Alonso Carrera
P
FCL Rays
Age 21
RHP
5'9" / 180 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 19 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%22.6%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP19
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 18 | 0 | 32 | 143 | 30 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 14.3% | 15.7% | -1.5% | 1.1% | 4.73 | 4.48 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 18 | 0 | 32 | 143 | 30 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.0% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 4.73 | 3.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 11 | 0 | 16 | 73 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.9% | 13.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 4.41 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TB | 18 | 0 | 19 | 81 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | TB | — | — | 36 | 154 | 34 | 16 | 3 | — | — | 22.3% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 2.2% | 4.41 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TB | 19 | 0 | 20 | 85 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TB | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 3.84 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 0 | 49 | 216 | 31 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 14.5% | 15.0% | -0.6% | 1.4% | 4.62 | 4.53 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 0 | 200 | 888 | 129 | 134 | 12 | 0% | 1.7 | 14.5% | 15.0% | -0.6% | 1.4% | 4.62 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alonso Carrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.22 | 23.6% | 14.5% | 20 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 90 |
| Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 89 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 89 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 89 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 3.00 | 318 | 89 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 89 |
| Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 88 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.65 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.15 | 3.00 | 144 | 87 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.65 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.9% | .275 | 4.67 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.02 | 4.65 | 140 | 87 |
| David Garner R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 87 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 87 |
| Collin Kober R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.39 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .268 | 3.04 | 24.0% | 17.9% | 128 | -0.35 | 2.40 | 294 | 86 |
| Caleb Freeman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.17 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.19 | 3.98 | 222 | 86 |
| Mason Fox R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 7.31 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.72 | 3.59 | 112 | 86 |
| Tyler Bray R 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 86 |
| Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 86 |
| Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 86 |
| Luke Bell R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 86 |
| Jeff Bain R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .339 | 4.13 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 274 | +0.19 | 3.37 | 475 | 85 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.92 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.98 | 3.94 | 122 | 85 |