Dariel Fregio — OGILVIE

Dariel Fregio P Erie SeaWolves

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 208 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%21.8%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	40	149	43	11	3	0%	1.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	2.7%	1.82	4.19	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	40	149	43	11	3	0%	1.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	2.7%	1.82	4.19	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	40	149	43	11	3	0%	1.5	28.9%	7.4%	21.5%	2.0%	1.82	2.75	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	38	4	68	297	75	26	10	11%	1.8	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	4.7%	4.76	5.27	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	38	4	68	297	75	26	10	11%	1.8	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	4.7%	4.76	5.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	DET	2	0	4	18	3	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2026	26	AA RAW	DET	32	4	58	256	64	24	10	12%	1.8	25.0%	9.4%	15.6%	3.9%	5.40	4.32	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	DET	4	0	6	23	8	2	0	0%	1.4	34.8%	8.7%	26.1%	0.0%	1.59	1.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	DET	62	0	66	277	61	28	8	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	3.0%	4.56	4.57	-0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	61	0	64	269	59	27	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.2%	11.7%	3.1%	4.60	4.64	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	DET	24	0	25	106	23	11	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	3.0%	4.56	4.57	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	36	0	38	160	35	16	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.2%	11.7%	3.1%	4.60	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	264	58	27	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.2%	11.7%	3.1%	4.58	4.23	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	86	26	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.2%	11.7%	3.1%	4.58	4.23	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		65	4	108	446	91	46	18	6%	1.7	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	4.0%	3.68	4.91	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	7	200	828	168	86	33	6%	1.7	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	4.0%	3.68	4.91	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dariel Fregio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	21.8%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.60	21.9%	11.7%	129	+0.04	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	86
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	85
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	84
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	84
Kyle Winkler R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	23.1%	8.7%	2.6%	.234	3.53	18.4%	8.3%	43	-0.17	2.97	114	82
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	651	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	82
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	81
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	22.0%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.82	4.73	183	81
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	81
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	81
Cale Coshow R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	26	SU	4.59	23.1%	10.9%	3.8%	.300	3.68	23.0%	12.8%	63	-0.91	3.08	377	80
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	80
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	80
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	80
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	21.9%	10.2%	1.19	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78