Caleb Leys

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	ADET	20	16	63	5.14	4.35	19.9%	13.4%	—	K 14.7% · BB 15.8% · FIP 5.32
2027PROJ	24	MLBDET	12	12	67	5.67	5.67	15.8%	15.1%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBDET	5	5	29	5.38	5.28	17.8%	13.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBDET	8	8	45	5.21	5.14	18.9%	12.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsSeth Lonsway (age 24) · Dante Biasi (age 24) · Erik Rivera (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 141

ERA5.67

FIP5.67

K%15.8%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%0.8%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—50

CTRL—45

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	20	16	63	292	58	39	6	80%	3.1	14.7%	15.8%	-1.1%	2.7%	5.14	5.32	—
2026	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	20	16	63	292	58	39	6	80%	3.1	14.7%	15.8%	-1.1%	2.7%	5.14	5.32	—
2026	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	20	16	63	292	58	39	6	80%	3.1	19.9%	13.4%	6.5%	2.1%	5.14	4.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	DET	12	12	67	283	45	43	8	100%	5.6	15.8%	15.1%	0.8%	3.0%	5.67	5.67	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	68	287	51	38	8	100%	5.7	17.8%	13.3%	4.5%	2.9%	5.38	5.28	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	68	287	54	37	8	100%	6.2	18.9%	12.9%	6.0%	2.9%	5.21	5.14	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	67	283	54	36	8	100%	6.1	19.1%	12.8%	6.3%	3.0%	5.15	5.14	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	65	274	52	35	9	100%	5.9	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	3.1%	5.17	5.20	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	29	122	22	16	4	100%	5.8	17.8%	13.3%	4.5%	2.9%	5.38	5.28	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	45	190	36	25	6	100%	5.6	18.9%	12.9%	6.0%	2.9%	5.21	5.14	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	52	220	42	28	7	100%	5.8	19.1%	12.8%	6.3%	3.0%	5.15	5.14	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	55	232	44	30	7	100%	6.1	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	3.1%	5.17	5.20	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	181	762	144	99	23	100%	6.0	18.8%	12.9%	5.9%	3.0%	5.21	4.80	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	160	110	25	100%	6.0	18.8%	12.9%	5.9%	3.0%	5.21	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		20	16	63	292	43	46	8	80%	3.1	14.7%	15.8%	-1.1%	2.7%	5.14	5.32	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	51	200	927	136	146	25	80%	3.2	14.7%	15.8%	-1.1%	2.7%	5.14	5.32	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Leys (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	15.8%	15.1%	3.0%	—	5.19	18.6%	5.6%	203	-0.48	—	—	—
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.5%	4.7%	321	-1.03	3.35	506	82
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	82
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	81
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	78
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	76
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	76
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	73
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	72
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	72
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	72
Wandy Peralta L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	24	SP-	4.50	12.4%	12.6%	1.6%	.324	3.83	17.3%	7.3%	200	-0.67	2.69	732	72
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	72
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	72
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	72
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	71
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	71
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	71
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	70
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	70
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	18.1%	13.4%	1.16	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*