Michael Hilker

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	AMIN	1	2	0.00	0.10	50.0%	0.0%	—	K 50.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP -1.12
2026	21	MIX2 levels	41	63	2.86	3.26	26.9%	9.6%	—	K 20.7% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.10
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIN	35	37	4.70	4.70	21.6%	11.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBMIN	28	29	4.55	4.47	22.5%	10.4%	0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBMIN	40	42	4.41	4.33	23.2%	9.8%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsHeath Holder (age 23) · Jordan Mikel (age 22) · David Garner (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%21.6%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	63	271	73	26	6	0%	1.5	20.7%	11.9%	8.8%	2.3%	2.86	4.10	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	63	271	73	26	6	0%	1.5	20.7%	11.9%	8.8%	2.3%	2.86	4.10	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	63	271	73	26	6	0%	1.5	26.9%	9.6%	17.3%	2.2%	2.86	3.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIN	35	0	37	156	34	18	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.4%	10.2%	2.9%	4.70	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIN	56	0	59	248	56	26	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	2.9%	4.55	4.47	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIN	57	0	60	255	59	25	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.41	4.33	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIN	58	0	61	258	61	24	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.4%	14.2%	2.9%	4.31	4.24	+0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIN	58	0	61	258	61	24	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.3%	14.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.22	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIN	57	0	60	254	60	24	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	2.9%	4.26	4.26	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIN	28	0	29	122	28	13	4	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	2.9%	4.55	4.47	+0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIN	40	0	42	177	41	17	5	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.41	4.33	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIN	48	0	50	211	50	20	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.4%	14.2%	2.9%	4.31	4.24	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIN	50	0	53	224	53	21	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.3%	14.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.22	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIN	51	0	54	228	54	21	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	2.9%	4.26	4.26	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		217	0	228	964	226	92	28	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.9%	2.9%	4.34	3.91	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	81	25	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.9%	2.9%	4.34	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		42	0	65	277	59	32	6	0%	1.5	21.3%	11.6%	9.7%	2.2%	2.77	3.99	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	0	200	852	182	99	19	0%	1.5	21.3%	11.6%	9.7%	2.2%	2.77	3.99	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Hilker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	21.6%	11.4%	2.9%	—	4.35	23.1%	13.2%	180	-0.35	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	93
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	92
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	91
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	90
Ryan Perry R 2009 · 4.18 FIP	22	SU	4.18	22.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.283	3.87	16.1%	6.9%	100	-0.31	3.59	161	90
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	90
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	89
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	89
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	89
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	89
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Chris Perez R 2008 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.269	3.71	22.5%	12.6%	180	-0.51	3.18	379	89
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	89
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	89
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	88
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	88
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	88
Andrew Cashner R 2010 · 4.51 FIP	23	SU	4.51	20.2%	10.1%	3.4%	.285	3.30	19.9%	13.0%	221	-1.21	2.94	1,185	88
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	88

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	56	23.2%	9.8%	1.11	4.39
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*