Alan Carpinteiro

Alan Carpinteiro P ACL Mariners

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 163 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%19.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	5	37	157	33	16	1	45%	3.4	14.3%	12.7%	1.6%	1.0%	2.17	4.03	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	5	37	157	33	16	1	45%	3.4	14.3%	12.7%	1.6%	1.0%	2.17	4.03	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	11	5	37	157	33	16	1	45%	3.4	21.0%	10.2%	10.8%	0.6%	2.17	2.97	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	19	0	21	113	23	29	2	0%	1.1	13.8%	32.1%	-18.2%	2.5%	8.02	7.35	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	19	0	21	113	23	29	2	0%	1.1	13.8%	32.1%	-18.2%	2.5%	8.02	7.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	SEA	19	0	21	113	23	29	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	25.7%	-5.3%	1.8%	8.02	5.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SEA	34	0	35	149	31	16	4	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	2.9%	4.74	4.67	-0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	SEA	16	0	17	72	15	8	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	2.9%	4.74	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	17	73	15	8	2	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	2.9%	4.74	4.29	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	92	23	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	2.9%	4.74	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		30	5	59	270	38	56	4	17%	2.0	14.1%	20.8%	-6.7%	1.6%	4.30	5.42	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	17	200	920	130	192	15	17%	2.0	14.1%	20.8%	-6.7%	1.6%	4.30	5.42	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alan Carpinteiro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	19.9%	11.9%	2.9%	—	4.67	20.8%	9.9%	35	-0.24	—	—	—
Kevin Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	18	SU	4.37	17.4%	12.8%	2.0%	.279	4.14	16.7%	7.6%	41	-0.23	2.34	188	87
Harold Cortijo R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	18	SU	4.46	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	5.64	13.5%	2.2%	73	+1.18	4.15	179	87
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	86
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	85
Raimon Gomez R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	19	SW	4.90	17.3%	13.6%	2.8%	.265	3.28	19.5%	8.0%	48	-1.62	3.28	103	85
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	85
Kevin Tejada R 2023 · 3.97 FIP	18	SU	3.97	17.4%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	5.53	13.1%	2.7%	78	+1.56	3.97	108	85
Jose Diaz R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SU	3.97	17.9%	10.4%	1.9%	.326	5.52	19.2%	1.1%	64	+1.55	3.91	189	85
Leury Tejada R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	18	SW	4.03	16.5%	10.1%	1.9%	.286	5.06	17.4%	6.2%	39	+1.03	4.03	183	84
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	84
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	83
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	83
Osiris German R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.6%	8.7%	3.3%	.346	3.15	26.3%	15.5%	59	-1.11	3.11	187	83
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	83
Miguel Castro R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	20	SU	4.61	19.1%	10.9%	3.2%	.290	4.55	14.5%	4.9%	207	-0.06	3.34	554	83
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	83
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	83
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	83
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	82
Austin Mason R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	20.4%	11.3%	1.11	4.81
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19