Juan Alva

IF FCL Marlins

Age 21 L/R 6'1" / 183 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1889ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKDSL Miami	201	.323/.447/.429	1	19	74	—	.224/.330/.282
2026	20	ROKMIA	139	.318/.475/.458	4	13	91	—	.227/.338/.319
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBMIA	249	.221/.298/.306	3	6	73	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBMIA	42	.218/.296/.305	1	1	77	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBMIA	97	.221/.298/.314	1	2	81	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wRC+92

Whiff%91

Z-Con%89

wOBA88

BB%87

K%86

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsLuis Ayala (age 21) · Jon Matthews (age 21) · Tirso Ornelas (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 72 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .296 / .303

PA72

HR1

K%25

BB%8

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	201	161	52	12	1	1	27	30	9	19	4	323	447	429	875	106	381	15	13	393	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	139	107	34	3	0	4	30	19	2	13	2	318	475	458	933	140	357	14	22	425	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	170	38	8	1	0	18	35	9	19	4	224	330	282	612	59	261	17	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	139	119	27	2	0	3	18	27	2	13	2	227	338	319	657	92	271	19	13	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	170	38	8	1	0	18	35	9	19	4	224	330	282	612	59	273	17	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	201	161	52	12	1	1	27	30	9	19	4	323	447	429	875	106	381	15	13	393	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	139	119	27	2	0	3	18	27	2	13	2	227	338	319	657	92	270	19	13	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	139	107	34	3	0	4	30	19	2	13	2	318	475	458	933	140	357	14	22	425	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	172	38	8	1	0	18	35	9	19	4	221	330	279	609	58	261	17	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	139	118	27	2	0	3	18	27	2	13	2	229	338	322	660	93	271	19	13	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	172	38	8	1	0	18	35	9	19	4	221	330	279	609	58	261	17	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	139	118	27	2	0	3	18	27	2	13	2	229	338	322	660	93	271	19	13	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	249	223	49	8	1	3	21	62	3	6	1	221	298	306	604	84	291	25	8	277	73	-8	+1	+0	+0	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	121	108	25	4	1	2	10	30	2	3	1	225	302	318	620	93	292	25	8	283	77	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	201	179	41	7	1	3	17	49	3	5	1	228	304	328	632	100	293	24	8	287	81	-5	+1	+0	+0	+4	0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	286	255	60	10	2	5	25	69	4	7	1	230	307	335	642	106	294	24	9	291	83	-6	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	346	309	71	12	2	6	30	83	4	8	2	231	308	341	649	110	294	24	9	294	85	-6	+1	+0	+0	+7	0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	380	339	78	13	2	7	33	91	5	9	2	232	308	345	653	113	293	24	9	296	86	-6	+1	+0	+0	+8	0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	394	352	81	14	2	7	34	95	5	9	2	231	307	342	650	111	293	24	9	294	85	-7	+1	+0	+0	+9	0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	399	357	82	14	2	7	34	97	5	9	2	229	305	337	643	109	292	24	9	291	83	-8	+1	-1	+0	+9	0.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	393	351	79	13	2	6	34	96	5	8	2	226	302	331	634	105	291	24	9	288	81	-9	+1	-1	+0	+9	-0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	385	345	77	13	2	6	33	96	4	8	2	223	299	323	622	100	289	25	9	283	78	-10	+1	-2	+0	+8	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	42	37	8	1	0	1	4	10	1	1	0	218	296	305	600	87	283	24	10	275	77	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	97	88	19	3	1	1	8	24	1	2	0	221	298	314	612	93	284	25	8	280	81	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	151	135	30	5	1	2	13	36	2	4	1	223	300	321	622	99	285	24	9	283	83	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	189	169	38	6	1	3	16	45	2	5	1	224	301	327	628	103	285	24	8	286	85	-3	+1	+0	+0	+4	0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	212	189	43	7	1	4	18	51	3	5	1	225	302	330	632	106	284	24	8	287	86	-3	+1	+0	+0	+5	0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	217	193	44	7	1	4	19	52	3	5	1	224	301	328	629	104	284	24	9	286	85	-4	+1	+0	+0	+5	0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	218	194	44	7	1	4	19	53	3	5	1	222	299	323	622	102	283	24	9	283	83	-4	+1	-0	+0	+5	0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	210	187	41	7	1	3	18	52	3	4	1	219	296	317	613	98	282	25	9	280	81	-5	+0	-1	+0	+5	-0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	202	181	39	6	1	3	17	50	2	4	1	217	293	310	602	93	280	25	8	275	78	-5	+0	-1	+0	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1538	1373	306	49	8	25	132	373	20	35	7	223	300	325	625	102	286	24	9	282	82	-32	+4	-2	+0	+33	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	130	21	3	11	56	158	8	15	3	224	301	328	629	103	287	24	9	282	82	-13	+2	-1	+0	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3317	2949	673	112	17	53	292	786	49	100	21	228	308	332	640	103	291	24	9	290	82	-62	+8	-4	+0	+65	0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	131	22	3	10	57	154	10	20	4	227	307	327	634	100	289	24	9	290	82	-14	+2	-1	+0	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Marlins · 139 PAwOBA .415 → .303 (−112)K% 13.7% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.67%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	19.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.58%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.995	13.31%
HBP% /PA	1.44%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	1.03%
Singles /BIP	30.68%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.950	×0.995	23.78%
Doubles /BIP	3.41%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×0.995	2.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.995	3.53%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .415 → .303; ISO .140 → .111; BABIP .357 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Miami · 201 PAwOBA .388 → .278 (−111)K% 14.9% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.93%	÷1.040	×1.220	—	—	17.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.44%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×0.995	8.85%
HBP% /PA	4.48%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	3.12%
Singles /BIP	29.01%	÷0.978	×0.680	×1.035	×0.995	20.77%
Doubles /BIP	9.16%	÷1.026	×0.600	×1.035	×0.995	5.52%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷1.088	×0.600	×1.035	×0.995	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	0.76%	÷1.423	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.25%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 185, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 118, K 108, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .388 → .278; ISO .106 → .063; BABIP .381 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Rene Gonzales'84-'97 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	19	23	236*	311*	337*	+4	+11	1.9	2.8
/162	664	7	9	+1.6	+4.2	0.7	pk7: 4
#5Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.4	1,609	26	37	229	302	336	+0	+0	1.5	1.5
/162	664	11	15	+0.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Phil Linz'62-'68 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,518 PA	2.3	1,518	11	13	238*	301*	338*	+10	-0	0.7	0.7
/162	664	5	6	+4.3	-0.2	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Alva (OGILVIE)	21	55	25	60	50	219/296/303	84	291	1	2	25%	8%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Ayala 2017 · A	21	42→50	35→40	54→55	44	195/257/257	63	271	2	19	27%	7%	47	-2.5	207/263/271	64	293	3	15	28%	6%	52	-2.2	203/261/260	57	287	2	16	28%	6%	47	-1.5
✕Jon Matthews 2012 · A	21	42	36→40	54→60	40	195/256/264	69	281	2	18	30%	6%	49	-2.4	204/264/275	71	290	4	23	29%	6%	54	-2.0	228/298/288	60	308	3	21	25%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Tirso Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	37→50	51→45	44	194/259/266	72	281	4	6	31%	8%	50	-2.3	230/293/336	106	308	8	6	26%	8%	79	-0.2	262/321/391	130	320	13	7	22%	7%	99	+1.1
✕Carlos Franco 2013 · A	21	41→49	37→45	49→45	46	195/264/270	75	273	5	9	29%	8%	53	-2.1	208/262/288	80	293	6	7	29%	7%	55	-1.9	214/266/324	110	318	13	2	35%	6%	64	-1.1
✕Joe Naranjo 2022 · A	21	43→48	38→40	50→45	41	200/265/272	71	308	5	7	35%	7%	54	-2.0	197/280/291	94	294	9	5	33%	10%	65	-1.2	183/272/272	89	271	9	3	33%	10%	55	-1.3
✕Dionis Paulino 2015 · A	21	40	36→40	51→50	48	189/267/252	64	257	3	15	26%	9%	51	-2.3	202/263/272	70	293	3	12	30%	7%	53	-2.1	206/248/291	84	301	9	11	33%	5%	47	-0.8
✕Francisco Guzman 2009 · A	21	44	34→30	51→60	45	207/258/258	51	260	2	17	20%	6%	47	-2.6	209/274/254	45	281	1	20	24%	8%	53	-2.1	206/279/234	28	278	0	26	23%	9%	48	-1.0
✕Lane Adams 2011 · A	21	43→45	37→50	57→60	40	204/256/278	73	298	4	14	31%	6%	51	-2.3	212/261/312	100	298	8	14	30%	6%	61	-1.5	224/277/350	126	304	14	36	30%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Darin Mastroianni 2009 · A	23	41→51	38→40	60	41	200/252/275	76	276	5	22	29%	6%	49	-2.4	251/316/325	74	320	3	35	21%	8%	84	+0.2	261/328/336	76	325	2	38	19%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Shard Munroe 2017 · A	21	39	36→40	58→50	51	184/262/257	74	236	3	16	22%	9%	49	-2.4	195/264/288	93	277	8	13	30%	8%	57	-1.8	173/247/267	94	252	9	14	33%	8%	45	-0.9
✕Donald Lutz 2010 · A	21	39→49	39→50	50→45	40	192/244/278	86	264	5	8	29%	6%	47	-2.5	217/263/341	124	299	13	6	31%	5%	69	-0.9	217/262/369	152	289	16	8	30%	4%	73	-0.4
✕Matt McPhearson 2015 · A	20	45→52	33→30	55	41	201/267/240	40	322	1	22	35%	8%	47	-2.5	204/262/246	42	319	1	26	34%	7%	46	-2.6	214/264/256	42	321	0	31	31%	6%	45	-1.1
✕Marty Herum 2014 · A	22	45→54	36→45	50→45	43	210/268/278	68	301	3	7	30%	7%	56	-1.9	237/265/322	85	296	6	4	21%	3%	64	-1.3	259/291/356	98	314	8	4	20%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Alexis Rivera 2015 · A	21	42	37→45	49→50	40	202/256/274	73	289	5	11	31%	6%	51	-2.3	219/266/330	111	298	11	9	29%	5%	67	-1.1	229/272/355	125	296	13	7	27%	5%	72	-0.3
●Juan Lagares 2010 · A	21	46→56	37→45	48→50	36	219/249/291	72	295	4	11	27%	4%	51	-2.3	261/287/367	106	326	7	15	21%	3%	82	+0.0	276/309/387	111	347	6	13	22%	4%	93	+0.7
✕Michael Beltre 2015 · A	20	40→50	35→45	50→60	43	187/269/245	58	279	2	12	31%	8%	51	-2.3	200/263/276	76	291	4	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	224/296/341	118	306	9	22	28%	9%	78	-0.2
●Leandro Castro 2010 · A	21	41→51	38→50	49→50	41	198/243/278	80	250	6	13	23%	5%	47	-2.6	225/257/343	118	273	10	12	21%	3%	66	-1.1	244/286/388	144	268	16	11	16%	5%	85	+0.2
●Bryan Torres 2017 · A	20	43→53	35→40	52→55	52	194/258/253	59	223	2	11	14%	7%	47	-2.6	204/256/267	63	234	3	9	13%	6%	49	-2.4	286/363/377	92	349	7	27	18%	10%	112	+1.6
✕Will Kengor 2015 · A	23	44→54	35→30	48→40	45	204/260/269	64	273	2	8	25%	7%	51	-2.3	228/291/293	65	336	2	5	30%	8%	68	-1.0	242/308/298	56	362	1	3	30%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Victor Cruzado 2013 · A	21	39→48	36→40	47→45	52	184/266/256	71	244	3	10	24%	10%	51	-2.3	218/286/313	95	287	6	6	24%	8%	71	-0.8	223/291/325	102	293	6	4	24%	8%	74	-0.3

Juan Alva

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps