Alejandro Garza — OGILVIE

Alejandro Garza3B Hill City Howlers

Age 22 R/R A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 92 proj PA

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .281 / .324

PA92

HR1

K%25

BB%7

ISO104

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Hill City Howlers	—	84	72	25	7	1	0	9	12	0	10	1	347	420	472	892	125	397	14	11	384	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	—	84	75	22	6	1	0	6	16	0	10	1	293	346	400	746	107	343	19	7	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	—	84	75	22	6	1	0	6	16	0	10	1	293	346	400	746	107	355	19	7	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Hill City Howlers	—	84	72	25	7	1	0	9	12	0	10	1	347	420	472	892	125	397	14	11	384	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	—	84	78	22	6	1	0	6	16	0	10	1	282	346	385	730	103	343	19	7	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	—	84	78	22	6	1	0	6	16	0	10	1	282	346	385	730	103	343	19	7	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	194	177	40	8	2	2	14	49	1	6	1	223	283	327	610	104	291	25	7	275	72	-6	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	34%	182	166	38	8	1	3	13	45	1	6	1	226	286	335	621	109	292	25	7	279	75	-5	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	46%	293	268	60	12	2	4	21	72	2	10	1	228	289	342	631	114	293	25	7	283	78	-8	+2	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	52%	362	331	76	15	3	6	26	89	2	12	2	229	291	347	639	118	293	25	7	286	80	-9	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	406	370	85	17	3	7	30	99	3	13	2	230	293	351	644	121	293	24	7	288	81	-9	+2	+0	+1	+9	0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	427	389	90	18	3	8	32	105	3	14	2	230	293	351	644	121	292	25	7	289	82	-9	+2	+0	+2	+9	0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	437	398	91	18	3	8	33	108	3	14	2	228	291	346	637	118	291	25	8	286	80	-11	+2	-1	+2	+9	0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	53%	435	397	89	18	3	7	32	109	3	14	2	225	288	340	628	114	289	25	7	282	77	-12	+2	-1	+2	+9	-0.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	52%	431	394	88	18	3	7	32	109	2	13	2	222	284	332	616	110	287	25	7	277	74	-13	+2	-2	+2	+9	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	34%	63	59	13	3	0	1	4	16	0	2	0	226	286	333	619	107	292	25	6	278	75	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	46%	135	123	28	6	1	2	10	33	1	5	1	228	289	340	629	112	293	24	7	283	78	-4	+1	+0	+0	+3	0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	52%	187	170	39	8	1	3	14	46	1	6	1	229	291	345	636	116	293	25	7	286	80	-4	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	220	201	45	9	1	4	16	54	1	7	1	230	293	349	642	119	293	25	7	288	81	-5	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	232	211	48	10	1	4	17	57	2	8	1	230	293	349	642	119	292	25	7	288	82	-5	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	237	215	49	10	1	4	18	59	2	8	1	228	291	345	635	117	291	25	8	285	80	-6	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	53%	231	211	48	10	1	4	17	58	1	7	1	225	288	338	626	113	289	25	7	281	77	-6	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	52%	226	206	45	9	1	3	17	57	1	7	1	222	284	330	614	108	287	25	8	277	74	-7	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1531	1396	315	65	7	25	113	380	9	50	7	226	288	336	624	110	291	25	7	284	79	-39	+7	-2	+5	+33	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	135	28	3	11	48	161	4	21	3	228	290	341	631	113	292	25	7	284	79	-17	+3	-1	+2	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3149	2873	658	134	23	51	231	775	20	109	15	229	291	345	636	116	294	25	7	285	79	-79	+14	-4	+11	+66	0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	137	28	5	11	48	160	4	22	3	231	293	351	644	120	296	25	7	285	79	-17	+3	-1	+2	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#3Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.4	1,622	27	53	228	287	344	+6	+2	1.6	1.5
/162	664	11	22	+2.4	+1.0	0.6	pk7: 2
