Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers Blue | 11 | 5 | 48 | 191 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 45% | 4.3 | 17.4% | 4.6% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 2.21 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers Blue | 11 | 5 | 48 | 191 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 45% | 4.3 | 25.7% | 3.7% | 22.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 1.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | A | Wilson Warbirds | 11 | 2 | 38 | 158 | 44 | 10 | 5 | 18% | 3.4 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 4.54 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | MIL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 120 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.1% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 18 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 66 | 278 | 66 | 18 | 8 | — | — | 23.6% | 6.5% | 17.1% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 0 | 30 | 126 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 3.90 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 55 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 22 | 7 | 85 | 349 | 62 | 22 | 7 | 32% | 3.9 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 11.5% | 2.1% | 3.38 | 3.57 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 16 | 200 | 818 | 146 | 52 | 18 | 32% | 3.9 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 11.5% | 2.1% | 3.38 | 3.57 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Diustin Mayorquin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.28 | 19.0% | 12.1% | 30 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Anderson Reynoso R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.06 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .308 | 4.43 | 13.0% | 5.2% | 68 | +0.37 | 3.56 | 122 | 85 |
| Albert Rivas R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.29 | 16.0% | 6.5% | 1.3% | .343 | 4.02 | 16.1% | 6.2% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.29 | 148 | 83 |
| Carlos Carra R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.46 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .293 | 6.26 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 65 | +1.80 | 4.10 | 128 | 83 |
| Carlos Gutierrez R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.71 | 15.1% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .326 | 3.08 | 18.3% | 6.2% | 47 | -1.63 | 3.08 | 122 | 83 |
| Geno Encina R 2029 · 4.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.22 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .325 | 7.60 | 12.0% | 2.3% | 76 | +3.38 | 4.22 | 200 | 82 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 82 |
| Blayne Enlow R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.50 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 1.8% | .170 | 3.88 | 14.1% | 4.4% | 205 | +0.38 | 3.43 | 413 | 81 |
| Roger Rodriguez R 2025 · 3.46 FIP | 17 | SW | 3.46 | 13.3% | 5.6% | 1.4% | .280 | 4.27 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 78 | +0.81 | 3.20 | 128 | 80 |
| Jose Romero R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.20 | 21.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% | .267 | 4.53 | 13.3% | 3.8% | 149 | +1.33 | 3.20 | 192 | 80 |
| Simon Mathews R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 80 |
| Sean Paul Liñan R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.04 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .324 | 4.14 | 23.1% | 11.5% | 181 | +0.10 | 3.29 | 243 | 80 |
| Kiber Arvelaez R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.57 | 14.1% | 6.9% | 1.4% | .292 | 3.68 | 15.0% | 2.3% | 54 | +0.11 | 2.89 | 104 | 79 |
| Abdiel Medina R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 17 | SW | 3.63 | 16.2% | 9.3% | 1.3% | .303 | 4.75 | 14.8% | 6.3% | 88 | +1.12 | 3.63 | 191 | 79 |
| Efrain Contreras R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.51 | 19.2% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.93 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 110 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 383 | 79 |
| Jose Rodulfo R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.89 | 13.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | .356 | 5.92 | 14.2% | 0.8% | 36 | +2.03 | 2.85 | 208 | 78 |
| Wellington Caceres R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.9% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .306 | 5.82 | 13.1% | 2.1% | 68 | +1.66 | 4.16 | 121 | 78 |
| Scooter Hightower R 2029 · 3.23 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.23 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 2.1% | .304 | 2.89 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 68 | -0.34 | 2.89 | 160 | 78 |
| Jeremy Walker R 2029 · 3.49 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.49 | 14.5% | 5.8% | 1.6% | .302 | 3.99 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 355 | +0.50 | 2.54 | 519 | 78 |
| Juan Robles R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.21 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .261 | 3.29 | 22.2% | 14.5% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.19 | 122 | 77 |
| Tzu-Chen Sha R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.38 | 16.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | .335 | 5.24 | 13.2% | 5.2% | 241 | +0.86 | 4.31 | 292 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 18.5% | 6.9% | 1.09 | 4.35 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |