Leonel Murrieta — OGILVIE

Leonel Murrieta P DSL Astros Orange

+0.0 WAR

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2032

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.8%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%12.4%

IP41

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2032

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	12	8	48	194	28	17	4	9.8%	11.0%	1.6%	2.79	4.51	+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	—	41	—	41	174	38	16	5	21.8%	9.4%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	20	MLB	—	43	—	43	182	41	16	5	22.4%	9.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.31	+0.3
2028	21	MLB	—	45	—	45	192	44	17	5	22.9%	8.8%	2.8%	4.26	4.20	+0.4
2029	22	MLB	—	48	—	48	201	48	17	6	23.8%	8.3%	2.8%	4.14	4.04	+0.5
2030	23	MLB	—	50	—	50	209	51	17	6	24.5%	8.0%	2.7%	4.02	3.93	+0.6
2031	24	MLB	—	51	—	51	214	54	17	6	25.1%	7.8%	2.7%	3.91	3.84	+0.6
2032	25	MLB	—	51	—	51	217	55	17	6	25.4%	7.7%	2.7%	3.83	3.78	+0.7
2033	26	MLB	—	51	—	51	217	56	17	6	25.6%	7.6%	2.7%	3.79	3.76	+0.7
2034	27	MLB	—	51	—	51	215	55	16	6	25.7%	7.7%	2.7%	3.78	3.77	+0.7
2035	28	MLB	—	50	—	50	212	54	16	6	25.6%	7.7%	2.7%	3.79	3.79	+0.7
2036	29	MLB	—	49	—	49	207	53	16	6	25.5%	7.8%	2.8%	3.82	3.84	+0.6
2037	30	MLB	—	48	—	48	201	51	16	6	25.3%	7.9%	2.8%	3.87	3.90	+0.6
2038	31	MLB	—	46	—	46	193	48	15	6	25.1%	8.0%	2.9%	3.93	3.98	+0.5
2039	32	MLB	—	44	—	44	186	46	15	6	24.8%	8.2%	3.0%	4.01	4.06	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			12	8	48	194	19	21	3	9.8%	11.0%	1.6%	2.79	4.51	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—			50	33	200	803	79	87	12	9.8%	11.0%	1.6%	2.79	4.51	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leonel Murrieta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	21.8%	9.4%	2.9%	—	4.18	23.1%	14.4%	136	-0.25	—	—	—
Brandon Komar R 2027 · 4.74 FIP	20	SU	4.74	17.7%	11.6%	3.0%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.19	3.03	538	93
Yordin Chalas R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	19	SU	4.60	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.94	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.66	3.68	140	93
Luis Victorino R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	19	SU	4.27	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.96	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.69	4.27	118	93
Eccel Correa R 2027 · 4.34 FIP	20	SU	4.34	19.4%	11.9%	2.5%	.316	4.01	14.2%	3.6%	122	-0.33	3.99	157	93
Reibyn Corona R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	19	SU	4.93	17.0%	13.1%	2.9%	.290	5.58	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.65	4.46	190	92
Alimber Santa R 2025 · 4.85 FIP	18	SU	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.09	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.24	3.38	216	91
Alec Kisena R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	19	SU	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	90
Randry De Leon R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	19	SU	4.63	18.0%	11.5%	2.9%	.284	4.37	22.2%	-2.6%	32	-0.26	4.37	105	90
Kevin Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.37 FIP	18	SU	4.37	17.4%	12.8%	2.0%	.279	4.12	16.7%	7.6%	41	-0.25	2.34	188	90
Eddy Yean R 2025 · 4.56 FIP	18	SU	4.56	16.8%	10.3%	2.9%	.284	4.76	17.7%	3.4%	120	+0.20	3.83	393	90
Luis Aguilar R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	19	SU	4.49	17.6%	10.3%	2.9%	.356	4.25	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.24	3.51	146	89
Joel Garcia R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.91	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.35	3.11	104	89
Andinson Ferrer R 2026 · 4.68 FIP	19	SU	4.68	17.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.287	4.64	21.7%	2.1%	34	-0.04	4.05	101	89
Tyler Gray R 2028 · 4.49 FIP	21	SU	4.49	18.2%	11.7%	2.6%	.333	4.39	11.9%	3.6%	72	-0.10	4.39	119	89
Carlos Jimenez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	19	SU	4.16	20.6%	12.9%	2.1%	.274	5.22	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.06	4.07	257	89
Audry Lugo R 2027 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.31	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.26	4.05	113	89
Austin Mason R 2028 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	89
Jharold Clemente R 2027 · 5.08 FIP	20	SU	5.08	17.5%	13.6%	3.1%	.258	5.28	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.20	3.92	116	89
Jose Diaz R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	19	SU	3.97	17.9%	10.4%	1.9%	.326	5.60	19.2%	1.1%	64	+1.63	3.93	189	89
Julio Goff R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	19	SU	4.80	16.1%	11.9%	2.8%	.364	4.72	16.4%	5.9%	207	-0.08	4.47	251	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1M	+0.7	$4M	+$3M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.7	$4M	+$3M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$14M	+$10M