Daniel Hernandez

C FCL Nationals

Age 19 L/R 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1758ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKWSH	148	.225/.277/.275	0	3	-2	—	.143/.189/.171
2026	18	ROKWSH	84	.190/.238/.215	0	0	-12	—	.138/.179/.150
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBWSH	194	.226/.276/.299	1	2	62	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBWSH	36	.229/.282/.310	0	0	68	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBWSH	95	.232/.286/.321	1	1	72	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%79

Whiff%69

Z-Con%53

Chase%9

ISO5

Max EV1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsJames Beresford (age 20) · Juan Diaz (age 19) · Eduardo Guerrero (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .274 / .297

PA47

HR0

K%24

BB%6

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$5M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	148	138	31	7	0	0	8	16	2	3	2	225	277	275	552	51	254	11	5	255	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	84	79	15	2	0	0	4	13	1	0	0	190	238	215	453	25	227	15	5	213	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	148	140	20	4	0	0	6	20	2	3	2	143	189	171	361	29	169	14	4	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	84	80	11	1	0	0	3	19	1	0	0	138	179	150	329	12	182	23	4	151	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	148	140	20	4	0	0	6	20	2	3	2	143	189	171	361	29	167	14	4	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	148	138	31	7	0	0	8	16	2	3	2	225	277	275	552	51	254	11	5	255	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	84	80	11	1	0	0	3	19	1	0	0	138	179	150	329	12	180	23	4	151	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	84	79	15	2	0	0	4	13	1	0	0	190	238	215	453	25	227	15	5	213	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	148	139	20	4	0	0	6	20	2	3	2	144	189	173	362	29	169	14	4	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	84	80	11	1	0	0	3	19	1	0	0	138	179	150	329	12	182	23	4	151	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	148	139	20	4	0	0	6	20	2	3	2	144	189	173	362	29	169	14	4	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	84	80	11	1	0	0	3	19	1	0	0	138	179	150	329	12	182	23	4	151	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	194	179	40	7	1	1	11	46	2	2	1	226	276	299	575	74	293	24	6	261	62	-9	+0	-2	+3	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	104	96	23	4	1	1	6	24	1	1	1	229	282	312	594	83	295	23	6	269	68	-4	-0	-1	+2	+2	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	197	181	41	7	1	2	12	46	2	3	1	232	287	323	610	91	296	23	6	275	72	-6	+0	-2	+4	+4	-0.0
2030	22	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	307	282	66	11	2	4	19	71	3	4	2	235	290	332	622	98	296	23	6	280	76	-9	+0	-3	+5	+7	0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	393	361	85	15	2	6	25	90	4	5	2	237	293	340	633	103	297	23	6	285	79	-10	+0	-3	+7	+9	0.3
2032	24	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	445	409	97	17	3	7	28	102	5	6	2	238	296	346	642	108	297	23	6	288	81	-10	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.6
2033	25	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	445	409	97	17	3	7	28	102	5	6	2	239	296	347	644	109	298	23	6	289	82	-10	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.7
2034	26	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	445	409	98	17	3	8	28	102	5	6	2	239	296	348	644	109	297	23	6	289	82	-10	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	445	408	97	17	3	7	29	103	5	6	3	238	295	345	640	108	297	23	7	288	81	-10	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.6
2036	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	445	409	97	17	3	7	28	103	5	5	3	236	293	341	634	105	296	23	6	285	79	-11	-0	-2	+8	+10	0.4
2037	29	MLB MLE	WSH	58%	445	409	95	16	2	7	28	105	5	5	3	233	290	335	625	101	295	24	6	281	77	-12	-0	-3	+8	+10	0.2
2038	30	MLB MLE	WSH	60%	445	410	94	16	2	6	28	106	4	4	4	230	287	327	614	96	293	24	6	277	73	-14	-1	-4	+8	+10	-0.1
2039	31	MLB MLE	WSH	62%	426	393	89	15	2	6	26	103	4	3	8	226	282	317	599	91	290	24	6	271	69	-16	-3	-4	+8	+9	-0.6
2028	20	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	36	34	7	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	229	282	310	591	81	294	22	6	268	68	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	95	88	20	4	0	1	6	22	1	1	1	232	286	321	607	89	295	23	6	274	72	-3	-0	-1	+2	+2	-0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	166	153	35	6	1	2	10	38	2	2	1	234	290	330	620	96	296	23	6	279	76	-5	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	222	204	47	8	1	3	14	51	2	3	1	236	293	338	630	101	296	23	6	284	79	-6	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	252	231	55	10	1	4	16	58	3	3	1	238	295	344	639	106	297	23	6	287	81	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	251	230	55	10	1	4	16	57	3	3	1	238	296	345	641	107	297	23	6	288	82	-5	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2034	26	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	251	230	55	10	1	4	16	57	3	3	1	238	296	346	642	108	297	23	6	288	82	-5	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2035	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	247	226	53	9	1	4	16	57	3	3	1	237	295	343	638	106	296	23	6	287	81	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2036	28	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	244	223	52	9	1	4	16	57	3	3	1	235	293	339	632	104	295	23	7	284	79	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2037	29	MLB CTX	WSH	58%	258	237	56	10	1	4	16	61	3	3	2	233	290	333	623	100	294	24	6	281	77	-7	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.1
2038	30	MLB CTX	WSH	60%	268	246	57	10	1	4	17	64	3	3	2	230	286	325	612	95	293	24	6	276	73	-8	-0	-2	+5	+6	-0.0
2039	31	MLB CTX	WSH	62%	263	243	54	9	1	3	16	64	2	2	5	226	282	316	597	90	290	24	6	270	69	-10	-2	-3	+5	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2553	2345	546	96	10	37	161	594	28	29	17	233	290	330	620	97	295	23	6	282	73	-68	-1	-16	+46	+55	1.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	597	139	24	3	9	41	151	7	7	4	233	290	328	618	95	295	23	6	282	73	-17	-0	-4	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4821	4440	1020	176	27	68	297	1107	51	58	35	230	286	327	613	98	290	23	6	277	73	-124	-2	-29	+82	+99	2.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	138	24	4	9	40	149	7	8	5	230	286	329	615	98	291	23	6	277	73	-18	-0	-4	+12	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 84 PAwOBA .207 → .151 (−56)K% 15.5% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.48%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	22.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	3.02%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.88%
Singles /BIP	19.70%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.969	×1.022	16.00%
Doubles /BIP	3.03%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.969	×1.022	2.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.969	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .207 → .151; ISO .025 → .017; BABIP .227 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Nationals · 148 PAwOBA .249 → .165 (−84)K% 10.8% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.81%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	13.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.41%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.77%
HBP% /PA	1.35%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.97%
Singles /BIP	19.67%	÷1.025	×0.680	×1.002	×1.022	13.37%
Doubles /BIP	5.74%	÷0.999	×0.600	×1.002	×1.022	3.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.999	×0.600	×1.002	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.300	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .249 → .165; ISO .051 → .031; BABIP .254 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dioner Navarrolast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,544 PA	5.3	3,544	77	14	250	308	370	+63	-1	12.1	11.6
/162	664	14	3	+11.9	-0.2	2.3	pk7: 11
#2Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#5Gerald Lairdlast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,690 PA	4.1	2,690	37	21	244	305	354	+48	-40	3.7	5.4
/162	664	9	5	+11.9	-9.8	0.9	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	3.9	2,602	39	30	236	289	338	+46	-16	4.7	4.3
/162	664	10	8	+11.9	-4.1	1.2	pk7: 4
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Daniel Hernandez (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	224/274/297	73	293	0	1	24%	6%	62	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕James Beresford 2009 · A	20	46→56	33→30	42→45	45	213/270/256	43	281	1	6	24%	7%	51	-2.2	253/295/293	40	313	1	8	18%	5%	68	-1.0	286/319/337	51	336	1	6	15%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Juan Diaz 2008 · A	19	40→50	35→45	36→45	43	190/250/251	61	261	2	5	27%	6%	43	-2.8	228/266/307	79	303	5	6	25%	5%	61	-1.5	258/295/352	94	339	7	7	25%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Eduardo Guerrero 2024 · A	19	41→51	35→30	44→50	48	192/252/250	58	236	2	7	19%	7%	44	-2.8	203/287/262	59	275	3	9	24%	10%	61	-1.5	212/303/269	57	287	3	10	25%	11%	67	-0.7
✕Alberth Palma 2024 · A	18	40→46	36→30	44→55	43	192/242/254	63	253	3	7	25%	6%	40	-3.0	209/283/254	45	257	1	19	17%	8%	57	-1.8	213/298/242	29	264	0	25	17%	10%	58	-0.9
✕Aderling Mejia 2011 · A	19	40→50	34→30	44→50	46	189/254/238	49	249	2	11	24%	7%	42	-2.9	220/269/269	49	260	2	11	15%	6%	53	-2.1	261/314/307	45	305	1	19	14%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Jose Garcia 2007 · A	19	39→49	35→40	41→55	44	184/239/243	59	224	2	8	19%	5%	37	-3.3	203/257/267	64	255	2	11	20%	6%	49	-2.4	253/296/322	69	311	5	22	19%	5%	73	-0.5
✕Herlis Rodriguez 2013 · A	19	40→50	37→45	39→50	42	194/239/265	71	248	4	5	23%	5%	41	-3.0	236/275/327	91	300	7	7	23%	5%	70	-0.9	247/287/347	101	294	10	10	19%	4%	77	-0.1
✕Antonis Macias 2024 · A	19	44→51	34→45	45	44	201/282/257	56	290	2	12	29%	8%	58	-1.7	223/308/294	71	307	3	7	26%	10%	76	-0.4	228/313/308	80	299	6	5	23%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Jean Estrella 2015 · A	19	45	34→30	39→45	45	212/269/258	46	280	2	9	24%	7%	51	-2.2	198/265/258	60	263	2	10	24%	7%	51	-2.3	154/233/187	34	197	0	13	20%	8%	22	-1.1
✕Ezequiel Pagan 2019 · A	19	43→53	36→45	42→50	41	197/260/261	65	310	3	8	35%	8%	49	-2.4	207/260/277	70	287	5	12	28%	6%	53	-2.1	242/295/347	105	295	9	9	20%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Andy Perez 2023 · A	19	43→53	35→45	46→50	43	200/239/258	58	239	2	11	17%	4%	40	-3.1	226/256/309	83	280	5	13	20%	3%	58	-1.7	251/279/356	104	308	8	17	21%	3%	74	-0.5
✕Andy Sugilio 2015 · A	18	41→50	34→40	43→50	42	195/239/245	50	256	2	7	24%	5%	36	-3.3	201/248/269	68	258	2	11	22%	6%	46	-2.6	237/265/316	79	302	5	15	23%	3%	60	-0.7
✕Danry Vasquez 2013 · A	19	41→51	38→40	46→45	38	201/238/273	72	257	5	5	24%	4%	42	-2.9	242/282/334	92	295	6	5	19%	5%	74	-0.6	243/287/338	95	286	7	14	17%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Leandro Pineda 2021 · A	19	36→46	35→50	44→45	45	173/242/228	54	227	3	6	24%	7%	36	-3.4	177/254/265	88	265	6	6	33%	8%	49	-2.4	218/291/356	137	276	14	5	25%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Bo Greenwell 2008 · A	19	41→51	35→45	44→50	45	195/250/249	54	254	2	8	23%	6%	42	-2.9	229/284/308	79	276	4	9	18%	7%	68	-1.0	263/311/350	86	318	5	12	18%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Luis Guillorme 2014 · A	19	46→56	34→40	45	48	214/267/263	50	254	2	8	16%	6%	52	-2.2	246/293/289	43	301	1	8	17%	6%	67	-1.1	277/347/351	74	322	5	4	14%	9%	99	+0.9
✕Carlos Tocci 2015 · A	19	45→55	35→40	42→45	39	212/253/273	61	275	2	7	23%	4%	49	-2.4	250/290/323	73	317	3	8	21%	4%	74	-0.6	266/308/338	72	332	3	8	20%	4%	81	-0.1
✕Shed Long Jr. 2015 · A	19	39→49	36→50	46→50	39	189/234/250	60	263	3	6	29%	5%	36	-3.3	227/283/347	120	309	12	9	29%	7%	78	-0.3	238/300/387	148	320	15	11	29%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Brady Whalen 2017 · A	19	41→49	38→45	45→40	47	195/253/274	79	237	6	5	20%	7%	50	-2.3	193/265/301	108	244	10	4	24%	8%	61	-1.5	220/273/344	123	268	13	7	22%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Branden Becker 2016 · A	19	42	34→40	39→30	46	198/251/246	49	244	2	5	19%	6%	42	-2.9	206/248/262	56	273	3	4	24%	4%	44	-2.8	223/258/277	54	303	4	1	27%	4%	48	-1.0

Daniel Hernandez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps