Blake Morgan

P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 24 LHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#324ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX3 levels	20	20	105	3.77	3.44	23.2%	6.1%	—	K 17.0% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.58
2027PROJ	24	MLBTB	—	—	0	4.55	4.55	17.7%	6.5%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTB	7	7	41	4.37	4.30	19.9%	6.5%	0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBTB	11	11	67	4.25	4.18	21.3%	6.6%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.8M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJuan Pablo Oramas (age 25) · Luke Heimlich (age 23) · Adam Scott (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 120

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%17.7%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$38M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.6M
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	105	426	99	26	12	100%	5.2	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	3.7%	3.77	4.58	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	105	426	99	26	12	100%	5.2	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	3.7%	3.77	4.58	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	105	426	99	26	12	100%	5.2	23.2%	6.1%	17.1%	2.8%	3.77	3.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.7%	6.5%	11.2%	3.2%	4.55	4.55	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	96	407	81	26	13	100%	6.0	19.9%	6.5%	13.4%	3.1%	4.42	4.35	+1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	101	427	91	28	13	100%	5.9	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	3.1%	4.30	4.23	+1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	97	408	87	27	13	100%	6.0	21.3%	6.7%	14.6%	3.2%	4.28	4.27	+1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	92	388	82	27	13	100%	6.1	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	3.3%	4.32	4.35	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	85	361	76	26	12	100%	6.1	21.0%	7.1%	13.9%	3.4%	4.42	4.48	+0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	77	327	67	24	12	100%	6.0	20.6%	7.4%	13.2%	3.6%	4.56	4.66	+0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	69	291	59	22	11	100%	6.3	20.2%	7.7%	12.5%	3.8%	4.74	4.86	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	60	255	50	21	10	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.1%	11.6%	4.1%	4.95	5.09	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	41	173	34	11	5	100%	5.9	19.9%	6.5%	13.4%	3.1%	4.37	4.30	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	67	283	60	19	9	100%	6.1	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	3.0%	4.25	4.18	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	75	317	67	21	10	100%	6.2	21.3%	6.7%	14.6%	3.1%	4.23	4.22	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	77	325	69	22	10	100%	5.9	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	3.2%	4.27	4.30	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	75	317	66	22	11	100%	6.2	21.0%	7.1%	13.9%	3.3%	4.37	4.43	+0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	70	296	61	22	10	100%	5.8	20.6%	7.4%	13.2%	3.5%	4.51	4.61	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	63	266	54	21	10	100%	6.3	20.2%	7.7%	12.5%	3.7%	4.68	4.80	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	56	236	47	19	9	100%	6.2	19.8%	8.1%	11.6%	4.0%	4.89	5.03	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	87	523	2209	458	157	74	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.1%	13.6%	3.4%	4.43	4.09	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	175	60	28	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.1%	13.6%	3.4%	4.43	4.09	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		20	20	105	426	73	31	16	100%	5.2	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	3.7%	3.77	4.58	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	38	200	811	138	59	30	100%	5.2	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	3.7%	3.77	4.58	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 62 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.65 (+1.24)K% 26.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.12%	—	×0.740	19.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×1.180	6.74%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.24%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 21 IPFIP 4.46 → 5.37 (+0.91)K% 16.7% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.770	12.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.46 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Rays · 21 IPFIP 2.45 → 3.47 (+1.01)K% 22.4% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.35%	—	×0.680	15.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.71%	—	×1.250	5.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.65%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.45 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Morgan (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.28	20.8%	14.3%	294	-0.27	—	—	—
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	84
Luke Heimlich L 2019 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	18.2%	7.6%	3.0%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	118	84
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	83
Joe Saunders L 2006 · 3.94 FIP	25	SP	3.94	16.9%	9.3%	2.0%	.300	4.48	13.1%	6.1%	491	+0.54	3.86	1,378	82
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	82
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	82
Nick Bierbrodt L 2001 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	18.8%	9.8%	4.4%	.318	6.19	12.8%	-1.6%	60	+1.04	5.15	145	82
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	82
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	81
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	81
Adalberto Mejía L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	18.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.313	3.67	19.5%	9.3%	117	-0.29	3.30	427	81
Sean West L 2009 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	15.0%	9.4%	2.4%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	103	81
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	81
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	81
Aaron Leasher L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	17.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.301	4.15	19.8%	9.5%	152	-0.16	4.04	477	81
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	80
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	80
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	80
Reid Love L 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	13.8%	6.8%	2.7%	.293	3.74	15.2%	9.0%	140	-0.55	3.66	280	79
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	85	20.4%	7.0%	1.31	4.47
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Rich Bordi ('80-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.9	74	20.8%*	7.3%*	1.22*	4.55*
Tom Walker ('72-'77, 1 WAR*)	2.1	83	20.9%*	7.5%*	1.28*	4.32*
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43