Juan Alva — OGILVIE

Juan AlvaIF FCL Marlins

Age 20 L/R 6'1" / 183 lbs ROK HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION123 act + 82 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .305 / .301

PA82

HR1

K%23

BB%10

BABIP283

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.5M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$23M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	201	172	46	9	1	0	16	40	9	19	4	267	360	331	692	64	338	20	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	201	161	52	12	1	1	27	30	9	19	4	323	447	429	875	106	381	15	13	393	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	MIA	—	123	104	23	2	0	3	17	24	2	13	2	221	341	327	668	106	260	20	14	310	95	-1	+2	+0	+0	+3	0.5
YTD	20	ROK	MIA	—	123	93	29	3	0	4	28	17	2	13	2	312	480	473	953	161	347	14	23	432	188	+12	+2	+0	+0	+3	1.8
ROS	20	ROK	MIA	0%	82	73	16	3	0	1	8	19	1	4	1	219	305	301	606	82	285	23	10	285	76	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
ROS	20	MLB	MIA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		280	—	—	270	65	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	MIA	—	123	105	23	2	0	3	17	24	2	13	2	219	341	324	665	105	256	20	14	310	95	-1	+2	+0	+0	+3	0.5
TOT	20	ROK	MIA	—	205	177	39	5	0	4	25	43	3	17	3	220	327	316	643	96	269	21	12	300	88	-3	+2	+0	+0	+6	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	249	219	50	8	1	4	24	57	4	7	1	228	316	329	645	100	289	23	10	295	84	-5	+1	+0	+0	+7	0.4
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	363	320	75	12	2	7	35	83	5	10	2	234	319	350	669	116	290	23	10	300	88	-5	+1	+0	+0	+10	0.7
2029	23	MLB	MIA	54%	439	388	91	15	2	9	42	100	6	11	2	235	319	353	672	119	291	23	10	303	90	-5	+1	+0	+0	+12	0.9
2030	24	MLB	MIA	55%	490	433	102	17	2	10	47	111	7	12	2	236	320	353	674	118	292	23	10	305	92	-4	+2	+0	+0	+14	1.1
2031	25	MLB	MIA	56%	518	456	109	18	3	11	50	117	7	13	2	239	324	364	688	125	292	23	10	306	92	-4	+2	+0	+0	+15	1.2
2032	26	MLB	MIA	56%	534	470	111	18	3	11	51	120	8	13	2	236	321	357	679	121	292	22	10	306	93	-4	+2	+0	+0	+15	1.3
2033	27	MLB	MIA	55%	539	474	113	19	3	11	52	122	8	13	2	238	324	361	685	122	292	23	10	306	93	-4	+2	+0	+0	+15	1.3
2034	28	MLB	MIA	55%	538	472	110	18	2	11	53	122	8	13	2	233	321	350	670	117	291	23	10	305	92	-5	+2	-1	+0	+15	1.2
2035	29	MLB	MIA	53%	530	466	108	18	2	10	52	122	7	12	2	232	318	343	661	112	290	23	10	303	90	-6	+2	-1	+0	+15	1.0
2036	30	MLB	MIA	53%	521	458	105	17	2	10	51	121	7	12	2	229	316	341	657	111	289	23	10	301	88	-7	+2	-2	+0	+15	0.7
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	86	77	17	3	0	1	8	20	1	2	0	221	302	299	601	78	284	23	9	281	73	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.0
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	176	155	36	6	1	3	17	40	2	5	1	232	316	342	658	110	285	23	10	286	77	-5	+1	+0	+0	+5	0.1
