Thomas Conrad — OGILVIE

Thomas Conrad P Wilson Warbirds

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%21.3%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	26	0	56	243	47	36	6	0%	2.1	14.5%	17.3%	-2.8%	2.9%	4.85	5.66	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	26	0	56	243	47	36	6	0%	2.1	14.5%	17.3%	-2.8%	2.9%	4.85	5.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	MIL	25	0	52	225	44	33	5	0%	2.1	19.6%	14.7%	4.9%	2.2%	4.53	4.53	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	MIL	1	0	4	18	3	3	1	0%	4.0	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	5.6%	9.00	6.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	54	0	57	242	53	28	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.5%	10.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.70	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	57	0	60	254	58	26	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.44	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	59	0	62	263	62	26	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.7%	14.0%	2.8%	4.39	4.27	+0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	61	0	64	270	66	25	8	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.3%	15.0%	2.8%	4.25	4.15	+0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	62	0	65	274	67	25	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	2.8%	4.15	4.08	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	62	0	65	274	68	25	8	0%	1.0	24.8%	9.0%	15.9%	2.8%	4.09	4.06	+0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	61	0	64	269	67	24	8	0%	1.0	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	2.9%	4.09	4.10	+0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIL	27	0	28	118	26	14	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.5%	10.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.70	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	42	0	44	186	43	19	5	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.44	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	50	0	53	224	53	22	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.7%	14.0%	2.8%	4.39	4.27	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	54	0	57	241	58	22	7	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.3%	15.0%	2.8%	4.25	4.15	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	56	0	59	249	61	22	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	2.8%	4.15	4.08	+0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	57	0	60	253	63	23	7	0%	1.1	24.8%	9.0%	15.9%	2.8%	4.09	4.06	+0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	58	0	61	258	64	23	7	0%	1.1	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	2.9%	4.09	4.10	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		345	0	362	1529	368	145	43	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	2.8%	4.28	3.83	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	80	24	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	2.8%	4.28	3.83	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		26	0	56	243	35	42	7	0%	2.1	14.5%	17.3%	-2.8%	2.9%	4.85	5.66	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	0	200	873	126	151	25	0%	2.1	14.5%	17.3%	-2.8%	2.9%	4.85	5.66	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Conrad (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	21.3%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.46	22.9%	12.4%	180	-0.48	—	—	—
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	87
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	86
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	86
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	86
Carlos Campos R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	20	SU	4.82	20.4%	10.7%	3.8%	.304	5.85	15.3%	8.1%	19	+1.03	4.82	134	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	86
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	86
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	408	85
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	85
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	85
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	84
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	84
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	84
Reiss Knehr R 2018 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	21.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.267	4.86	18.8%	7.2%	171	+0.57	3.46	398	84
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	83
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	83
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	83
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Kai Wynyard R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	20	SU	4.27	21.1%	9.1%	3.3%	.269	4.12	16.5%	3.9%	138	-0.15	3.32	257	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	59	23.7%	9.9%	1.11	4.37
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93