Leonel Murrieta — OGILVIE

Leonel Murrieta P DSL Astros Orange

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152143vR 134

ERA5.95

FIP5.95

K%10.0%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%-3.5%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL4040

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	12	8	48	194	28	17	4	67%	4.0	9.8%	11.0%	-1.1%	1.5%	2.79	4.46	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	12	8	48	194	28	17	4	67%	4.0	14.4%	8.8%	5.7%	2.1%	2.79	4.07	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	9	8	31	138	21	16	0	89%	3.4	10.3%	14.5%	-4.1%	0.0%	6.10	4.06	—
2026	19	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	9	8	31	138	21	16	0	89%	3.4	15.2%	11.6%	3.6%	0.0%	6.10	3.28	—
ROS	19	MLB	—	2	2	9	39	4	5	1	100%	4.7	10.0%	13.5%	-3.5%	2.9%	5.95	5.95	-0.1
2026 TOT	19	MLB	—	—	—	40	177	25	21	1	—	—	14.1%	12.0%	2.0%	0.6%	6.06	4.50	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	—	10	10	46	193	25	25	6	100%	4.6	12.9%	12.7%	0.2%	2.9%	5.66	5.57	-0.3
2028	21	MLB	—	10	10	48	203	30	25	6	100%	4.8	14.9%	12.2%	2.7%	2.8%	5.42	5.32	-0.2
2029	22	MLB	—	10	10	50	213	36	25	6	100%	5.0	16.7%	11.7%	5.0%	2.8%	5.19	5.07	-0.1
2030	23	MLB	—	10	10	52	221	39	25	6	100%	5.2	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	2.7%	5.01	4.91	-0.0
2031	24	MLB	—	10	10	54	226	42	25	6	100%	5.4	18.4%	11.1%	7.3%	2.7%	4.89	4.81	+0.1
2032	25	MLB	—	9	9	54	229	43	25	6	100%	6.0	18.8%	10.9%	7.8%	2.7%	4.81	4.75	+0.1
2033	26	MLB	—	9	9	54	229	43	25	6	100%	6.0	19.0%	10.9%	8.1%	2.7%	4.76	4.73	+0.1
2034	27	MLB	—	9	9	54	226	43	25	6	100%	5.9	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	2.7%	4.77	4.77	+0.1
2027	20	MLB	—	5	5	22	93	12	12	3	100%	4.4	12.9%	12.7%	0.2%	2.9%	5.66	5.57	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	—	7	7	35	148	22	18	4	100%	5.0	14.9%	12.2%	2.7%	2.8%	5.42	5.32	-0.2
2029	22	MLB	—	8	8	43	182	30	21	5	100%	5.4	16.7%	11.7%	5.0%	2.8%	5.19	5.07	-0.1
2030	23	MLB	—	9	9	47	198	35	22	5	100%	5.2	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	2.7%	5.01	4.91	-0.0
2031	24	MLB	—	9	9	49	207	38	23	6	100%	5.4	18.4%	11.1%	7.3%	2.7%	4.89	4.81	+0.1
2032	25	MLB	—	9	9	51	215	40	24	6	100%	5.7	18.8%	10.9%	7.8%	2.7%	4.81	4.75	+0.1
2033	26	MLB	—	9	9	52	220	42	24	6	100%	5.8	19.0%	10.9%	8.1%	2.7%	4.76	4.73	+0.1
2034	27	MLB	—	8	8	51	215	41	24	6	100%	6.4	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	2.7%	4.77	4.77	+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			64	64	349	1476	260	167	40	100%	5.5	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	2.7%	5.00	4.55	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—			36	36	200	844	149	96	23	100%	5.5	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	2.7%	5.00	4.55	+0.8
Career	—			21	16	79	332	33	41	3	76%	3.8	10.0%	12.4%	-2.4%	0.9%	4.08	4.29	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—			53	40	200	837	84	104	7	76%	3.8	10.0%	12.4%	-2.4%	0.9%	4.08	4.29	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leonel Murrieta (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.95	10.0%	13.5%	2.9%	—	5.31	14.9%	2.7%	144	-0.64	—	—	—
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.96	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.18	3.61	204	93
Ramon Santos R 2015 · 6.07 FIP	20	SP	6.07	7.2%	14.3%	3.2%	.352	4.56	13.3%	3.4%	191	-1.51	3.84	355	87
Luis De Jesus R 2018 · 6.00 FIP	19	SP-	6.00	11.9%	15.6%	3.5%	.274	6.24	12.9%	-8.4%	21	+0.24	4.19	108	86
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.84	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.33	3.39	129	85
Yenrri Rojas R 2023 · 5.23 FIP	19	SP-	5.23	10.2%	12.7%	2.5%	.369	4.20	14.1%	3.4%	214	-1.03	3.25	298	84
Josh Swales R 2022 · 5.43 FIP	20	SP-	5.43	11.8%	14.6%	2.7%	.356	5.63	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.20	5.43	129	84
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	83
Gerson Calzadilla R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.6%	11.6%	2.6%	.287	3.43	17.0%	8.3%	37	-1.53	3.43	130	83
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.76 FIP	19	SP	5.76	13.4%	13.3%	3.8%	.297	3.63	19.2%	5.8%	137	-2.13	2.89	167	83
Eybersson Polanco R 2023 · 5.58 FIP	19	SP	5.58	10.5%	13.1%	3.1%	.320	3.90	18.8%	7.1%	130	-1.68	3.01	213	83
Daury Cabrera R 2019 · 5.19 FIP	18	SP-	5.19	10.4%	10.6%	3.0%	.286	5.12	12.2%	-0.2%	95	-0.07	2.86	191	82
Luis Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	12.5%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	111	82
Miguel Toscano R 2023 · 5.96 FIP	17	SP	5.96	10.6%	10.4%	4.4%	.288	4.52	12.1%	0.2%	123	-1.44	3.59	164	82
Alvaro Galindo R 2017 · 5.31 FIP	19	SP-	5.31	9.2%	12.3%	2.6%	.312	7.56	12.5%	-5.2%	27	+2.25	3.54	174	82
Luis Arestigueta R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	17	SP-	4.82	11.8%	14.8%	1.5%	.238	4.58	14.8%	-0.5%	151	-0.24	4.25	184	82
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.98	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.71	3.63	164	81
Eliezer Pena R 2023 · 6.32 FIP	17	SP	6.32	10.5%	18.5%	3.2%	.265	4.50	18.1%	1.2%	114	-1.82	3.25	150	81
Gary Gill Hill R 2023 · 5.07 FIP	18	SP	5.07	14.1%	12.2%	2.9%	.356	4.85	15.8%	9.4%	349	-0.22	4.66	386	81
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	81
Anderson Munoz R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SP-	5.90	14.4%	18.2%	3.1%	.306	4.39	25.7%	13.3%	73	-1.51	4.15	109	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 136 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	49	16.8%	11.6%	1.07	5.10
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41