Alonso Carrera — OGILVIE

Alonso Carrera P FCL Rays

Age 21 RHP 5'9" / 180 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%20.1%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	18	0	32	143	30	18	1	0%	1.8	14.3%	15.7%	-1.5%	1.0%	4.73	4.45	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	18	0	32	143	30	18	1	0%	1.8	14.3%	15.7%	-1.5%	1.0%	4.73	4.45	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	18	0	32	143	30	18	1	0%	1.8	21.0%	12.6%	8.4%	0.7%	4.73	3.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	13	0	18	86	18	12	1	0%	1.4	14.2%	17.4%	-3.2%	1.6%	4.42	5.00	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	13	0	18	86	18	12	1	0%	1.4	14.2%	17.4%	-3.2%	1.6%	4.42	5.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	TB	13	0	18	86	18	12	1	0%	1.4	20.9%	14.0%	7.0%	1.2%	4.42	3.74	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TB	29	0	31	129	28	16	4	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.3%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.80	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	TB	14	0	15	63	14	8	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.3%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	14	8	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.3%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.42	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	106	27	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.3%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		31	0	51	229	33	38	3	0%	1.6	14.3%	16.4%	-2.1%	1.3%	4.62	4.66	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	0	200	904	129	148	11	0%	1.6	14.3%	16.4%	-2.1%	1.3%	4.62	4.66	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alonso Carrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	20.1%	14.1%	2.9%	—	4.80	21.4%	9.1%	31	-0.38	—	—	—
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	90
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	90
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	89
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	89
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	89
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	88
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	88
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	88
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	88
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	88
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	88
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	87
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	523	87
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	474	87
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	86
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	86
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	86
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	86
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	86