Jhon Rivas

P FCL Blue Jays

Age 19 RHP 5'9" / 155 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	12	17	7.56	4.54	20.3%	12.7%	—	K 13.8% · BB 15.8% · FIP 6.27
2026	18	ROKTOR	8	17	1.62	3.58	18.6%	10.0%	—	K 12.6% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.71
2027PROJ	19	MLBTOR	10	10	4.98	4.98	20.2%	12.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBTOR	10	10	4.80	4.73	21.0%	11.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsHarold Cortijo (age 18) · Yordin Chalas (age 19) · Blake Workman (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%20.2%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP10

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	0	17	79	16	10	2	0%	1.4	13.8%	15.8%	-2.1%	4.2%	7.56	6.27	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	0	17	79	16	10	2	0%	1.4	13.8%	15.8%	-2.1%	4.2%	7.56	6.27	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	0	17	79	16	10	2	0%	1.4	20.3%	12.7%	7.6%	2.5%	7.56	4.54	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	8	0	17	70	13	7	1	0%	2.1	12.6%	12.5%	0.1%	2.0%	1.62	4.71	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	8	0	17	70	13	7	1	0%	2.1	12.6%	12.5%	0.1%	2.0%	1.62	4.71	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	8	0	17	70	13	7	1	0%	2.1	18.6%	10.0%	8.6%	1.4%	1.62	3.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	TOR	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.3%	7.9%	3.0%	4.98	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	TOR	19	0	20	84	18	9	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.2%	9.8%	2.9%	4.80	4.73	-0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	TOR	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.2%	9.8%	2.9%	4.80	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.2%	9.8%	2.9%	4.80	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	102	20	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.2%	9.8%	2.9%	4.80	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		20	0	33	149	20	21	5	0%	1.7	13.2%	14.3%	-1.0%	3.2%	4.59	5.54	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	0	200	894	118	128	29	0%	1.7	13.2%	14.3%	-1.0%	3.2%	4.59	5.54	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhon Rivas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	20.2%	12.3%	3.0%	—	4.73	21.0%	9.8%	20	-0.25	—	—	—
Harold Cortijo R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	18	SU	4.46	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	5.64	13.5%	2.2%	73	+1.18	4.15	179	88
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	87
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	86
David Matoma R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	18	SU	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	1.7%	.259	5.70	15.7%	-5.9%	79	+1.89	3.58	118	86
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	86
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	85
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	85
Kevin Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	18	SU	4.37	17.4%	12.8%	2.0%	.279	4.14	16.7%	7.6%	41	-0.23	2.34	188	85
Jose Diaz R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SU	3.97	17.9%	10.4%	1.9%	.326	5.52	19.2%	1.1%	64	+1.55	3.91	189	85
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	85
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	85
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	85
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	84
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	84
Aneudy Duarte R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.4%	13.5%	2.1%	.320	4.79	17.1%	5.4%	34	+0.53	4.26	102	84
Drew Pestka R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	20	SU	4.26	19.0%	15.1%	1.6%	.298	4.55	18.1%	0.7%	83	+0.29	3.42	100	83
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	83
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	83
Evan Phillips R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	20	SU	3.96	21.4%	13.7%	1.7%	.300	3.85	22.0%	10.7%	177	-0.11	1.52	522	83
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	83