Carlos Falcon

P DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 19 RHP 5'10" / 188 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	2	2	11.57	11.24	0.0%	16.7%	—	K 0.0% · BB 16.7% · FIP 9.79
2026	18	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	10	22	3.63	2.97	32.0%	11.3%	—	K 21.7% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.64
2027PROJ	19	MLBBOS	12	13	4.78	4.78	22.9%	12.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBBOS	10	10	4.63	4.55	23.4%	11.3%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJustin Meis (age 21) · Harold Cortijo (age 18) · Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%22.9%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP13

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	2	0	2	12	0	2	1	0%	1.2	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	8.3%	11.57	9.79	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	2	0	2	12	0	2	1	0%	1.2	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	8.3%	11.57	9.79	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	2	0	2	12	0	2	1	0%	1.2	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	8.3%	11.57	11.24	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	10	0	22	97	31	11	2	0%	2.2	21.7%	14.2%	7.6%	2.9%	3.63	4.64	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	10	0	22	97	31	11	2	0%	2.2	21.7%	14.2%	7.6%	2.9%	3.63	4.64	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	10	0	22	97	31	11	2	0%	2.2	32.0%	11.3%	20.6%	2.1%	3.63	2.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	BOS	12	0	13	55	13	7	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.78	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	BOS	20	0	21	89	21	10	3	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.55	0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	BOS	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	44	10	5	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.17	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	96	19	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		12	0	25	109	21	16	4	0%	2.1	19.3%	14.4%	4.9%	3.5%	4.38	5.21	0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	0	200	884	171	128	31	0%	2.1	19.3%	14.4%	4.9%	3.5%	4.38	5.21	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Falcon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	22.9%	12.5%	3.0%	—	4.55	23.4%	12.0%	21	-0.23	—	—	—
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	87
Harold Cortijo R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	18	SU	4.46	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	5.64	13.5%	2.2%	73	+1.18	4.15	179	86
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	84
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	84
Jesus Gamez R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	21	SU	3.81	25.4%	14.0%	2.0%	.321	4.28	27.2%	2.8%	77	+0.47	3.42	105	83
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	83
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	83
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	82
David Matoma R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	18	SU	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	1.7%	.259	5.70	15.7%	-5.9%	79	+1.89	3.58	118	82
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	82
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	82
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	82
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	82
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	82
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	82
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	82
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	81
Yaqui Rivera R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	19	SU	3.67	21.0%	12.4%	1.4%	.371	3.95	22.5%	6.4%	138	+0.28	3.67	292	81
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	81
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	81