Leonel Murrieta — OGILVIE

Leonel Murrieta P DSL Astros Orange

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.96

FIP5.96

K%10.0%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%-3.5%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL4040

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	8	48	194	28	17	4	67%	4.0	9.8%	11.0%	-1.1%	1.9%	2.79	4.72	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	8	48	194	28	17	4	67%	4.0	9.8%	11.0%	-1.1%	1.9%	2.79	4.72	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	12	8	48	194	28	17	4	67%	4.0	14.4%	8.8%	5.7%	2.1%	2.79	4.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	9	40	175	29	17	0	75%	3.3	11.3%	12.1%	-0.9%	0.0%	5.17	3.69	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	9	40	175	29	17	0	75%	3.3	11.3%	12.1%	-0.9%	0.0%	5.17	3.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	12	9	40	175	29	17	0	75%	3.3	16.6%	9.7%	6.9%	0.0%	5.17	2.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	—	9	9	46	193	25	25	6	100%	5.1	12.9%	12.7%	0.2%	2.9%	5.67	5.58	-0.3
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	9	9	48	203	30	25	6	100%	5.3	14.9%	12.2%	2.7%	2.8%	5.43	5.33	-0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	—	10	10	50	213	36	25	6	100%	5.0	16.7%	11.7%	5.0%	2.8%	5.20	5.08	-0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	—	10	10	52	221	39	25	6	100%	5.2	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	2.7%	5.02	4.92	-0.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	—	10	10	54	226	42	25	6	100%	5.4	18.4%	11.1%	7.3%	2.7%	4.90	4.82	+0.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	—	9	9	54	229	43	25	6	100%	6.0	18.8%	10.9%	7.8%	2.7%	4.82	4.76	+0.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	—	9	9	54	229	43	25	6	100%	6.0	19.0%	10.9%	8.1%	2.7%	4.77	4.74	+0.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	—	9	9	54	226	43	25	6	100%	5.9	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.78	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	—	4	4	22	93	12	12	3	100%	5.5	12.9%	12.7%	0.2%	2.9%	5.67	5.58	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	7	7	35	148	22	18	4	100%	5.0	14.9%	12.2%	2.7%	2.8%	5.43	5.33	-0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	—	8	8	43	182	30	21	5	100%	5.4	16.7%	11.7%	5.0%	2.8%	5.20	5.08	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	—	9	9	47	198	35	22	5	100%	5.2	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	2.7%	5.02	4.92	-0.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	—	9	9	49	207	38	23	6	100%	5.4	18.4%	11.1%	7.3%	2.7%	4.90	4.82	+0.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	—	9	9	51	215	40	24	6	100%	5.7	18.8%	10.9%	7.8%	2.7%	4.82	4.76	+0.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	—	9	9	52	220	42	24	6	100%	5.8	19.0%	10.9%	8.1%	2.7%	4.77	4.74	+0.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	—	8	8	51	215	41	24	6	100%	6.4	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.78	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	349	1476	260	167	41	100%	5.5	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	2.8%	5.01	4.56	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	149	96	23	100%	5.5	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	2.8%	5.01	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		24	17	88	369	39	42	4	71%	3.7	10.5%	11.5%	-1.0%	1.0%	3.87	4.23	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	38	200	835	88	96	8	71%	3.7	10.5%	11.5%	-1.0%	1.0%	3.87	4.23	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leonel Murrieta (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.96	10.0%	13.5%	2.9%	—	5.32	14.9%	2.7%	144	-0.64	—	—	—
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	91
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	86
Luis De Jesus R 2018 · 6.00 FIP	19	SP-	6.00	11.9%	15.6%	3.5%	.274	6.24	12.9%	-8.4%	21	+0.24	4.19	108	86
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	85
Ramon Santos R 2015 · 6.07 FIP	20	SP	6.07	7.2%	14.3%	3.2%	.352	4.52	13.3%	3.4%	191	-1.55	3.74	355	85
Josh Swales R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	11.8%	14.6%	2.9%	.356	5.64	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.13	5.51	129	84
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	84
Daury Cabrera R 2019 · 5.19 FIP	18	SP-	5.19	10.4%	10.6%	3.0%	.286	5.13	12.2%	-0.2%	95	-0.06	2.86	191	84
Yenrri Rojas R 2023 · 5.23 FIP	19	SP-	5.23	10.2%	12.7%	2.5%	.369	4.22	14.0%	3.3%	230	-1.01	3.27	313	83
Alvaro Galindo R 2017 · 5.31 FIP	19	SP-	5.31	9.2%	12.3%	2.6%	.312	7.56	12.5%	-5.2%	27	+2.25	3.54	174	83
Jesus Lopez R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	18	SP-	5.20	7.5%	14.5%	1.6%	.347	4.78	13.0%	2.1%	80	-0.42	4.48	113	83
Gerson Calzadilla R 2022 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	12.6%	11.6%	3.0%	.287	3.36	17.0%	8.3%	37	-1.78	3.36	130	82
Miguel Toscano R 2023 · 5.80 FIP	17	SP	5.80	10.6%	10.4%	4.2%	.288	4.40	11.9%	0.7%	142	-1.40	3.58	183	82
Xavier Javier R 2017 · 6.80 FIP	19	SP-	6.80	6.7%	23.8%	2.3%	.289	5.53	11.0%	-7.1%	65	-1.27	4.47	188	82
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	82
Elvis Peguero R 2016 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	12.0%	13.8%	1.7%	.275	5.72	9.2%	-3.0%	68	+0.94	3.38	373	82
Maiker Manuel R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	19	SP-	5.12	12.3%	15.2%	2.1%	.329	4.59	15.2%	6.7%	101	-0.53	4.56	148	81
Sergio Sanchez R 2019 · 6.22 FIP	18	SP-	6.22	8.2%	11.9%	4.2%	.384	4.28	18.6%	2.5%	94	-1.94	3.64	234	81
Harold Chirino R 2017 · 6.05 FIP	19	SP-	6.05	13.2%	16.0%	3.7%	.327	3.11	19.0%	6.2%	34	-2.94	3.11	321	81
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	49	16.8%	11.6%	1.07	5.11
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41