2029	23	MLB	MIA	54%	238	210	49	8	1	5	23	54	3	6	1	233	318	352	670	119	286	23	10	289	79	-6	+1	+0	+0	+7	0.2
2030	24	MLB	MIA	55%	272	240	55	9	1	5	26	62	4	7	1	229	315	338	652	108	287	23	10	291	81	-6	+1	+0	+0	+8	0.3
2031	25	MLB	MIA	56%	290	256	59	10	1	6	28	65	4	7	1	230	316	348	664	117	287	22	10	292	81	-6	+1	+0	+0	+8	0.3
2032	26	MLB	MIA	56%	300	264	61	10	1	6	29	68	4	7	1	231	316	345	661	114	287	23	10	292	81	-6	+1	+0	+0	+8	0.3
2033	27	MLB	MIA	55%	298	263	60	10	1	6	29	67	4	7	1	228	314	342	656	114	287	22	10	292	81	-6	+1	+0	+0	+8	0.3
2034	28	MLB	MIA	55%	295	260	60	10	1	6	29	67	4	7	1	231	317	346	664	115	286	23	10	291	81	-6	+1	-0	+0	+8	0.3
2035	29	MLB	MIA	53%	283	249	56	9	1	5	28	65	4	7	1	225	313	329	642	104	285	23	10	289	79	-7	+1	-1	+0	+8	0.2
2036	30	MLB	MIA	53%	274	241	55	9	1	5	27	64	4	6	1	228	316	336	652	108	284	23	10	286	77	-7	+1	-1	+0	+8	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2512	2216	508	84	9	48	244	572	34	61	9	229	315	340	656	111	286	23	10	290	80	-57	+9	-2	+0	+71	2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	131	22	2	12	63	148	9	16	2	229	315	337	652	108	286	23	10	290	80	-15	+2	-1	+0	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	5004	4401	1036	172	23	95	481	1134	77	139	24	235	321	350	671	114	294	23	10	304	91	-53	+18	-4	+0	+142	10.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	134	22	3	12	62	147	10	18	3	234	320	346	666	112	293	23	10	304	91	-7	+2	-1	+0	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	201	161	52	12	1	1	27	30	9	19	4	323	447	429	875	106	381	15	13	393	159	+13	+2	—	—	+6	2.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	9	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
	/162	664	13	8	246	327	370	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#2Desi Relafordlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,443 PA	6	2,443	34	64	246	329	356	-1	-7	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	9	17	246	329	356	-0.3	-1.8	1.4	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,684	51	66	235	316	350	+0	+0	5.3	4.8
	/162	664	13	16	235	316	350	+0.0	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#6Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Alva (OGILVIE)	20	55	25	60	50	220/327/316	96	269	4	17	21%	12%	88	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	49	228/296/314	87	301	4	17	24%	8%	72	-0.2	265/309/316	51	306	1	59	13%	6%	76	+0.0	299/334/350	51	335	0	65	10%	5%	92	+0.9
✕Davis Bradshaw 2019 · A	21	52	37→40	59→50	45	244/300/322	78	309	3	20	21%	6%	75	-0.0	224/270/287	63	290	2	11	22%	4%	53	-1.5	270/323/338	69	342	4	10	21%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2019 · A	20	50→58	38→45	58→60	49	232/294/325	93	280	3	14	18%	7%	73	-0.1	235/293/308	73	293	3	19	19%	6%	68	-0.5	259/317/353	94	332	5	34	22%	7%	85	+0.4
✕Forrest Wall 2016 · A	20	47→57	41→45	58→70	45	224/278/332	108	284	7	18	23%	7%	68	-0.5	218/270/312	94	295	8	18	27%	6%	60	-1.0	266/338/377	110	363	9	50	27%	9%	101	+1.1
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2016 · A	20	49	39→45	60→65	52	227/313/330	103	311	4	16	26%	10%	83	+0.6	207/274/300	93	331	6	26	36%	7%	59	-1.1	227/303/343	115	312	13	52	29%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Brandon Roberts 2006 · A	21	50→57	39→40	57→55	43	237/288/323	86	296	6	21	22%	5%	70	-0.3	250/296/316	66	310	4	22	20%	5%	72	-0.2	271/325/342	72	323	5	22	17%	5%	88	+0.5
✕Candido Pimentel 2010 · A	20	48	36→30	54→55	51	223/302/295	72	308	3	17	26%	10%	69	-0.4	217/280/273	56	305	2	15	27%	8%	53	-1.5	241/290/282	41	339	1	17	27%	6%	55	-0.5
✕BJ Boyd 2014 · A	21	47→56	38→45	54→50	44	219/283/304	86	321	4	15	31%	8%	63	-0.8	226/274/301	75	297	4	10	24%	6%	58	-1.2	263/312/378	116	318	12	10	20%	6%	92	+0.7
●L.J. Hoes 2009 · A	19	50→60	37→40	56→50	52	233/301/304	71	285	4	11	19%	9%	70	-0.3	238/285/305	67	306	4	12	22%	6%	64	-0.8	278/336/369	91	334	5	15	17%	7%	97	+1.5
●Mallex Smith 2013 · A	20	49→59	38→45	53→65	39	233/274/307	74	318	5	18	28%	5%	59	-1.1	241/310/321	80	319	5	41	24%	8%	79	+0.3	270/333/370	100	351	5	52	23%	8%	97	+1.1
✕Brent Keys 2011 · A	21	48→58	35→30	49→50	51	224/291/282	57	273	2	12	18%	8%	61	-1.0	252/311/316	64	304	3	13	17%	7%	78	+0.2	277/340/332	55	310	2	12	10%	8%	90	+0.7
✕Victor Padron 2014 · A	20	53	34→30	51→55	48	246/298/292	46	299	1	18	18%	7%	66	-0.6	212/280/263	51	279	2	11	22%	9%	52	-1.6	181/284/202	20	234	0	10	20%	12%	37	-0.6
✕Carlos Rodríguez 2022 · A	21	48→58	35→40	50	44	223/276/288	65	306	2	14	26%	7%	56	-1.3	244/300/330	86	315	4	15	22%	7%	77	+0.1	266/324/354	88	323	4	16	17%	7%	89	+0.6
✕Eury Pérez 2009 · A	19	47→57	37→40	54→65	47	223/297/296	73	290	5	20	23%	8%	68	-0.5	259/303/332	73	320	4	28	19%	5%	78	+0.2	296/331/390	95	359	3	37	18%	4%	102	+0.6
●Eliezer Álvarez 2015 · A	20	43→53	40→45	54→55	44	206/262/313	106	260	6	11	22%	6%	56	-1.3	245/295/352	107	322	5	15	24%	6%	81	+0.4	254/308/362	108	342	5	19	26%	6%	87	+0.4
●Ben Revere 2008 · A	20	51→61	37→40	58→65	45	235/286/320	85	278	2	18	16%	5%	68	-0.5	286/330/362	76	326	2	30	12%	5%	97	+1.5	298/344/366	68	335	2	36	11%	5%	100	+1.3
✕Edgar Rondon 2016 · A	21	50	38→40	52→50	45	231/304/321	90	315	3	12	26%	7%	77	+0.1	213/282/287	74	343	3	10	36%	7%	59	-1.1	171/249/199	28	339	0	12	45%	7%	20	-0.7
✕Charlie Tilson 2014 · A	21	53→60	39→40	52→55	42	253/288/336	83	312	6	11	21%	4%	72	-0.2	255/293/348	93	321	6	18	21%	5%	78	+0.2	261/302/356	95	324	6	22	20%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Julio Francisco 2018 · A	20	50	36→40	57→55	49	230/285/310	80	264	1	16	13%	6%	65	-0.7	222/272/298	76	267	2	14	17%	6%	56	-1.3	222/264/293	70	262	0	21	14%	4%	46	-0.6
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→45	54→50	43	225/276/311	86	292	5	14	24%	6%	62	-0.9	252/298/346	94	308	6	11	19%	6%	80	+0.4	274/322/369	95	316	5	8	14%	6%	95	+1.2