Albert Rivas — OGILVIE

Albert Rivas P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 155 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%15.3%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%2.6%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	13	4	43	191	45	10	2	31%	3.3	16.0%	6.5%	9.5%	1.4%	4.85	3.33	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	13	4	43	191	45	10	2	31%	3.3	23.6%	5.2%	18.3%	1.0%	4.85	2.30	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	5	1	19	79	19	4	2	20%	3.8	16.4%	6.3%	10.0%	4.0%	4.26	4.70	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	5	1	19	79	19	4	2	20%	3.8	16.4%	6.3%	10.0%	4.0%	4.26	4.70	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	5	1	19	79	19	4	2	20%	3.8	24.1%	5.1%	19.0%	2.5%	4.26	3.10	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	36	152	34	11	1	0%	1.5	16.0%	8.8%	7.3%	0.8%	3.72	3.32	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	36	152	34	11	1	0%	1.5	16.0%	8.8%	7.3%	0.8%	3.72	3.32	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	36	152	34	11	1	0%	1.5	22.4%	7.2%	15.1%	0.7%	3.72	2.49	—
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	27	0	50	212	46	22	4	0%	1.8	16.1%	12.2%	3.8%	1.9%	3.62	4.35	—
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	27	0	50	212	46	22	4	0%	1.8	16.1%	12.2%	3.8%	1.9%	3.62	4.35	—
2025	22	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	27	0	50	212	46	22	4	0%	1.8	21.7%	10.4%	11.3%	1.9%	3.62	3.62	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	ATL	4	0	4	17	3	2	0	0%	1.0	15.3%	12.7%	2.6%	2.8%	5.35	5.35	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ATL	51	0	54	227	39	27	6	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	2.8%	5.16	5.09	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	52	0	54	230	41	26	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.4%	6.6%	2.8%	5.01	4.95	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	ATL	22	0	23	97	17	12	3	0%	1.0	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	2.8%	5.16	5.09	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	34	0	36	152	27	17	4	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.4%	6.6%	2.8%	5.01	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	44	29	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	11.6%	6.0%	2.8%	5.07	4.63	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	98	24	0%	1.1	17.6%	11.6%	6.0%	2.8%	5.07	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		70	5	148	634	102	57	11	7%	2.1	16.1%	9.0%	7.1%	1.8%	4.08	3.84	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	7	200	859	138	77	15	7%	2.1	16.1%	9.0%	7.1%	1.8%	4.08	3.84	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Albert Rivas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	15.3%	12.7%	2.8%	—	5.02	17.5%	5.9%	108	-0.33	—	—	—
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.22	528	91
Everhett Hazelwood R 2022 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	13.8%	12.2%	3.2%	.306	6.51	18.7%	2.9%	63	+1.28	5.23	117	91
Jacinto Arredondo R 2021 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	14.4%	12.7%	2.6%	.310	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	50	-0.04	4.89	101	91
Simon Mercedes R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	23	SU	4.86	14.3%	11.7%	2.7%	.309	4.94	16.4%	3.9%	60	+0.08	4.86	139	90
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	89
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	89
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	89
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	89
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	88
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	88
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	88
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	88
Taylor Lewis R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	15.4%	11.7%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	2.47	142	87
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	87
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	87
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	86
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	86
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	86
Ben Hecht R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	18.3%	14.4%	1.9%	.265	4.51	22.7%	9.8%	58	+0.12	4.39	155	86
Kelvis Valerio R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	23	SU	4.53	12.9%	10.3%	2.2%	.312	4.18	11.4%	4.0%	190	-0.35	4.14	266	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	16.8%	12.0%	1.09	5.17
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86