Hayden Cuthbertson

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	A+MIA	4	5	0.00	1.90	33.3%	11.1%	—	K 33.3% · BB 11.1% · FIP 1.69
2026	22	MIX2 levels	32	42	6.70	6.03	19.9%	18.4%	—	K 14.9% · BB 23.7% · FIP 7.50
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIA	17	18	6.27	6.27	17.9%	20.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIA	16	17	5.85	5.71	19.4%	16.8%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJackson Lancaster (age 24) · Dillon Larsen (age 24) · Nicolo Pinazzi (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136144vR 152

ERA6.27

FIP6.27

K%17.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-2.1%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	4	0	5	18	6	2	0	0%	1.2	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	4	0	5	18	6	2	0	0%	1.2	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	4	0	5	18	6	2	0	0%	1.2	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.90	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	42	201	40	37	7	0%	1.3	14.9%	23.7%	-8.8%	4.8%	6.70	7.50	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	42	201	40	37	7	0%	1.3	14.9%	23.7%	-8.8%	4.8%	6.70	7.50	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	42	201	40	37	7	0%	1.3	19.9%	18.4%	1.5%	3.5%	6.70	6.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIA	17	0	18	76	14	15	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	20.0%	-2.1%	3.2%	6.27	6.27	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	37	0	38	162	32	27	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	16.8%	2.6%	3.2%	5.85	5.71	-0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	16	0	17	72	14	12	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	16.8%	2.6%	3.2%	5.85	5.71	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	70	14	12	2	0%	1.0	19.4%	16.8%	2.6%	3.2%	5.85	5.33	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	145	24	0%	1.1	19.4%	16.8%	2.6%	3.2%	5.85	5.33	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		36	0	47	219	36	50	10	0%	1.3	16.4%	22.7%	-6.3%	4.4%	5.98	7.03	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	939	154	213	42	0%	1.3	16.4%	22.7%	-6.3%	4.4%	5.98	7.03	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Cuthbertson (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.27	17.9%	20.0%	3.2%	—	5.71	19.4%	2.6%	38	-0.56	—	—	—
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	90
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	88
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	87
Jordan Norberto L 2010 · 6.32 FIP	23	SU	6.32	16.0%	22.3%	3.2%	.236	3.89	21.7%	12.3%	52	-2.43	3.89	117	86
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	85
Jeff Wallace L 2000 · 5.61 FIP	24	SU	5.61	14.6%	17.8%	2.7%	.308	4.73	16.9%	0.5%	50	-0.88	2.51	137	85
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	83
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	83
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	83
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	83
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	83
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	81
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	81
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	80
Eric Torres L 2023 · 6.58 FIP	23	SU	6.58	21.7%	19.8%	5.1%	.283	4.18	26.5%	10.4%	56	-2.40	2.81	155	79
John Parrish L 2001 · 5.98 FIP	23	SU	5.98	18.7%	15.0%	4.7%	.258	3.77	19.2%	7.0%	102	-2.21	3.64	272	78
Mike Matthews L 2000 · 5.76 FIP	26	SU	5.76	14.8%	14.8%	3.7%	.361	4.07	17.6%	8.5%	199	-1.69	3.64	239	77
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	77
Johan Simon L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	22	SU	6.17	14.6%	15.4%	4.3%	.341	3.96	19.6%	6.5%	115	-2.21	3.45	178	77
Adrian Almeida L 2018 · 5.49 FIP	23	SU	5.49	19.1%	24.5%	1.6%	.223	5.10	19.9%	-4.6%	59	-0.39	4.27	188	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	18.9%	17.8%	1.23	5.98
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*