Peyton Niksch

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX3 levels	30	3	67	4.46	4.66	20.3%	7.9%	—	K 15.6% · BB 8.9% · FIP 5.56
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIL	45	0	47	5.16	5.16	16.6%	8.9%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIL	25	0	26	4.98	4.92	18.5%	8.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIL	39	0	41	4.84	4.78	19.6%	8.5%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJack Jasiak (age 23) · Scott Burke (age 24) · Reece Karalus (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%16.6%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	3	67	305	62	24	12	10%	2.2	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	4.8%	4.46	5.56	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	3	67	305	62	24	12	10%	2.2	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	4.8%	4.46	5.56	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	3	67	305	62	24	12	10%	2.2	20.3%	7.9%	12.5%	3.9%	4.46	4.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIL	45	0	47	198	33	18	7	0%	1.0	16.6%	8.9%	7.6%	3.6%	5.16	5.16	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	59	0	62	260	48	22	9	0%	1.0	18.5%	8.6%	9.8%	3.5%	4.98	4.92	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	59	0	62	263	52	22	9	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.84	4.78	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	25	0	26	110	20	9	4	0%	1.0	18.5%	8.6%	9.8%	3.5%	4.98	4.92	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	39	0	41	173	34	15	6	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.84	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	68	285	55	24	10	0%	1.1	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	3.4%	4.89	4.46	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	71	30	0%	1.1	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	3.4%	4.89	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		30	3	67	305	48	27	15	10%	2.2	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	4.8%	4.46	5.56	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	9	200	915	143	81	44	10%	2.2	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	4.8%	4.46	5.56	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Niksch (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	16.6%	8.9%	3.6%	—	4.85	19.0%	10.5%	124	-0.31	—	—	—
Jack Jasiak R 2024 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	15.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.332	3.39	22.3%	15.0%	126	-1.20	3.24	262	89
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	88
Reece Karalus R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	14.0%	9.1%	3.4%	.303	4.73	15.4%	3.5%	55	-0.18	4.73	149	88
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	88
Jaycob Deese R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	17.4%	6.8%	4.0%	.309	4.83	13.6%	4.4%	140	+0.15	3.28	208	87
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	87
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	87
Luis Eusebio R 2019 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	131	87
Anyelo Leclerc R 2015 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	16.2%	9.8%	3.7%	.326	4.65	15.9%	6.1%	96	-0.35	4.65	140	86
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	86
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	86
Peyton Stumbo R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	19.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.326	4.93	15.6%	6.8%	211	-0.18	4.10	279	86
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	86
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	86
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	85
Matt Eckelman R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	23	SU	4.73	15.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.304	4.23	17.4%	5.7%	97	-0.50	4.07	386	85
Miguel Guerrero R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	23	SU	4.56	18.1%	10.3%	3.1%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	171	85
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	85
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	85
Colin Welmon R 2016 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	13.8%	9.6%	4.6%	.339	5.33	12.0%	5.0%	73	-0.32	5.33	142	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	18.4%	8.7%	1.34	4.98
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*