Luis Rodriguez
P
DSL NYY Yankees
+0.2
WAR
Age 21
LHP
5'10" / 139 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.5 · 2031
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.3%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2031
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | 19 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 41 | 15 | 2 | 16.6% | 11.2% | 1.5% | 4.99 | 3.91 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | NYY | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | NYY | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 41 | 13 | 5 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 41 | 13 | 5 | 25.4% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 41 | 13 | 5 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 28 | 19 | 2 | 16.6% | 11.2% | 1.5% | 4.99 | 3.91 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 141 | 96 | 10 | 16.6% | 11.2% | 1.5% | 4.99 | 3.91 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.07 | 24.3% | 15.8% | 110 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.81 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .250 | 4.70 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.89 | 3.81 | 255 | 87 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.97 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .347 | 4.00 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.03 | 3.74 | 572 | 87 |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 5.04 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.57 | 3.47 | 212 | 86 |
| Carlos Peña L 2025 · 3.17 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.17 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 1.4% | .301 | 3.97 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 145 | +0.80 | 3.17 | 520 | 86 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.70 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.05 | 2.51 | 119 | 85 |
| Denny Bentley L 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 85 |
| Marlon Perez L 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.31 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .250 | 4.12 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 103 | +0.81 | 3.31 | 145 | 85 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.42 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .208 | 4.74 | 16.8% | 7.4% | 223 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 331 | 85 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.88 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 4.33 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 191 | +0.45 | 3.86 | 327 | 85 |
| Austin Warner L 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.02 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 284 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 491 | 85 |
| Garvin Alston L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.29 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 2.9% | 84 | +0.43 | 4.08 | 232 | 84 |
| Destin Dotson L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .288 | 5.76 | 23.0% | 3.1% | 48 | +1.87 | 2.90 | 113 | 84 |
| Hogan Harris L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 84 |
| Manuel Medina L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 4.4% | .319 | 2.81 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 78 | -2.23 | 1.26 | 157 | 84 |
| Ronny Agustin L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.70 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.91 | 20.2% | 3.5% | 81 | +0.21 | 3.11 | 158 | 84 |
| Dalton Lehnen L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.95 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .398 | 4.47 | 15.8% | 2.9% | 189 | +0.52 | 3.95 | 222 | 83 |
| Tommy Sommer L 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.58 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 4.2% | .196 | 5.35 | 18.6% | 6.1% | 205 | +0.77 | 4.26 | 230 | 82 |
| Riley Frey L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.99 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 3.4% | .417 | 4.33 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 151 | +0.34 | 3.91 | 169 | 82 |
| Jeff Singer L 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.21 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 1.0% | .263 | 3.63 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 174 | +0.42 | 2.91 | 292 | 82 |
| Abdallah Aris L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 109 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $8M | +$4M | ||