Esteban Castro — OGILVIE

Esteban CastroC DSL Astros Orange

Age 18 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 73 proj PA

wRC+47

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .270 / .253

PA73

HR1

K%34

BB%7

ISO65

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	80	66	6	0	0	0	6	37	7	0	0	91	241	91	331		200	46	8	175	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	80	62	9	0	0	1	10	26	7	0	0	145	329	194	523	48	222	32	12	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	—	—	73	66	13	2	0	1	5	24	2	1	0	197	274	273	547	76	290	33	7	247	47	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	166	148	29	4	1	2	12	54	5	1	1	196	279	277	556	81	292	33	7	259	56	-8	-0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	310	275	56	8	2	4	23	97	9	3	1	204	287	291	578	87	294	31	7	267	63	-13	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.1
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	421	374	76	11	2	6	32	130	12	3	1	203	287	291	579	88	295	31	8	273	67	-16	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.4
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	500	444	93	14	3	8	38	152	14	4	2	209	292	309	601	99	296	30	8	277	70	-17	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.6
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	520	460	97	14	3	9	40	158	15	4	2	211	295	313	608	102	297	30	8	278	71	-17	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.7
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	520	460	97	14	3	9	40	158	15	4	2	211	295	313	608	102	298	30	8	280	73	-16	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.8
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	520	460	97	14	3	9	40	158	15	4	2	211	295	313	608	102	298	30	8	281	73	-16	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.9
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	520	460	98	14	3	10	40	158	15	4	2	213	297	322	619	109	297	30	8	282	74	-15	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.9
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	57	51	10	1	0	1	4	18	2	0	0	196	281	275	555	78	292	32	7	259	56	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	150	134	27	4	1	2	11	47	4	1	0	201	282	291	573	90	294	31	7	267	63	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	228	202	42	6	1	4	17	70	7	2	1	208	292	307	599	99	295	31	7	273	67	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	283	251	54	8	2	5	22	86	8	2	1	215	299	323	622	108	296	30	8	277	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	299	266	56	8	2	5	23	91	8	2	1	211	293	312	605	102	297	30	8	278	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	296	263	56	8	2	5	23	90	8	2	1	213	296	316	612	103	298	30	8	280	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	295	262	56	8	2	5	23	89	8	2	1	214	297	317	614	103	298	30	8	281	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	294	261	55	8	2	5	23	89	8	2	1	211	295	314	609	103	297	30	8	282	74	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1902	1690	356	51	12	32	146	580	53	13	6	211	294	312	606	101	299	30	8	277	70	-64	+0	+0	+34	+54	2.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	121	17	4	11	50	198	18	4	2	209	293	310	602	100	296	30	8	277	70	-22	+0	+0	+12	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	3630	3213	662	95	20	58	276	1126	109	28	13	206	291	302	593	96	295	31	8	274	68	-132	+0	+0	+65	+103	3.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	119	17	4	10	49	202	20	5	2	207	292	303	595	96	297	31	8	274	68	-24	+0	+0	+12	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	80	62	9	0	0	1	10	26	7	0	0	145	329	194	523	48	222	32	12	268	63	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#4Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,977	32	16	210	291	309	+35	+20	2.4	2.4
	/162	664	11	6	210	291	309	+11.9	+6.7	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esteban Castro (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	188/270/253	65	290	1	1	34%	7%	47	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Richard Ramirez 2023 · A	18	37	37→55	47→40	38	176/239/249	73	297	5	6	40%	8%	30	-3.1	195/259/306	111	313	11	5	38%	8%	55	-1.4	199/259/329	129	331	13	2	41%	6%	57	-0.5
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→55	45→40	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	29	-3.2	211/250/329	118	282	13	5	29%	5%	56	-1.3	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	43→40	38→55	48→50	43	202/265/291	89	290	5	5	30%	7%	53	-1.5	195/240/313	118	278	11	5	32%	5%	47	-1.9	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Aaron Familia 2017 · A	18	38	38→40	48→40	45	181/270/258	78	284	6	4	36%	9%	48	-1.9	187/273/272	85	333	6	4	41%	9%	53	-1.5	167/258/250	82	313	7	3	44%	9%	39	-0.7
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	47→45	37	205/260/286	81	312	4	7	34%	5%	49	-1.8	227/275/314	87	287	6	8	22%	5%	63	-0.9	241/291/328	87	291	6	8	19%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Robert Gonzalez 2019 · A	18	37	40→45	51→60	42	173/271/261	88	302	7	6	41%	9%	50	-1.8	193/299/287	94	289	6	11	32%	11%	68	-0.5	180/305/264	84	250	5	20	26%	12%	63	-0.3
✕Adrian De Leon 2022 · A	18	43	38→40	49→45	42	202/274/283	81	295	6	6	32%	7%	55	-1.4	204/293/283	79	316	6	6	34%	9%	64	-0.8	155/264/219	64	269	6	3	39%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	36	-2.7	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	53	-1.5	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	44	-0.5
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Daniel Santos 2017 · A	18	40	35→45	51→40	43	188/256/247	59	280	3	8	32%	8%	37	-2.6	189/258/268	79	267	5	6	29%	6%	44	-2.1	173/243/251	78	245	5	4	30%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Hector Martinez 2015 · A	18	42	38→45	41→45	33	201/241/285	84	303	5	7	34%	4%	40	-2.4	226/266/311	85	316	6	8	29%	4%	57	-1.2	244/276/343	99	341	7	9	29%	2%	66	-0.2
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2011 · A	18	38	36→45	48→40	39	186/240/247	61	267	4	5	31%	5%	30	-3.1	192/249/275	83	281	7	4	32%	5%	42	-2.3	187/245/279	93	270	8	2	33%	5%	39	-0.7
✕Marcus Wilson 2015 · A	18	39→49	36→50	48→50	38	183/242/249	66	297	4	8	38%	7%	32	-3.0	203/268/284	81	314	5	10	34%	8%	52	-1.6	215/282/315	100	313	8	11	31%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Douglas Glod 2023 · A	18	41	41→45	45	44	191/273/288	97	305	8	7	37%	9%	56	-1.3	173/273/269	96	330	8	5	44%	11%	53	-1.5	137/247/219	82	283	7	3	48%	11%	28	-1.3
✕Wilmer Dominguez 2010 · A	19	43	38→45	46→45	38	202/250/284	82	300	5	5	33%	6%	43	-2.2	219/259/313	94	273	9	6	22%	5%	55	-1.4	232/268/336	104	264	12	5	17%	4%	61	-0.3
✕Emilio King 2008 · A	18	40	39→45	44→40	38	192/250/280	89	281	6	5	33%	5%	44	-2.1	184/255/258	74	259	4	7	29%	6%	41	-2.3	206/259/300	94	298	6	4	31%	4%	49	-0.8
✕Jandel Paulino 2019 · A	18	39	35→40	41→45	40	185/261/243	58	280	3	8	33%	7%	40	-2.4	212/286/295	83	307	6	6	31%	7%	63	-0.8	215/300/291	76	303	6	4	28%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Jose Peroza 2018 · A	18	43→44	38→45	46→45	35	202/242/283	81	314	4	8	36%	5%	40	-2.4	201/249/311	110	300	9	7	34%	5%	50	-1.7	203/275/326	123	308	13	4	36%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	38	-2.6	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	49	-1.8	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3