Eliezer Arias

SS DSL Rojos

Age 18 R/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Rojos	109	.133/.327/.253	2	6	10	—	.078/.224/.144
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLB—	219	.196/.282/.281	2	6	62	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLB—	64	.201/.288/.294	1	2	67	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLB—	157	.206/.292/.306	2	5	72	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%89

Speed87

BB%85

Whiff%56

ISO52

Z-Con%42

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJose Paez (age 18) · Yunior Garcia (age 18) · Alberto Rodriguez (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 93 proj PA

wRC+62

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .280 / .279

PA93

HR1

K%31

BB%10

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Rojos	—	109	83	11	2	1	2	23	35	1	6	1	133	327	253	580	120	191	32	21	280	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	109	90	7	1	1	1	16	43	1	6	1	78	224	144	369	67	123	39	15	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	109	90	7	1	1	1	16	43	1	6	1	78	224	144	369	67	128	39	15	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	—	109	83	11	2	1	2	23	35	1	6	1	133	327	253	580	120	191	32	21	280	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	109	91	7	1	1	1	16	43	1	6	1	77	224	143	367	66	123	39	15	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	109	91	7	1	1	1	16	43	1	6	1	77	224	143	367	66	123	39	15	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	—	0%	219	194	38	6	2	2	21	69	2	6	1	196	282	281	563	85	288	32	10	260	62	-10	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	34%	185	163	34	6	2	2	18	57	2	6	1	201	288	294	582	93	290	31	10	268	67	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2029	20	MLB MLE	—	48%	325	286	59	10	3	4	32	98	4	11	3	206	292	306	598	100	292	30	10	274	72	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2030	21	MLB MLE	—	54%	432	382	80	14	4	6	42	128	5	15	4	209	296	316	612	106	293	30	10	279	75	-13	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2031	22	MLB MLE	—	57%	508	448	94	16	4	8	49	148	6	18	5	213	299	325	624	112	294	29	10	284	78	-13	+2	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2032	23	MLB MLE	—	58%	559	494	106	18	5	10	54	161	6	20	5	216	301	333	634	117	295	29	10	288	81	-13	+2	+0	+6	+12	0.8
2033	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	593	524	113	19	5	11	57	170	7	21	6	217	302	336	638	119	296	29	10	289	82	-13	+2	+0	+6	+13	0.8
2034	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	612	541	117	20	5	11	59	176	7	22	6	217	303	337	640	120	296	29	10	290	83	-13	+2	+0	+7	+13	0.9
2035	26	MLB MLE	—	57%	622	550	119	20	5	12	60	179	7	22	6	217	303	339	641	121	295	29	10	291	83	-13	+2	+0	+7	+13	1.0
2036	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	623	550	119	20	5	12	61	180	7	22	6	216	302	336	638	120	295	29	10	289	82	-13	+2	+0	+7	+13	0.9
2037	28	MLB MLE	—	55%	620	548	117	20	5	11	60	180	7	21	6	214	300	331	631	117	294	29	10	287	80	-15	+2	-1	+7	+13	0.7
2038	29	MLB MLE	—	53%	610	540	115	19	5	11	59	179	6	20	6	212	297	326	623	113	293	29	10	283	78	-16	+2	-1	+7	+13	0.4
2039	30	MLB MLE	—	57%	600	532	112	19	5	10	57	178	6	20	6	209	294	318	612	109	291	30	10	279	75	-18	+2	-2	+6	+13	0.1
2040	31	MLB MLE	—	60%	586	519	107	18	5	9	56	176	6	18	7	205	289	309	598	103	288	30	10	273	71	-20	+1	-3	+6	+13	-0.3
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	34%	64	57	12	2	1	1	6	20	1	2	1	201	288	294	582	93	290	31	9	268	67	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	20	MLB CTX	—	48%	157	139	28	5	1	2	15	47	2	5	1	206	292	306	598	100	292	30	10	274	72	-5	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2030	21	MLB CTX	—	54%	234	206	42	7	2	3	23	69	3	8	2	209	296	316	612	106	293	29	10	279	75	-7	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2031	22	MLB CTX	—	57%	288	255	55	9	3	5	28	84	3	10	3	213	299	325	624	112	294	29	10	284	78	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2032	23	MLB CTX	—	58%	322	284	62	11	3	6	31	93	4	11	3	216	301	333	634	117	295	29	10	288	81	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2033	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	338	298	65	11	3	6	33	97	4	12	3	217	302	336	638	119	296	29	10	289	82	-7	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2034	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	347	306	67	11	3	7	34	100	4	12	3	217	303	337	640	120	296	29	10	290	83	-7	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2035	26	MLB CTX	—	57%	352	311	68	12	3	7	34	101	4	12	3	217	303	339	641	121	295	29	10	291	83	-7	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2036	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	346	305	66	11	3	7	34	100	4	12	3	216	302	336	638	120	295	29	10	289	82	-7	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2037	28	MLB CTX	—	55%	340	300	65	11	3	6	33	99	4	12	3	214	300	331	631	117	294	29	10	287	80	-8	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.4
2038	29	MLB CTX	—	53%	326	289	62	10	3	6	31	96	3	11	3	212	297	326	623	113	293	29	10	283	78	-9	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.2
2039	30	MLB CTX	—	57%	343	304	65	11	3	6	33	102	3	11	4	209	294	318	612	109	291	30	10	279	75	-10	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.0
2040	31	MLB CTX	—	60%	349	310	64	11	3	5	33	105	3	11	4	205	289	309	598	103	288	30	9	273	71	-12	+1	-2	+4	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3806	3364	721	122	34	67	368	1113	42	129	36	214	300	331	630	116	297	29	10	284	77	-97	+11	-4	+41	+82	3.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	123	21	6	11	63	190	7	22	6	214	300	329	628	115	296	29	10	284	77	-17	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7077	6250	1316	223	60	119	689	2082	78	245	69	211	297	323	619	112	293	29	10	282	77	-181	+21	-7	+75	+151	5.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	121	20	6	11	63	191	7	23	6	211	296	324	620	113	293	29	10	282	77	-17	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.9	3,899	66	133	213	295	327	+42	+24	6.0	5.4
/162	664	11	23	+7.1	+4.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Bill Cissell'28-'38 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,998 PA	6.0	3,998	29	113	240*	284*	363*	+27	+22	2.2	3.8
/162	664	5	19	+4.5	+3.7	0.4	pk7: 5
#5Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Enzo Hernandez'71-'78 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,612 PA	3.9	2,612	2	129	222*	281*	294*	+28	+4	1.6	1.9
/162	664	1	33	+7.0	+1.0	0.4	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Eliezer Arias (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	195/280/279	84	288	1	3	31%	10%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Paez 2012 · A	18	35	35→45	50	45	168/242/229	61	241	3	16	30%	8%	36	-3.4	205/255/285	80	282	4	12	27%	5%	53	-2.1	205/252/286	81	285	3	12	28%	5%	48	-0.8
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	35→45	40→45	52→30	43	176/241/269	92	235	7	10	27%	7%	45	-2.7	192/242/291	99	291	9	7	36%	5%	49	-2.4	228/278/346	118	323	12	2	32%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2019 · A	18	38→48	37→50	51→50	46	184/251/255	71	245	5	16	26%	8%	45	-2.7	213/271/308	95	288	7	14	27%	7%	64	-1.3	228/292/360	132	326	11	7	31%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Luis Liberato 2015 · A	19	36→46	37→50	52→50	44	176/243/245	69	250	4	14	30%	8%	39	-3.1	199/256/296	97	299	6	9	33%	7%	55	-1.9	221/286/368	148	299	15	9	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Hans Montero 2023 · A	19	33→37	34→45	52→55	46	155/258/205	50	256	2	18	36%	10%	38	-3.2	176/261/263	87	286	8	16	37%	9%	52	-2.2	167/249/265	98	276	10	18	40%	9%	45	-1.4
✕Yordalin Peña 2023 · A	18	38→37	38→55	55	39	186/236/267	80	251	5	10	27%	5%	41	-3.0	181/241/265	84	255	5	12	29%	6%	43	-2.8	184/241/311	127	279	12	17	37%	6%	52	-1.2
✕Eudy Pina 2010 · A	19	37→47	38→45	54→55	40	179/256/258	79	274	6	20	35%	7%	49	-2.4	185/243/256	71	263	4	16	30%	5%	42	-2.9	217/270/333	115	305	8	11	30%	5%	67	-0.8
✕Jose Alpuria 2024 · A	19	35	35→55	50→55	39	166/252/223	57	258	3	18	34%	6%	40	-3.1	193/281/278	85	301	7	21	35%	7%	63	-1.3	199/293/313	114	306	10	25	35%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Jean Selmo 2018 · A	18	37	38→40	53→45	42	178/244/257	79	264	5	8	33%	7%	43	-2.8	187/256/268	81	287	4	8	33%	8%	49	-2.4	189/276/283	93	254	3	8	24%	10%	59	-0.6
✕Capri Ortiz 2023 · A	18	37→47	37→40	51→55	38	182/231/258	76	261	4	15	31%	5%	37	-3.3	199/263/269	70	327	3	20	37%	7%	52	-2.2	200/268/269	69	321	4	24	36%	7%	51	-1.3
✕Diego Infante 2018 · A	18	40→50	35→45	53→50	43	189/237/252	63	250	2	12	24%	6%	38	-3.2	194/238/262	68	291	3	10	32%	5%	40	-3.0	233/284/360	127	349	14	14	35%	6%	79	-0.2
●Óscar Mercado 2014 · A	19	38→48	37→50	52→60	40	182/240/255	73	262	4	13	30%	6%	40	-3.0	193/242/260	67	241	4	23	20%	5%	42	-2.9	245/308/380	135	288	13	27	19%	7%	93	+0.7
✕Roni Cabrera 2023 · A	18	38	37→45	51→55	42	182/249/251	69	265	4	10	31%	7%	43	-2.8	183/257/282	99	270	8	12	33%	8%	54	-2.0	154/234/265	111	235	11	17	37%	8%	40	-0.8
●Juan Lagares 2007 · A	18	40→50	38→45	53→50	45	192/255/278	86	256	4	11	26%	7%	51	-2.2	206/244/285	79	280	4	10	26%	4%	48	-2.5	276/309/387	111	347	6	13	22%	4%	93	+0.7
✕Michael Crouse 2010 · A	19	37→40	38→50	57→55	39	180/241/261	81	283	4	21	36%	7%	42	-2.9	190/255/312	122	314	11	20	40%	7%	59	-1.6	197/265/323	127	300	12	19	36%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Simon Juan 2023 · A	18	36	36→45	56→50	41	174/240/244	70	245	3	14	29%	6%	38	-3.2	186/239/274	88	284	8	9	35%	6%	45	-2.7	182/234/279	97	282	10	10	38%	5%	41	-1.2
✕Henry Ramos 2023 · A	18	36→46	34→40	55	49	170/255/219	49	238	2	17	27%	9%	39	-3.1	176/240/238	62	262	3	16	31%	7%	37	-3.3	201/266/273	72	289	5	18	30%	7%	51	-1.1
✕Raylin Heredia 2023 · A	19	38→48	38→50	53→50	37	183/232/269	87	270	4	9	33%	5%	40	-3.0	200/252/309	109	324	9	11	39%	5%	57	-1.8	219/257/356	137	317	16	15	35%	4%	67	-0.6
✕Juan Alonso 2022 · A	18	40→37	36→40	43→50	42	189/253/255	66	268	3	10	29%	7%	45	-2.7	186/285/263	77	351	4	9	43%	10%	61	-1.5	162/274/240	78	346	5	7	47%	10%	51	-1.0
✕Dixon Machado 2010 · A	18	38→48	36→45	53→55	52	174/248/232	58	203	4	19	16%	8%	39	-3.1	199/255/242	43	252	2	17	20%	7%	42	-2.9	254/310/331	78	304	5	12	17%	7%	81	-0.1

Eliezer Arias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps