Luke Hoskins

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ADET	1	1	0.00	3.10	0.0%	0.0%	—	K 0.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP 3.10
2026	23	MIX2 levels	34	52	2.42	2.50	26.5%	9.3%	—	K 19.8% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.44
2027PROJ	24	MLBDET	34	36	4.54	4.54	21.2%	10.6%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBDET	19	20	4.46	4.42	21.8%	10.0%	0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBDET	30	31	4.41	4.39	22.1%	9.9%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsColby Morris (age 24) · Ricardo Velez (age 24) · Alex Palsha (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%21.2%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	52	226	60	21	2	0%	1.5	19.8%	10.9%	8.9%	1.2%	2.42	3.44	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	52	226	60	21	2	0%	1.5	19.8%	10.9%	8.9%	1.2%	2.42	3.44	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	52	226	60	21	2	0%	1.5	26.5%	9.3%	17.3%	0.9%	2.42	2.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	DET	34	0	36	152	32	16	4	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	2.8%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	45	0	47	200	44	20	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	45	0	47	200	44	20	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.9%	12.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.39	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	44	0	47	197	44	20	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.9%	12.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.42	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	19	0	20	84	18	8	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	30	0	31	131	29	13	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.9%	12.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.39	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	34	0	36	152	34	15	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.9%	12.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.42	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	0	88	370	82	37	10	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.9%	12.2%	2.8%	4.42	4.03	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	84	23	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.9%	12.2%	2.8%	4.42	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		35	0	53	230	45	25	3	0%	1.5	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	1.1%	2.38	3.43	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	868	169	93	10	0%	1.5	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	1.1%	2.38	3.43	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Hoskins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	—	4.41	22.1%	12.1%	142	-0.13	—	—	—
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	93
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	92
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	92
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	91
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	90
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	90
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	90
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	90
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	90
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	89
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	89
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	89
Nick Altermatt R 2024 · 3.39 FIP	24	SU	3.39	21.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.282	3.78	20.0%	13.0%	95	+0.39	2.20	144	89
Andrew Cashner R 2010 · 4.51 FIP	23	SU	4.51	20.2%	10.1%	3.4%	.285	3.30	19.9%	13.0%	221	-1.21	2.94	1,185	89
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	89
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	89
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.50	21.7%	10.0%	142	+0.88	3.62	311	88
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	88
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	88
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	88

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	44	21.9%	10.1%	1.08	4.45
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*