Albert Rivas
P
Augusta GreenJackets
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 155 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.33
FIP5.33
K%15.3%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%2.6%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Braves | 13 | 4 | 43 | 191 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 31% | 3.3 | 16.0% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 1.3% | 4.85 | 3.29 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Braves | 13 | 4 | 43 | 191 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 31% | 3.3 | 23.6% | 5.2% | 18.3% | 1.0% | 4.85 | 2.30 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Braves | 5 | 1 | 19 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 20% | 3.8 | 16.4% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 4.26 | 4.99 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Braves | 5 | 1 | 19 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 20% | 3.8 | 24.1% | 5.1% | 19.0% | 2.5% | 4.26 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 0.8% | 3.72 | 3.32 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.4% | 7.2% | 15.1% | 0.7% | 3.72 | 2.49 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 27 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 46 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.8 | 16.1% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 3.62 | 4.16 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 27 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 46 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 3.62 | 3.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.33 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 39 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 11.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 41 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 4.99 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 11.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 4.99 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 44 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 11.5% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.04 | 4.61 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 149 | 98 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 11.5% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.04 | 4.61 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 5 | 148 | 634 | 102 | 57 | 11 | 7% | 2.1 | 16.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 4.08 | 3.80 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 7 | 200 | 859 | 138 | 77 | 14 | 7% | 2.1 | 16.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 4.08 | 3.80 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Albert Rivas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 15.3% | 12.7% | 2.8% | — | 5.00 | 17.5% | 5.9% | 108 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Tayler Scott R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.49 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.99 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 162 | -0.50 | 3.20 | 528 | 92 |
| Jacinto Arredondo R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.22 | 14.4% | 12.7% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.89 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 50 | -0.33 | 4.89 | 101 | 91 |
| Everhett Hazelwood R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.32 | 13.8% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .306 | 6.84 | 18.7% | 2.9% | 63 | +1.52 | 5.32 | 117 | 91 |
| Cole Hillier R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 16.9% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.61 | 18.4% | 4.4% | 95 | -0.08 | 3.72 | 153 | 90 |
| Simon Mercedes R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.87 | 14.3% | 11.7% | 2.7% | .309 | 5.14 | 16.4% | 3.9% | 60 | +0.27 | 4.87 | 139 | 90 |
| David Trexler R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 89 |
| Ian Villers R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .311 | 4.12 | 15.6% | 5.2% | 59 | -0.47 | 4.12 | 107 | 89 |
| Jayson McKinley R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .308 | 3.66 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 134 | -0.75 | 2.33 | 173 | 89 |
| Kyle Roche R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.64 | 15.5% | 13.3% | 2.1% | .349 | 4.98 | 16.5% | 5.8% | 47 | +0.34 | 4.64 | 110 | 89 |
| Junior Rincon R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.77 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.16 | 3.50 | 113 | 89 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2028 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 88 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.20 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.19 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 182 | -1.01 | 3.59 | 327 | 88 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2027 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 88 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.18 | 15.8% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .247 | 4.30 | 19.3% | 10.6% | 82 | -0.88 | 4.28 | 195 | 87 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.56 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 58 | +0.01 | 4.55 | 155 | 87 |
| Jake McCasland R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.86 | 14.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .348 | 3.94 | 15.8% | 8.2% | 317 | -0.92 | 3.27 | 367 | 87 |
| Jake Johansen R 2027 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 15.8% | 12.8% | 4.0% | .351 | 4.21 | 13.6% | 3.0% | 114 | -1.38 | 3.69 | 162 | 87 |
| Taylor Grover R 2027 · 5.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.40 | 15.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .229 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.63 | 239 | 86 |
| Kelvis Valerio R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.80 | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .312 | 4.08 | 11.4% | 4.0% | 190 | -0.72 | 4.03 | 266 | 86 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 16.8% | 11.9% | 1.08 | 5.15 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |