.40% | ÷1.009 | ×0.970 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 24.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.60% | ÷0.887 | ×0.860 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷0.913 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .297 → .271; ISO .072 → .069; BABIP .303 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 221 PAwOBA .275 → .200 (−75)K% 29.0% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.96% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 38.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×1.013 | ×0.998 | 16.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | ×1.013 | ×0.998 | 8.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×1.013 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.016 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.33% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .275 → .200; ISO .098 → .076; BABIP .297 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 128 PAwOBA .268 → .232 (−36)K% 26.6% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.56% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.33% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 24.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.944 | ×0.860 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 3.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.950 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.966 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.11% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 105, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .268 → .232; ISO .055 → .047; BABIP .286 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAkron RubberDucks · 343 PAwOBA .280 → .252 (−28)K% 24.5% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.49% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.12% | ÷0.988 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 9.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×1.042 | 21.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.37% | ÷0.933 | ×0.860 | ×1.027 | ×1.042 | 6.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.053 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.909 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.32% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 111, K 95, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .280 → .252; ISO .076 → .071; BABIP .270 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Lake County Captains · 514 PAwOBA .343 → .275 (−68)K% 25.5% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.49% | ÷1.015 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.56% | ÷0.975 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 11.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 20.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.44% | ÷1.005 | ×0.810 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.970 | ×0.850 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.134 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.43% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 94, K 103, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .343 → .275; ISO .179 → .132; BABIP .295 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Lake County Captains · 426 PAwOBA .292 → .237 (−56)K% 27.0% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.00% | ÷1.026 | ×1.350 | — | — | 35.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.09% | ÷1.017 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 7.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.25% | ÷1.041 | ×0.910 | ×1.028 | ×1.042 | 24.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.02% | ÷0.941 | ×0.830 | ×1.028 | ×1.042 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.39% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.028 | ×1.042 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.32% | ÷1.222 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.042 | 1.64% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .292 → .237; ISO .088 → .066; BABIP .322 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Indians Red · 200 PAwOBA .306 → .213 (−93)K% 22.0% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 6.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 23.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 2.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.60% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .306 → .213; ISO .068 → .045; BABIP .346 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).