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alejandro Garza (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	221/281/324	103	291	1	3	25%	7%	72	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kenedy Corona 2022 · A	22	43→42	39→50	52→55	39	208/262/296	88	288	6	20	29%	5%	58	-1.7	210/270/340	130	291	14	23	31%	7%	72	-0.7	201/268/328	126	276	14	27	31%	7%	65	-0.9
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2017 · A	21	44→40	39→50	55	45	212/283/303	91	280	6	19	25%	7%	68	-1.0	207/280/342	135	279	13	18	29%	8%	76	-0.4	195/275/337	142	264	15	19	30%	8%	71	-0.6
✕Adam Engel 2015 · A	23	45→48	40→50	57→60	39	215/267/310	95	294	7	25	28%	5%	63	-1.4	203/260/305	102	292	7	30	31%	6%	59	-1.6	223/282/358	135	299	13	23	29%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Kristopher Negrón 2008 · A	22	43→49	37→45	55	43	204/269/274	70	275	4	18	26%	6%	56	-1.9	226/287/322	96	290	7	20	23%	6%	74	-0.6	231/294/333	102	293	8	23	23%	6%	76	-0.4
✕Samad Taylor 2019 · A	21	39→49	41→50	54→65	45	193/258/302	109	254	8	22	26%	7%	58	-1.7	195/272/314	119	297	11	25	35%	8%	67	-1.1	242/320/377	134	335	14	46	29%	9%	98	+0.7
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	37→47	44→50	52→60	40	191/253/303	112	263	12	21	31%	6%	57	-1.8	231/299/365	134	305	12	39	26%	8%	88	+0.4	232/299/362	129	300	10	41	25%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Tyler Goeddel 2014 · A	21	44→52	41→45	59→55	40	211/262/313	103	297	7	20	30%	6%	61	-1.5	227/284/341	114	305	9	18	27%	7%	76	-0.4	229/290/345	116	300	9	18	25%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Luke Williams 2019 · A	22	41→44	38→45	50→65	42	199/251/269	70	259	6	15	25%	5%	47	-2.5	210/270/306	96	280	7	19	26%	7%	63	-1.3	229/291/325	96	311	8	37	27%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Miguel Hiraldo 2023 · A	22	41→46	43→45	56→55	38	200/251/308	108	302	10	21	36%	6%	57	-1.8	216/263/319	103	337	10	20	37%	5%	63	-1.3	221/269/319	98	346	9	22	37%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Charcer Burks 2017 · A	22	41→48	40	52→50	44	200/267/293	93	278	6	17	29%	7%	59	-1.6	209/281/303	94	291	7	14	28%	8%	68	-1.0	205/279/290	85	284	6	14	28%	8%	62	-1.2
✕Cade Gotta 2015 · A	23	40→50	39→45	54→55	46	193/267/282	90	272	5	16	29%	8%	57	-1.8	217/266/317	100	285	7	21	25%	6%	64	-1.3	240/299/336	96	305	5	36	21%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	40	39→45	53→55	52	192/277/280	88	229	6	14	19%	8%	61	-1.5	221/287/329	108	296	9	10	27%	6%	75	-0.5	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Michael Siani 2021 · A	22	43→45	38→45	54→60	41	208/264/286	78	288	6	21	29%	6%	56	-1.9	201/273/302	101	275	9	28	28%	8%	63	-1.3	211/284/306	95	276	9	33	25%	9%	67	-0.8
✕Jeudy Valdez 2011 · A	22	39→46	41→50	51→55	40	196/242/294	98	265	8	17	29%	5%	49	-2.4	212/250/340	128	281	12	17	29%	4%	63	-1.3	212/249/346	134	278	13	17	28%	3%	62	-1.2
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	39	41→45	51→55	42	190/265/292	102	283	8	14	34%	8%	59	-1.6	204/267/311	107	290	7	12	30%	6%	63	-1.3	179/266/281	102	259	10	19	32%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2024 · A	21	38→44	41→50	52→50	43	182/258/286	104	279	7	9	35%	8%	55	-1.9	220/276/370	150	298	17	10	31%	6%	81	-0.1	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Loidel Chapelli 2024 · A	22	39→36	43→45	56→55	46	196/271/312	116	271	10	18	30%	8%	65	-1.2	196/259/284	88	300	7	17	34%	7%	54	-2.0	176/233/238	63	279	4	20	36%	6%	31	-2.0
✕Lane Adams 2012 · A	22	42→45	39→50	54→60	39	203/256/294	91	297	6	12	33%	6%	55	-2.0	218/268/326	108	293	10	19	28%	6%	67	-1.1	224/277/350	126	304	14	36	30%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Jhonny Santos 2019 · A	22	41	40→45	50	41	203/254/297	94	272	8	14	28%	6%	55	-1.9	206/263/323	117	278	12	13	29%	6%	65	-1.2	190/248/320	130	244	17	9	29%	7%	57	-0.9
✕Mycal Jones 2010 · A	23	39→46	40→45	55	41	193/250/296	103	263	6	14	28%	6%	54	-2.0	206/262/315	109	276	9	15	28%	6%	63	-1.4	220/278/302	82	279	5	24	22%	6%	63	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps