Anderson Areinamo

SS FCL Astros

Age 20 R/R 5'9" / 135 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1127ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL Astros Or…	208	.300/.417/.465	6	18	47	—	.185/.289/.253
2026	19	ROKHOU	168	.200/.345/.348	4	12	36	—	.138/.242/.234
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBHOU	278	.211/.284/.307	4	6	68	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBHOU	47	.218/.291/.322	1	1	73	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBHOU	112	.221/.295/.332	2	3	76	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

ISO65

Speed60

Chase%58

K%53

BB%51

Whiff%41

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsCayden Wallace (age 21) · Tito Polo (age 20) · Wes Rogers (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 87 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .282 / .304

PA87

HR1

K%27

BB%8

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	208	170	51	10	0	6	28	34	6	18	0	300	417	465	881	165	341	16	13	389	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	168	135	27	8	0	4	26	35	4	12	1	200	345	348	694	148	232	21	15	317	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	208	178	33	6	0	2	20	41	6	18	0	185	289	253	542	67	211	20	10	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	168	145	20	5	0	3	16	50	4	12	1	138	242	234	477	97	175	30	10	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	208	178	33	6	0	2	20	41	6	18	0	185	289	253	542	67	226	20	10	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	208	170	51	10	0	6	28	34	6	18	0	300	417	465	881	165	341	16	13	389	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	168	145	20	5	0	3	16	50	4	12	1	138	242	234	477	97	179	30	10	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	168	135	27	8	0	4	26	35	4	12	1	200	345	348	694	148	232	21	15	317	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	208	180	33	6	0	2	20	41	6	18	0	183	289	250	539	67	211	20	10	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	168	146	20	5	0	3	16	50	4	12	1	137	242	233	475	96	175	30	10	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	208	180	33	6	0	2	20	41	6	18	0	183	289	250	539	67	211	20	10	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	168	146	20	5	0	3	16	50	4	12	1	137	242	233	475	96	175	30	10	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	278	251	54	10	2	4	22	75	3	6	1	211	284	307	590	95	284	27	8	269	68	-10	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	137	123	27	5	1	2	11	37	2	3	1	215	289	319	607	103	285	27	8	276	73	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	231	207	45	8	1	4	19	61	3	6	1	219	292	328	620	110	286	26	8	281	76	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	326	293	65	12	2	6	26	85	4	8	2	221	295	336	631	115	287	26	8	285	79	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	393	353	80	15	2	8	32	101	5	10	2	224	297	342	639	118	288	26	8	289	81	-9	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	HOU	56%	432	389	87	16	2	9	35	110	5	11	2	225	299	346	644	121	289	25	8	291	83	-9	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.7
2033	26	MLB MLE	HOU	56%	452	406	91	17	2	9	37	116	6	11	2	225	298	345	644	121	288	26	8	290	83	-9	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	459	412	92	17	2	9	38	118	6	11	2	224	298	343	640	119	288	26	8	289	82	-10	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.6
2035	28	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	459	413	91	17	2	9	38	119	5	10	2	222	296	338	634	116	287	26	8	287	80	-11	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.5
2036	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	451	406	88	16	2	8	37	118	5	9	2	220	293	332	625	113	286	26	8	283	78	-12	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	440	396	86	16	2	8	36	117	5	9	2	217	290	325	615	108	284	27	8	279	75	-13	+1	-2	+5	+10	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	47	42	9	2	0	1	4	13	1	1	0	218	291	322	613	104	289	28	9	278	73	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	112	101	22	4	1	2	9	29	1	3	1	221	295	332	627	111	291	26	8	284	76	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	177	159	36	7	1	3	14	46	2	4	1	224	297	339	637	115	292	26	8	288	79	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	218	195	44	9	1	4	18	56	3	5	1	226	300	345	645	119	293	26	8	291	81	-5	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	HOU	56%	242	217	50	10	1	5	20	62	3	6	1	228	301	349	650	122	293	26	8	293	83	-5	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	HOU	56%	254	228	51	10	1	5	21	65	3	6	1	227	301	349	650	121	293	26	8	293	83	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	254	228	51	10	1	5	21	65	3	6	1	226	300	346	646	120	292	26	8	291	82	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	252	226	51	10	1	5	21	65	3	6	1	225	298	342	640	117	291	26	8	289	80	-6	+1	-0	+3	+5	0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	241	216	47	9	1	4	20	63	3	5	1	222	295	336	631	114	290	26	8	285	78	-6	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	231	207	46	9	1	4	19	61	3	5	1	219	292	329	621	109	289	26	8	281	75	-7	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2028	1819	407	80	9	38	167	525	25	47	9	224	298	340	638	117	292	26	8	289	76	-49	+6	-2	+22	+44	2.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	131	26	3	12	54	168	8	15	3	225	300	341	641	117	293	26	8	289	76	-16	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4243	3800	821	153	18	78	352	1097	57	120	19	216	292	327	620	111	281	26	8	281	76	-95	+11	-4	+41	+84	3.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	126	23	3	12	54	168	9	18	3	216	293	328	622	112	281	26	8	281	76	-16	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Astros · 168 PAwOBA .315 → .222 (−93)K% 20.8% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.83%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	30.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.48%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	9.67%
HBP% /PA	2.38%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.73%
Singles /BIP	15.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.961	×1.008	11.91%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.961	×1.008	5.58%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.961	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	3.14%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .315 → .222; ISO .148 → .109; BABIP .232 → .175. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Astros Orange · 208 PAwOBA .383 → .238 (−145)K% 16.3% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.35%	÷1.009	×1.220	—	—	19.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.46%	÷1.014	×0.700	—	×1.008	9.37%
HBP% /PA	2.88%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.03%
Singles /BIP	25.74%	÷0.985	×0.680	×0.958	×1.008	17.15%
Doubles /BIP	7.35%	÷1.091	×0.600	×0.958	×1.008	3.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.958	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.41%	÷1.492	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.40%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 198, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .383 → .238; ISO .165 → .068; BABIP .341 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#5Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.2	2,115	39	49	222	293	338	+23	+18	3.5	3.3
/162	664	12	15	+7.1	+5.7	1.1	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Anderson Areinamo (OGILVIE)	20	50	40	60	50	209/282/304	94	284	1	2	27%	8%	68	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	46→49	42→50	57→50	43	224/279/341	116	300	8	15	27%	6%	74	-0.5	220/277/337	117	289	10	12	26%	6%	73	-0.6	232/281/372	140	285	16	15	24%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Tito Polo 2015 · A	20	43→53	39→45	54→60	42	206/268/296	90	278	5	17	27%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/320	98	295	8	26	26%	5%	69	-0.9	235/290/350	114	311	11	32	27%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Wes Rogers 2015 · A	21	45→51	41→40	57→65	42	217/270/314	97	294	8	18	28%	6%	65	-1.2	225/283/314	89	299	5	34	25%	7%	70	-0.9	229/287/320	92	301	5	42	24%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Gilberto Celestino 2019 · A	20	43→53	38→45	52→55	42	209/257/289	80	280	6	12	27%	6%	54	-2.0	226/281/328	102	291	8	8	24%	7%	72	-0.7	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Derrik Gibson 2010 · A	20	48→56	37→40	56→55	45	224/290/300	76	303	3	16	26%	7%	70	-0.9	206/266/261	55	280	1	18	25%	7%	51	-2.3	246/312/318	73	319	3	11	22%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2019 · A	19	46→56	40→45	53→50	44	219/282/318	99	308	7	14	30%	8%	70	-0.8	209/265/301	92	294	7	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	251/312/338	87	342	8	12	27%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Anthony Alford 2014 · A	20	44→52	40→45	55	45	209/282/305	97	298	6	12	30%	8%	68	-1.0	213/286/308	95	348	7	16	37%	9%	70	-0.8	220/302/313	92	336	7	21	33%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Christian Lopes 2013 · A	20	42→52	42→45	53→50	42	207/256/324	117	265	8	8	25%	5%	62	-1.4	209/263/288	79	265	4	4	22%	6%	56	-1.9	233/301/343	110	279	9	15	19%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Jorge Alcantara 2012 · A	20	44	40→45	52→50	42	209/274/307	98	306	7	12	32%	8%	65	-1.2	190/261/285	95	288	7	14	34%	8%	55	-1.9	143/221/238	95	216	5	25	34%	8%	30	-1.0
✕Jorge Vega-Rosado 2012 · A	20	46	41→45	55	41	224/274/324	100	303	8	19	28%	6%	69	-0.9	204/260/285	81	308	6	14	33%	6%	55	-2.0	172/231/229	57	271	4	15	36%	6%	30	-1.4
✕Tyler Goeddel 2014 · A	21	44→52	41→45	59→55	40	211/262/313	103	297	7	20	30%	6%	61	-1.5	227/284/341	114	305	9	18	27%	7%	76	-0.4	229/290/345	116	300	9	18	25%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Adan Velazquez 2010 · A	20	41→51	40→45	53→50	45	197/263/292	95	245	6	11	22%	6%	58	-1.7	203/256/288	85	282	5	10	28%	5%	54	-2.0	254/293/350	97	308	8	4	20%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Brandon Dailey 2012 · A	20	47	37→45	58→55	44	219/280/295	76	302	3	17	27%	7%	64	-1.3	195/243/292	97	286	8	8	33%	5%	50	-2.3	171/212/271	100	247	8	5	33%	4%	31	-1.3
✕Ryan McKenna 2018 · A	21	46→56	41→45	53→55	39	217/274/322	104	315	8	12	32%	6%	69	-0.9	233/298/339	106	319	8	12	27%	7%	82	-0.0	230/306/344	115	316	10	13	28%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	43→53	40→50	57→55	43	207/267/301	93	294	6	22	30%	7%	61	-1.5	237/294/369	132	297	12	21	23%	7%	86	+0.3	245/302/388	143	293	14	19	20%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2009 · A	20	44→54	41→40	58→55	45	214/276/316	101	271	7	21	23%	6%	68	-1.0	239/308/317	78	289	5	20	18%	8%	80	-0.2	245/318/310	65	292	4	22	16%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Abiatal Avelino 2015 · A	20	48→54	37→45	54→55	45	226/278/307	81	281	4	18	20%	6%	66	-1.1	236/280/321	85	295	5	22	21%	5%	70	-0.9	253/294/359	106	312	9	19	21%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Sam McWilliams 2019 · A	21	46→52	39→50	54→50	43	214/280/306	92	310	5	15	31%	7%	67	-1.1	212/271/315	103	332	8	9	36%	7%	66	-1.1	236/300/388	152	376	15	10	38%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Jose Escobar 2024 · A	19	46→56	39→40	55→45	42	220/276/306	85	277	6	14	22%	5%	65	-1.2	227/297/326	99	296	8	9	24%	7%	78	-0.3	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→51	39→45	59→55	46	195/272/287	91	280	4	17	30%	9%	60	-1.6	220/296/307	87	294	6	17	25%	9%	74	-0.6	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3

Anderson Areinamo

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps