Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 11 | 11 | 37 | 174 | 36 | 23 | 2 | 100% | 3.4 | 14.1% | 16.5% | -2.5% | 1.6% | 5.35 | 4.89 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 11 | 11 | 37 | 174 | 36 | 23 | 2 | 100% | 3.4 | 20.7% | 13.2% | 7.5% | 1.1% | 5.35 | 3.72 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Asheville Tourists | 22 | 22 | 93 | 435 | 79 | 59 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 13.4% | 16.0% | -2.6% | 0.6% | 5.42 | 4.32 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Asheville Tourists | 22 | 22 | 93 | 435 | 79 | 59 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 18.2% | 13.6% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 5.42 | 3.72 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Asheville Tourists | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 33.3% | -33.3% | 0.0% | 81.00 | 7.32 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Asheville Tourists | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 33.3% | -33.3% | 0.0% | 81.00 | 21.10 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Asheville Tourists | 21 | 3 | 18 | 98 | 23 | 31 | 0 | 14% | 0.8 | 17.4% | 37.3% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 8.66 | 6.36 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Asheville Tourists | 21 | 3 | 18 | 98 | 23 | 31 | 0 | 14% | 0.8 | 23.5% | 31.6% | -8.2% | 0.0% | 8.66 | 5.76 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 10 | 0 | 11 | 49 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.7% | 20.4% | 14.3% | 6.1% | 3.38 | 6.12 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 10 | 0 | 11 | 49 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.7% | 20.4% | 14.3% | 6.1% | 3.38 | 6.38 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 46 | 199 | 58 | 31 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 17.2% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 4.53 | 4.69 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 46 | 199 | 58 | 31 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.1% | 15.6% | 13.6% | 2.0% | 4.53 | 3.74 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 58 | 278 | 85 | 60 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.4% | 21.9% | 5.5% | 1.1% | 6.24 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 58 | 278 | 85 | 60 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.6% | 21.6% | 9.0% | 1.1% | 6.24 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 45 | 215 | 77 | 45 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.4% | 21.6% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 5.24 | 3.18 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 45 | 215 | 77 | 45 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.8% | 20.9% | 14.9% | 0.9% | 5.24 | 3.26 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | COL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 30 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 2.4% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | COL | 23 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 28 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | COL | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 0 | 13 | 65 | 17 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.6% | 20.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 9.47 | 5.98 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 214 | 0 | 200 | 1026 | 267 | 205 | 47 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.6% | 20.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 9.47 | 5.98 | -1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 195 | 37 | 307 | 1454 | 308 | 288 | 17 | 19% | 1.6 | 21.2% | 19.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 5.61 | 4.45 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 24 | 200 | 948 | 201 | 188 | 11 | 19% | 1.6 | 21.2% | 19.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 5.61 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Pint (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 27.8% | 14.3% | 2.4% | — | 4.41 | 27.1% | 13.1% | 25 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 79 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.60 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.16 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.44 | 2.16 | 186 | 78 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 75 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 75 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 25.6% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 272 | 75 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.44 | 29.2% | 12.4% | 2.2% | .353 | 2.98 | 35.5% | 27.4% | 61 | -0.46 | 1.52 | 452 | 73 |
| Brad Brach R 2027 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 73 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 73 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 73 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 73 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.68 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .389 | 4.81 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 220 | 73 |
| Jake Cousins R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.23 | 30.9% | 11.9% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.01 | 31.6% | 18.8% | 65 | +0.78 | 1.11 | 160 | 72 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .253 | 3.91 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 154 | +0.37 | 2.90 | 484 | 72 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.63 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 315 | 72 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 556 | 72 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 72 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 71 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.16 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.68 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 39 | -0.48 | 3.68 | 323 | 71 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.59 | 23.6% | 15.6% | 0.9% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 160 | 71 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 27.5% | 14.2% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |