Andrew Herbert

P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 26 RHP A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	25	MIX2 levels	18	7	76	3.08	4.07	20.5%	10.6%	—	K 15.1% · BB 11.9% · FIP 5.18
2027PROJ	26	MLBBAL	48	0	50	5.14	5.14	17.5%	11.5%	-0.3
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBBAL	23	0	24	5.08	5.09	18.1%	11.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBBAL	36	0	38	5.08	5.12	18.4%	11.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsNolan Sanburn (age 26) · Danny Kirwin (age 24) · Carlos Torres (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%17.5%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	76	322	66	34	8	39%	4.2	15.1%	11.9%	3.3%	3.4%	3.08	5.18	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	76	322	66	34	8	39%	4.2	15.1%	11.9%	3.3%	3.4%	3.08	5.18	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	7	76	322	66	34	8	39%	4.2	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	2.5%	3.08	4.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	48	0	50	211	37	24	6	0%	1.0	17.5%	11.5%	6.0%	3.1%	5.14	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	64	0	67	285	52	32	9	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.4%	6.7%	3.1%	5.08	5.09	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	62	0	65	276	51	31	9	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.3%	7.0%	3.2%	5.08	5.12	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	60	0	62	264	49	30	9	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.5%	6.9%	3.3%	5.14	5.21	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	23	0	24	101	18	12	3	0%	1.0	18.1%	11.4%	6.7%	3.1%	5.08	5.09	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	36	0	38	160	29	18	5	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.3%	7.0%	3.2%	5.08	5.12	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	42	0	44	186	34	21	6	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.5%	6.9%	3.3%	5.14	5.21	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	0	107	451	83	51	15	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.4%	6.9%	3.2%	5.10	4.77	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	96	28	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.4%	6.9%	3.2%	5.10	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		18	7	76	322	49	38	11	39%	4.2	15.1%	11.9%	3.3%	3.4%	3.08	5.18	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	18	200	847	128	101	29	39%	4.2	15.1%	11.9%	3.3%	3.4%	3.08	5.18	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Herbert (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	17.5%	11.5%	3.1%	—	5.14	18.3%	6.9%	195	-0.00	—	—	—
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	84
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	80
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	78
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	76
Carlos Tavera R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	25	SW	5.12	18.3%	13.3%	3.4%	.299	5.43	21.9%	8.8%	29	+0.31	3.85	263	76
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	76
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	76
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	76
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	74
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	74
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	74
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	74
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	73
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	73
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	73
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	73
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	73
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.55	20.8%	9.1%	172	-1.27	2.64	280	73
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	61	18.1%	11.4%	1.23	5.11
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*