Juan Alva — OGILVIE

Juan AlvaIF FCL Marlins

Age 20 L/R 6'1" / 183 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION139 act + 14 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.154 / .214 / .154

PA14

HR0

K%21

BB%7

BABIP280

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	201	161	52	12	1	1	27	30	9	19	4	323	447	429	875	106	381	15	13	393	152	+12	+2	—	—	+4	1.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	172	46	9	1	1	16	42	9	19	4	267	360	349	709	81	316	21	8	306	93	-2	+2	—	—	+4	0.5
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	172	46	9	1	1	16	42	9	19	4	267	360	349	709	81	338	21	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	201	161	52	12	1	1	27	30	9	19	4	323	447	429	875	106	381	15	13	393	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	174	46	9	1	1	16	42	9	19	4	264	360	345	705	80	316	21	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	174	46	9	1	1	16	42	9	19	4	264	360	345	705	80	316	21	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	MIA	—	139	118	27	2	0	3	19	27	2	13	2	229	345	322	667	93	273	19	14	304	92	-1	+2	+0	+0	+3	0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	MIA	—	139	107	34	3	0	4	30	19	2	13	2	318	475	458	933	140	357	14	22	425	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	ROK MLE	MIA	0%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	154	214	154	368		287	21	7	285	79	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	20	ROK MLE	MIA	—	153	131	29	2	0	3	20	30	2	14	2	221	333	305	639	84	265	20	13	302	91	-2	+2	+0	+0	+3	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	247	219	50	8	1	4	23	56	3	7	1	228	310	329	639	100	290	23	9	295	86	-4	+1	+0	+0	+5	0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	362	320	76	12	2	7	34	82	5	9	2	237	320	353	673	116	291	23	9	300	89	-5	+1	+0	+0	+8	0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	438	388	91	15	2	8	41	98	6	11	2	235	317	345	663	111	292	22	9	303	91	-4	+1	+0	+0	+9	0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	489	434	103	17	2	10	46	109	6	12	2	237	319	355	674	118	293	22	9	305	93	-4	+2	+0	+0	+11	0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	518	457	108	18	2	10	49	116	7	13	2	236	320	350	670	114	293	22	9	306	93	-4	+2	+0	+0	+11	0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	533	470	112	18	3	11	51	119	7	13	2	238	322	360	682	121	293	22	10	306	93	-4	+2	+0	+0	+12	0.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	539	475	112	18	2	11	52	121	7	13	2	236	320	352	672	116	292	22	10	306	94	-4	+2	+0	+0	+12	1.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	538	474	112	18	2	11	52	121	7	13	2	236	321	352	673	116	292	22	10	305	93	-5	+2	-1	+0	+12	0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	530	466	109	18	2	10	52	120	7	12	2	234	320	345	665	112	291	23	10	304	92	-5	+2	-1	+0	+11	0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	521	458	107	17	2	10	51	120	7	12	2	234	320	345	665	111	290	23	10	301	90	-6	+2	-2	+0	+11	0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	508	446	102	16	2	9	50	118	7	11	2	229	316	334	650	105	288	23	10	297	87	-8	+1	-3	+0	+11	0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	490	433	97	15	2	8	48	116	6	10	2	224	310	323	633	99	285	24	10	291	83	-10	+1	-4	+0	+11	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	85	76	17	3	0	1	8	19	1	2	0	224	306	303	609	79	283	22	9	278	86	-1	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	175	154	35	5	1	3	17	40	2	5	1	227	312	331	643	104	284	23	10	283	89	-2	+1	+0	+0	+4	0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	238	211	47	7	1	4	22	53	3	6	1	223	305	322	627	100	284	22	9	286	91	-2	+1	+0	+0	+5	0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	271	239	55	9	1	5	26	61	4	7	1	230	316	339	655	109	285	23	10	288	93	-2	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	290	256	59	9	1	6	28	65	4	7	1	230	316	344	660	113	285	22	10	289	93	-2	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	300	264	61	9	1	6	29	67	4	7	1	231	316	341	657	110	285	22	10	289	93	-2	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	298	263	60	9	1	6	29	67	4	7	1	228	314	338	653	110	285	22	10	289	94	-2	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	295	260	60	9	1	6	29	66	4	7	1	231	317	342	660	112	284	22	10	288	93	-3	+1	-0	+0	+6	0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	283	249	57	9	1	5	28	64	4	7	1	229	317	333	650	104	284	23	10	287	92	-3	+1	-1	+0	+6	0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	274	241	54	8	1	5	27	63	4	6	1	224	312	328	640	104	283	23	10	284	90	-3	+1	-1	+0	+6	0.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	265	234	53	8	1	5	26	62	3	6	1	226	312	333	645	107	280	23	10	280	87	-4	+1	-1	+0	+6	0.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	275	242	53	8	1	4	27	65	4	6	1	219	308	310	618	91	277	24	10	275	83	-5	+1	-2	+0	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3049	2689	611	93	11	56	296	692	41	73	11	227	313	332	646	105	284	23	10	285	91	-34	+10	-6	+0	+66	3.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	130	20	2	12	63	148	9	16	2	227	313	332	645	105	284	23	10	285	91	-7	+2	-1	+0	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5928	5225	1227	199	25	110	566	1341	84	156	27	235	319	346	665	111	293	23	10	302	91	-64	+18	-10	+0	+124	6.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	135	22	3	12	62	147	9	17	3	236	320	347	667	112	294	23	10	302	91	-7	+2	-1	+0	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#2Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Delino DeShieldslast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,114 PA	3.2	2,114	19	111	246	327	342	+1	+6	5.3	5.3
/162	664	6	35	+0.4	+1.8	1.7	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.8	3,219	60	77	235	315	347	+0	+0	5.8	5.2
/162	664	12	16	+0.0	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 4
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Alva (OGILVIE)	20	55	25	60	50	223/308/308	85	287	2	7	23%	10%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	48	228/294/313	86	300	4	17	24%	8%	74	-0.5	270/314/320	50	311	1	59	13%	6%	82	-0.0	303/337/348	46	336	0	63	10%	5%	93	+0.8
✕Forrest Wall 2016 · A	20	47→55	42→45	57→70	46	225/280/336	111	286	8	18	24%	7%	74	-0.6	219/272/313	94	293	8	18	26%	6%	65	-1.2	253/326/354	101	349	8	50	27%	9%	92	+0.5
✕Davis Bradshaw 2019 · A	21	52	37→40	59→50	45	244/300/322	78	309	3	20	21%	6%	78	-0.3	225/271/287	62	293	2	11	23%	4%	59	-1.7	271/324/338	67	344	3	10	21%	5%	87	+0.2
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2019 · A	20	50→58	38→45	58→60	49	232/294/325	93	280	3	14	18%	7%	76	-0.4	234/293/308	74	292	3	19	19%	6%	72	-0.7	260/317/349	89	329	5	34	21%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→40	54→50	43	225/276/311	86	292	5	14	24%	6%	66	-1.1	253/298/346	93	309	6	11	19%	6%	82	+0.0	272/321/361	89	314	4	8	14%	6%	93	+0.7
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2016 · A	20	49	39→45	60→65	52	227/313/330	103	311	4	16	26%	10%	85	+0.2	205/272/294	89	330	6	26	36%	7%	61	-1.5	229/304/333	104	308	11	52	28%	9%	79	-0.1
✕L.J. Hoes 2009 · A	19	50→60	37→40	56→50	52	233/301/304	71	285	4	11	19%	9%	74	-0.6	238/285/305	67	306	4	12	22%	6%	68	-1.0	274/333/360	86	328	5	15	17%	7%	95	+0.9
✕Brandon Roberts 2006 · A	21	50→58	39→40	57→55	43	237/288/323	86	296	6	21	22%	5%	74	-0.6	250/297/316	66	309	4	22	19%	5%	75	-0.5	272/327/339	67	324	4	22	16%	5%	89	+0.3
✕Luis Durango 2023 · A	20	44	35→30	53→65	46	204/281/259	55	266	3	24	23%	7%	58	-1.7	214/284/271	57	295	2	32	26%	6%	61	-1.5	251/307/296	45	331	0	54	22%	4%	70	-0.3
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	52→60	40	56→55	48	248/308/348	100	311	7	17	22%	8%	87	+0.4	262/323/367	105	305	7	19	16%	7%	97	+1.1	262/330/356	94	300	7	20	14%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Candido Pimentel 2010 · A	20	48	36→30	54→55	51	223/302/295	72	308	3	17	26%	10%	73	-0.6	217/280/273	56	305	2	15	27%	8%	59	-1.7	238/288/280	42	332	1	17	27%	6%	59	-0.6
✕BJ Boyd 2014 · A	21	47→57	38→45	54→50	44	219/283/304	86	321	4	15	31%	8%	68	-1.0	222/271/300	78	291	5	10	24%	6%	61	-1.5	262/311/374	111	319	11	10	20%	5%	91	+0.4
✕Brent Keys 2011 · A	21	48→58	35→30	49→50	51	224/291/282	57	273	2	12	18%	8%	65	-1.2	256/314/322	66	306	3	13	16%	7%	82	+0.0	282/343/338	56	313	2	12	10%	8%	94	+0.6
●Mallex Smith 2013 · A	20	49→59	38→45	53→65	39	233/274/307	74	318	5	18	28%	5%	64	-1.3	245/310/323	78	323	4	41	23%	8%	82	-0.0	265/331/371	106	338	4	43	21%	8%	98	+0.8
✕Edgar Rondon 2016 · A	21	50	38→40	52→50	45	231/304/321	90	315	3	12	26%	7%	80	-0.2	213/282/287	74	343	3	10	36%	7%	64	-1.3	171/249/199	28	339	0	12	45%	7%	30	-0.7
✕Bryan Hudson 2016 · A	21	52	35→30	52→60	50	242/311/299	58	321	2	19	24%	9%	77	-0.3	218/293/269	51	329	2	25	31%	9%	63	-1.3	206/286/236	31	322	0	31	33%	10%	51	-1.1
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2014 · A	21	47→53	40→45	52→50	45	229/283/316	87	288	8	13	23%	6%	70	-0.8	239/293/345	106	290	8	10	19%	7%	80	-0.1	243/304/370	127	291	12	9	20%	7%	89	+0.4
●Ben Revere 2008 · A	20	51→61	37→40	58→65	45	235/286/320	85	278	2	18	16%	5%	72	-0.7	287/332/363	76	327	2	30	12%	5%	98	+1.2	301/347/367	66	339	2	36	11%	5%	101	+1.0
✕Victor Padron 2014 · A	20	53	34→30	51→55	48	246/298/292	46	299	1	18	18%	7%	70	-0.9	212/280/263	51	279	2	11	22%	9%	57	-1.8	181/284/202	20	234	0	10	20%	12%	45	-0.6
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2015 · A	20	43→53	40→45	54→55	44	206/262/313	106	260	6	11	22%	6%	61	-1.5	245/294/353	108	322	5	15	24%	6%	82	+0.0	254/307/365	110	342	6	19	26%	6%	89	+0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps