Fredderick Ovalle

2B Bradenton Marauders

Age 20 L/R 5'10" / 150 lbs A HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1293ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL Pirates G…	188	.285/.422/.411	1	27	57	—	.179/.289/.241
2026	19	A/ROKPIT	223	.228/.352/.283	1	13	53	—	.206/.298/.258
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBPIT	333	.217/.297/.297	3	8	71	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBPIT	62	.222/.302/.313	1	2	77	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBPIT	139	.226/.306/.325	2	3	81	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

K%90

Whiff%80

BB%78

Z-Con%78

Speed41

Chase%40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 3.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsLuis Durango (age 20) · Yoyner Fajardo (age 20) · Davis Bradshaw (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 130 proj PA

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .294 / .295

PA130

HR1

K%23

BB%9

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	ROK	DSL Pirates Gold	—	188	151	43	14	1	1	35	25	1	27	5	285	422	411	833	126	336	13	19	379	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	153	126	22	3	0	1	25	21	1	3	1	175	316	222	538	48	202	14	16	264	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	70	58	20	2	1	0	7	6	2	10	2	345	433	414	847	69	364	9	10	370	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	188	162	29	8	1	0	24	31	1	27	5	179	289	241	530	62	223	16	13	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	153	133	22	3	0	1	18	29	1	3	1	165	270	211	480	45	196	19	12	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	70	61	18	2	1	0	4	9	2	10	2	295	358	361	719	66	295	13	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	188	162	29	8	1	0	24	31	1	27	5	179	289	241	530	62	221	16	13	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	—	188	151	43	14	1	1	35	25	1	27	5	285	422	411	833	126	336	13	19	379	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	223	194	39	4	1	1	22	37	3	13	3	201	292	247	540	46	239	17	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	223	184	42	5	1	1	32	27	3	13	3	228	352	283	634	54	258	12	14	297	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	188	161	29	8	1	0	24	31	1	27	5	180	289	242	531	62	223	16	13	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	223	196	39	4	1	1	22	37	3	13	3	199	292	245	537	46	227	17	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	188	161	29	8	1	0	24	31	1	27	5	180	289	242	531	62	223	16	13	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	223	196	39	4	1	1	22	37	3	13	3	199	292	245	537	46	227	17	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PIT	0%	333	296	65	12	2	3	31	78	3	8	2	217	297	297	594	80	282	23	9	273	71	-12	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PIT	34%	181	160	35	6	1	2	17	42	2	4	1	222	302	314	616	92	284	23	9	282	77	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	PIT	48%	287	255	58	10	2	4	27	65	3	7	2	226	306	327	633	101	285	23	9	288	81	-6	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	PIT	54%	371	330	76	14	2	6	34	84	4	9	2	229	309	337	646	109	286	23	9	293	84	-7	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	427	380	88	16	3	7	40	96	4	11	2	231	311	345	656	114	288	22	9	297	87	-7	+1	+0	+2	+9	0.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	PIT	56%	455	406	94	17	3	8	42	102	4	11	2	232	312	350	662	118	288	22	9	299	89	-6	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.7
2033	26	MLB MLE	PIT	56%	472	420	98	18	3	9	44	106	5	11	2	232	312	350	662	118	288	22	9	299	89	-6	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	475	423	99	18	3	9	44	107	5	11	3	231	311	348	658	117	287	23	9	298	88	-7	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.6
2035	28	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	473	422	96	17	3	8	44	108	4	10	2	229	309	343	651	114	286	23	9	295	86	-8	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.5
2036	29	MLB MLE	PIT	53%	463	413	93	17	2	8	43	107	4	10	2	227	306	336	642	110	284	23	9	291	83	-9	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	PIT	53%	452	404	90	16	2	7	41	106	4	9	2	224	302	328	630	105	283	23	9	286	80	-11	+1	-2	+2	+10	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	PIT	34%	62	55	12	2	0	1	6	14	1	2	0	222	302	313	615	91	285	23	10	281	77	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	PIT	48%	139	124	28	5	1	2	13	32	1	3	1	226	306	325	631	100	286	23	9	287	81	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	PIT	54%	201	178	41	8	1	3	19	45	2	5	1	229	308	335	643	106	287	22	9	292	84	-4	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	237	211	48	9	1	4	22	53	2	6	1	231	310	342	652	111	288	22	9	296	87	-4	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	PIT	56%	255	227	53	10	2	4	24	57	2	6	1	232	311	347	658	115	289	22	9	298	89	-3	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	PIT	56%	265	235	55	10	2	5	25	60	3	6	1	232	311	347	658	115	288	23	9	298	89	-4	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	263	235	54	10	2	4	24	59	2	6	1	231	310	344	654	114	288	22	9	296	88	-4	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	259	231	52	10	1	4	24	59	2	6	1	229	308	340	648	111	287	23	9	294	86	-4	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	PIT	53%	247	220	49	9	1	4	23	57	2	5	1	226	305	334	639	107	285	23	9	290	83	-5	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	PIT	53%	238	212	48	9	1	4	22	56	2	5	1	223	302	326	627	103	283	24	9	285	80	-6	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2166	1928	440	82	12	35	202	492	19	50	9	228	308	338	645	109	287	23	9	293	82	-38	+6	-2	+8	+47	2.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	133	25	4	11	61	148	6	15	3	230	310	344	654	114	288	23	9	293	82	-11	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4597	4085	921	166	27	70	434	1021	44	136	29	225	307	331	637	105	282	22	9	289	82	-77	+11	-4	+15	+91	3.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	130	23	4	10	61	144	6	19	4	225	305	330	636	106	281	22	9	289	82	-12	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ABradenton Marauders · 153 PAwOBA .259 → .220 (−38)K% 13.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.73%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	18.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.34%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	11.78%
HBP% /PA	0.65%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.53%
Singles /BIP	17.14%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.024	×1.045	16.88%
Doubles /BIP	2.86%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.024	×1.045	2.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.024	×1.045	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.95%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.80%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .259 → .220; ISO .048 → .041; BABIP .202 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Pirates · 70 PAwOBA .378 → .304 (−74)K% 8.6% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.57%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	12.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	6.25%
HBP% /PA	2.86%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	2.07%
Singles /BIP	32.69%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.997	×1.008	26.92%
Doubles /BIP	3.85%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.997	×1.008	2.78%
Triples /BIP	1.92%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.997	×1.008	1.39%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .378 → .304; ISO .069 → .053; BABIP .364 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Pirates Gold · 188 PAwOBA .370 → .252 (−118)K% 13.3% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.30%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	16.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.62%	÷1.010	×0.700	—	×1.008	13.00%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.38%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷0.973	×0.680	×1.017	×1.008	15.33%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷1.061	×0.600	×1.017	×1.008	6.43%
Triples /BIP	0.79%	÷1.077	×0.600	×1.017	×1.008	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	0.79%	÷1.181	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.32%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 115, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .370 → .252; ISO .126 → .072; BABIP .336 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.5	2,297	38	53	229	305	340	+8	+6	3.6	3.4
/162	664	11	15	+2.4	+1.7	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
#5Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
#6Carlos Febles'98-'03 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,892 PA	2.8	1,892	24	68	239*	316*	342*	+6	-4	0.5	0.5
/162	664	8	24	+2.2	-1.5	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Fredderick Ovalle (OGILVIE)	20	50	25	60	60	215/294/295	79	282	1	3	23%	9%	71	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Durango 2023 · A	20	45	35→30	53→70	48	209/290/266	57	271	3	24	22%	8%	63	-1.4	216/288/274	58	294	2	32	25%	6%	63	-1.3	249/303/294	44	325	0	54	21%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2019 · A	20	46→56	37→40	57→60	51	211/279/293	82	248	2	14	16%	8%	63	-1.3	227/286/295	68	281	2	19	19%	6%	67	-1.1	260/318/350	90	329	5	34	21%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Davis Bradshaw 2019 · A	21	52	37→40	59→50	45	244/299/321	78	309	3	20	21%	6%	77	-0.3	225/271/288	63	293	2	11	23%	4%	59	-1.7	271/323/338	67	341	3	10	20%	5%	87	+0.2
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→51	39→45	59→55	46	195/272/287	91	280	4	17	30%	9%	60	-1.6	220/296/307	87	294	6	17	25%	9%	74	-0.6	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Jose Escobar 2024 · A	19	46→56	39→40	55→45	42	220/276/306	85	277	6	14	22%	5%	65	-1.2	227/297/326	99	296	8	9	24%	7%	78	-0.3	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2015 · A	20	42→52	40→45	53→55	45	203/259/306	103	252	5	11	21%	6%	59	-1.7	244/293/351	107	321	5	15	24%	6%	82	-0.0	254/307/364	110	341	6	19	26%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	48→58	38→30	56→70	48	226/293/312	85	299	4	17	24%	8%	73	-0.6	267/311/317	50	307	1	59	12%	6%	80	-0.2	302/334/348	46	335	0	63	9%	5%	94	+0.8
✕Brent Keys 2011 · A	21	48→58	35→30	49→50	51	225/292/282	57	274	2	12	18%	8%	66	-1.1	256/314/322	66	306	3	13	16%	7%	83	+0.1	282/343/338	56	313	2	12	10%	8%	94	+0.6
✕Edgar Rondon 2016 · A	21	46	37→40	52→50	48	213/291/294	80	278	3	12	23%	8%	69	-0.9	206/275/275	69	326	3	10	34%	7%	59	-1.7	169/246/196	27	334	0	12	45%	7%	28	-0.7
✕Forrest Wall 2016 · A	20	48→55	42→45	58→70	46	229/285/342	114	291	8	18	24%	7%	77	-0.3	223/277/319	96	299	8	18	26%	6%	69	-0.9	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2019 · A	20	46→55	36→45	50→60	46	216/276/285	69	264	2	13	18%	6%	61	-1.5	235/296/323	88	327	3	20	27%	7%	76	-0.4	253/316/355	102	332	7	33	24%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Luis Lara 2024 · A	19	46→56	36→40	52→60	49	218/283/285	67	271	3	18	20%	7%	63	-1.3	235/308/311	76	297	4	28	21%	8%	79	-0.2	245/323/325	80	308	5	31	20%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Luis Mendez 2013 · A	20	45	37→30	55→50	50	211/295/286	74	262	4	15	20%	8%	69	-0.9	212/273/273	61	282	2	13	24%	6%	57	-1.8	211/271/264	53	281	2	13	24%	6%	51	-1.1
✕Yeniel Laboy 2024 · A	20	43	37→30	52→45	47	200/283/268	68	287	5	8	29%	9%	61	-1.5	199/274/263	64	285	4	7	29%	8%	55	-1.9	166/248/183	18	241	0	3	28%	9%	26	-1.3
✕Yonny Hernández 2018 · A	20	44→54	34→30	53→60	56	199/285/252	53	230	1	20	13%	9%	57	-1.8	236/318/291	55	300	1	25	20%	9%	78	-0.3	266/328/324	58	317	2	17	16%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	46	37→45	47→55	56	216/300/287	72	267	3	12	19%	11%	71	-0.8	208/277/303	95	322	9	15	35%	8%	65	-1.2	191/260/285	94	305	11	18	38%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Matt Cerda 2010 · A	20	43→53	38→40	50→40	46	207/264/285	78	263	6	6	23%	7%	56	-1.9	239/314/318	79	300	3	4	19%	10%	82	+0.0	241/325/315	74	303	3	4	19%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Darryl Collins 2022 · A	20	45	38→40	50→45	51	212/292/289	77	265	5	11	21%	9%	68	-1.0	209/287/289	80	273	4	11	23%	9%	66	-1.1	198/286/277	79	269	1	9	24%	11%	64	-0.7
✕Candido Pimentel 2010 · A	20	45	35→30	53→55	54	207/295/272	65	273	2	17	23%	11%	65	-1.2	211/275/265	54	294	2	15	26%	8%	55	-1.9	234/284/275	41	327	1	17	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Carlos Mendoza 2021 · A	21	44→54	35→40	50→55	55	200/288/262	61	234	2	16	14%	9%	61	-1.5	237/339/304	67	299	3	14	19%	12%	90	+0.6	246/335/334	88	300	7	18	19%	10%	93	+0.6

Fredderick Ovalle

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps