Daniel Gentile — OGILVIE

Daniel Gentile P DSL CLE Goryl

Age 17 RHP 6'0" / 155 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.2 · 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.95

FIP5.95

K%14.0%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%-2.4%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	12	11	48	199	40	23	1	92%	4.0	13.7%	14.4%	-0.8%	0.5%	2.81	4.07	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	12	11	48	199	40	23	1	92%	4.0	13.7%	14.4%	-0.8%	0.5%	2.81	4.07	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	12	11	48	199	40	23	1	92%	4.0	20.1%	11.6%	8.5%	0.5%	2.81	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	12	12	42	196	48	22	3	100%	3.5	16.7%	14.0%	2.6%	2.1%	5.95	4.65	—
YTD	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	12	12	42	196	48	22	3	100%	3.5	16.7%	14.0%	2.6%	2.1%	5.95	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	12	12	42	196	48	22	3	100%	3.5	24.5%	11.2%	13.3%	1.5%	5.95	3.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	18	MLB MLE	—	8	8	45	192	30	28	5	100%	5.7	15.9%	14.8%	1.1%	2.8%	5.65	5.56	-0.3
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	9	9	48	201	34	27	6	100%	5.3	17.1%	13.6%	3.5%	2.8%	5.39	5.28	-0.2
2029	20	MLB MLE	—	9	9	50	212	38	27	6	100%	5.6	17.9%	12.9%	5.1%	2.7%	5.19	5.09	-0.1
2030	21	MLB MLE	—	10	10	53	222	41	27	6	100%	5.3	18.5%	12.3%	6.1%	2.7%	5.04	4.95	-0.0
2031	22	MLB MLE	—	10	10	55	233	45	27	6	100%	5.5	19.4%	11.8%	7.6%	2.6%	4.88	4.77	+0.1
2032	23	MLB MLE	—	10	10	57	242	49	28	6	100%	5.7	20.1%	11.4%	8.7%	2.6%	4.74	4.64	+0.2
2033	24	MLB MLE	—	10	10	59	248	51	28	6	100%	5.9	20.7%	11.2%	9.4%	2.5%	4.62	4.55	+0.2
2034	25	MLB MLE	—	10	10	59	251	53	28	6	100%	5.9	21.0%	11.1%	10.0%	2.5%	4.54	4.49	+0.3
2035	26	MLB MLE	—	10	10	59	251	53	28	6	100%	5.9	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	2.5%	4.50	4.47	+0.3
2036	27	MLB MLE	—	10	10	58	247	52	27	6	100%	5.8	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	2.6%	4.50	4.51	+0.3
2027	18	MLB CTX	—	4	4	22	93	15	14	3	100%	5.5	15.9%	14.8%	1.1%	2.8%	5.65	5.56	-0.2
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	6	6	35	148	25	20	4	100%	5.8	17.1%	13.6%	3.5%	2.8%	5.39	5.28	-0.2
2029	20	MLB CTX	—	8	8	42	177	32	23	5	100%	5.2	17.9%	12.9%	5.1%	2.7%	5.19	5.09	-0.1
2030	21	MLB CTX	—	9	9	47	198	37	24	5	100%	5.2	18.5%	12.3%	6.1%	2.7%	5.04	4.95	-0.0
2031	22	MLB CTX	—	9	9	51	215	42	25	6	100%	5.7	19.4%	11.8%	7.6%	2.6%	4.88	4.77	+0.1
2032	23	MLB CTX	—	10	10	54	228	46	26	6	100%	5.4	20.1%	11.4%	8.7%	2.6%	4.74	4.64	+0.2
2033	24	MLB CTX	—	10	10	56	236	49	27	6	100%	5.6	20.7%	11.2%	9.4%	2.5%	4.62	4.55	+0.2
2034	25	MLB CTX	—	10	10	56	236	50	26	6	100%	5.6	21.0%	11.1%	10.0%	2.5%	4.54	4.49	+0.3
2035	26	MLB CTX	—	9	9	56	236	50	26	6	100%	6.2	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	2.5%	4.50	4.47	+0.3
2036	27	MLB CTX	—	9	9	56	236	50	26	6	100%	6.2	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	2.6%	4.50	4.51	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	91	476	2011	396	238	52	100%	5.2	19.7%	11.9%	7.8%	2.6%	4.82	4.37	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	38	200	844	166	100	22	100%	5.2	19.7%	11.9%	7.8%	2.6%	4.82	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		24	23	90	395	60	56	5	96%	3.8	15.1%	14.2%	0.9%	1.3%	4.28	4.36	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	51	200	875	132	125	12	96%	3.8	15.1%	14.2%	0.9%	1.3%	4.28	4.36	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Gentile (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.95	14.0%	16.4%	2.9%	—	5.30	17.0%	3.3%	143	-0.65	—	—	—
Jean Munoz R 2021 · 4.96 FIP	18	SP	4.96	16.1%	16.1%	2.2%	.292	3.91	17.3%	2.4%	82	-1.05	3.23	215	90
Eudry Alcantara R 2023 · 6.03 FIP	18	SP	6.03	11.4%	19.2%	2.7%	.278	6.45	15.3%	-9.0%	71	+0.42	4.83	114	88
Anderson Munoz R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SP-	5.90	14.4%	18.2%	3.1%	.306	4.35	25.7%	13.3%	73	-1.55	4.15	109	87
Dennis Santana R 2015 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP	5.67	15.3%	20.0%	2.4%	.319	3.48	20.3%	8.8%	268	-2.19	2.82	776	85
Ignacio Feliz R 2017 · 6.04 FIP	17	SP	6.04	11.8%	21.1%	2.3%	.276	2.62	19.8%	10.3%	45	-3.42	2.62	328	85
Josue Panacual R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	17	SP	5.37	10.4%	16.1%	2.0%	.286	4.50	15.0%	1.1%	118	-0.87	4.41	164	85
Carlos Paula R 2017 · 5.83 FIP	17	SP	5.83	8.1%	14.9%	2.8%	.242	3.62	17.7%	5.2%	83	-2.21	3.48	128	85
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	85
Kelvin Feliz R 2018 · 4.95 FIP	17	SP	4.95	13.1%	17.9%	1.3%	.295	3.82	14.9%	1.7%	59	-1.13	3.82	110	85
Riley Pint R 2016 · 4.89 FIP	18	SP	4.89	14.1%	16.5%	1.6%	.363	4.70	14.0%	-5.4%	111	-0.19	2.94	287	85
Keiber Arredondo R 2017 · 5.86 FIP	19	SP	5.86	13.0%	13.4%	3.9%	.292	4.00	16.0%	2.7%	93	-1.86	3.61	141	84
Jonas De La Cruz R 2017 · 4.90 FIP	19	SP	4.90	15.2%	15.3%	2.1%	.326	5.27	18.5%	4.3%	47	+0.37	4.73	130	84
Rael Santos R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	17	SP-	4.99	15.7%	16.0%	2.1%	.311	4.15	17.8%	-2.3%	46	-0.84	4.15	122	83
Mason McGwire R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	19	SP	6.54	13.2%	19.6%	3.8%	.374	4.91	18.1%	3.8%	120	-1.63	4.11	155	83
Juan De La Cruz R 2022 · 5.06 FIP	17	SP	5.06	10.6%	12.6%	2.3%	.269	4.65	17.2%	-0.0%	129	-0.41	3.37	220	83
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	83
Hunter Stratton R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	20	SP	5.73	13.1%	20.3%	2.1%	.266	4.69	14.5%	0.1%	174	-1.04	3.02	527	83
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	83
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	82
Kleiber Bordones R 2018 · 6.61 FIP	17	SP	6.61	9.9%	19.2%	3.5%	.264	4.17	14.8%	1.2%	60	-2.44	4.17	112	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	52	19.2%	12.2%	1.02	4.92
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04