Louis Marinaro — OGILVIE

Louis Marinaro P Hickory Crawdads

Age 21 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%23.5%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	36	0	53	215	70	22	1	0%	1.5	24.1%	12.1%	12.0%	0.6%	3.08	2.93	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	36	0	53	215	70	22	1	0%	1.5	24.1%	12.1%	12.0%	0.6%	3.08	2.93	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	TEX	36	0	53	215	70	22	1	0%	1.5	32.6%	10.2%	22.3%	0.5%	3.08	1.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TEX	52	0	54	229	56	22	7	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.6%	14.9%	2.9%	4.30	4.22	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	54	0	56	237	60	21	7	0%	1.0	25.1%	9.0%	16.0%	2.9%	4.17	4.08	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	55	0	58	243	62	21	7	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.7%	16.8%	2.8%	4.06	3.99	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	56	0	58	246	64	21	7	0%	1.0	25.9%	8.6%	17.3%	2.8%	3.98	3.93	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	56	0	58	246	64	21	7	0%	1.0	26.1%	8.5%	17.5%	2.8%	3.94	3.91	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	55	0	57	242	63	21	7	0%	1.0	26.1%	8.6%	17.4%	2.9%	3.95	3.95	+0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	TEX	26	0	27	114	28	11	4	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.6%	14.9%	3.1%	4.42	4.34	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	39	0	41	173	43	16	5	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.0%	16.0%	3.1%	4.29	4.20	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	46	0	48	203	52	18	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.7%	16.8%	3.0%	4.18	4.11	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	49	0	51	215	56	18	7	0%	1.0	25.9%	8.6%	17.3%	3.0%	4.10	4.05	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	50	0	53	224	58	19	7	0%	1.1	26.1%	8.5%	17.5%	3.0%	4.06	4.03	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	50	0	53	224	58	19	7	0%	1.1	26.1%	8.6%	17.4%	3.1%	4.07	4.07	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		260	0	273	1154	296	101	35	0%	1.1	25.6%	8.8%	16.9%	3.1%	4.16	3.73	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	217	74	26	0%	1.1	25.6%	8.8%	16.9%	3.1%	4.16	3.73	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		36	0	53	215	52	26	1	0%	1.5	24.1%	12.1%	12.0%	0.6%	3.08	2.93	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	0	200	816	197	99	5	0%	1.5	24.1%	12.1%	12.0%	0.6%	3.08	2.93	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Louis Marinaro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	23.5%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.09	25.0%	15.9%	168	-0.34	—	—	—
Ronnie Glenn L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	22	SU	3.47	20.9%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	5.00	11.1%	-2.6%	171	+1.53	3.47	212	85
Destin Dotson L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	21	SU	3.90	22.3%	12.2%	2.1%	.288	5.84	23.0%	3.1%	48	+1.94	2.90	113	85
Denny Bentley L 2018 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	84
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	84
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	83
Marlon Perez L 2022 · 3.30 FIP	22	SU	3.30	20.5%	9.0%	1.4%	.250	4.15	22.9%	12.2%	103	+0.85	3.30	145	83
Manuel Medina L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	21	SU	5.09	22.3%	11.2%	4.5%	.319	2.79	24.2%	15.4%	78	-2.30	1.26	157	83
Abdallah Aris L 2017 · 3.63 FIP	20	SU	3.63	22.4%	11.3%	1.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	109	83
Nick Dombkowski L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SU	4.48	21.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.208	4.72	16.6%	7.5%	223	+0.24	3.71	420	83
Andrew Mitchell L 2018 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	21.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.333	2.71	23.8%	15.8%	78	-1.04	2.51	119	82
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	82
Liu Fuenmayor L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	22.2%	10.5%	3.8%	.321	3.07	22.5%	15.5%	21	-1.55	3.07	130	82
Jerry Vasto L 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	21.2%	9.5%	1.4%	.265	3.52	23.3%	12.8%	147	+0.24	2.89	206	82
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	82
Daniel Zamora L 2016 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.82	2.15	310	81
Oddanier Mosqueda L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	20	SU	3.74	22.8%	11.1%	2.1%	.308	4.10	25.7%	14.1%	106	+0.36	3.05	433	81
Garvin Alston L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SU	4.29	19.7%	6.6%	3.7%	.333	4.74	16.4%	2.9%	84	+0.45	4.01	232	81
Connor Curlis L 2018 · 3.49 FIP	21	SU	3.49	19.3%	10.8%	1.2%	.306	6.08	16.6%	4.6%	172	+2.59	3.49	309	80
Ryne Slack L 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	18.8%	9.0%	2.6%	.293	5.00	15.4%	2.5%	142	+0.93	4.07	212	80
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	54	25.3%	9.0%	1.11	4.10
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58