Brent Francisco — OGILVIE

Brent Francisco P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 25 RHP 6'7" / 250 lbs A peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.69

FIP3.69

K%24.4%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%18.9%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	30	119	43	4	0	0%	1.6	25.5%	4.1%	21.4%	0.0%	1.50	1.46	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	30	119	43	4	0	0%	1.6	25.5%	4.1%	21.4%	0.0%	1.50	1.46	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	30	119	43	4	0	0%	1.6	36.1%	3.4%	32.8%	0.0%	1.50	0.63	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	37	1	64	284	60	17	10	3%	1.7	15.8%	7.0%	8.9%	4.5%	5.88	5.09	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	37	1	64	284	60	17	10	3%	1.7	15.8%	7.0%	8.9%	4.5%	5.88	5.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	MIN	27	0	44	182	42	8	3	0%	1.6	23.1%	4.4%	18.7%	1.6%	4.95	2.61	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	MIN	10	1	21	102	18	9	7	10%	2.1	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	6.9%	7.84	6.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIN	60	0	63	266	65	16	8	0%	1.1	24.6%	5.9%	18.7%	2.9%	3.74	3.73	+0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	59	0	62	262	64	16	8	0%	1.1	24.4%	6.2%	18.2%	2.9%	3.80	3.81	+0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIN	26	0	27	114	28	7	3	0%	1.0	24.6%	5.9%	18.7%	2.9%	3.74	3.73	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	37	0	39	165	40	10	5	0%	1.1	24.4%	6.2%	18.2%	2.9%	3.80	3.81	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	278	68	17	8	0%	1.0	24.5%	6.1%	18.4%	2.9%	3.78	3.40	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	206	52	24	0%	1.1	24.5%	6.1%	18.4%	2.9%	3.78	3.40	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		56	1	94	403	75	25	13	2%	1.7	18.7%	6.1%	12.6%	3.1%	4.48	4.02	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	2	200	854	160	52	27	2%	1.7	18.7%	6.1%	12.6%	3.1%	4.48	4.02	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brent Francisco (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.69	24.4%	5.5%	2.9%	—	3.77	24.5%	18.5%	125	+0.08	—	—	—
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	85
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	84
Joe Navilhon R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	24.1%	5.5%	2.9%	.333	3.13	22.5%	15.1%	110	-0.23	2.25	273	84
Deolis Guerra R 2015 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	23.5%	4.9%	3.2%	.291	3.65	21.9%	15.7%	179	+0.17	2.53	364	81
Hobie Harris R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	25	SU	3.31	23.8%	5.4%	2.8%	.283	4.96	23.0%	9.2%	92	+1.65	3.31	474	81
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	81
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	81
James Farris R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	25	SU	3.77	24.4%	6.6%	3.5%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	170	81
Travis Hissong R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	25	SU	3.01	23.6%	4.9%	2.3%	.256	4.17	20.3%	6.8%	50	+1.16	3.01	122	80
Jason Jester R 2016 · 2.80 FIP	25	SU	2.80	22.8%	4.9%	1.8%	.350	3.96	14.6%	7.2%	127	+1.16	2.48	229	80
Sauryn Lao R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	23	SU	3.31	23.8%	5.2%	2.9%	.367	3.28	20.0%	12.9%	128	-0.03	3.11	182	79
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	79
Josh Lucas R 2016 · 3.07 FIP	25	SU	3.07	22.8%	4.6%	2.4%	.296	3.58	20.8%	12.3%	155	+0.51	2.40	264	79
Ryan Walker R 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SU	3.35	25.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.347	2.78	28.6%	20.0%	207	-0.57	2.05	432	79
Michael Tonkin R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	25	SU	3.09	23.8%	4.9%	2.5%	.240	3.77	27.2%	18.6%	134	+0.68	2.31	480	79
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	78
Michael Dimock R 2015 · 3.08 FIP	25	SU	3.08	25.1%	2.3%	3.3%	.291	3.83	23.2%	13.8%	106	+0.75	3.08	166	78
Danny Barnes R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	25	SU	3.18	22.9%	7.1%	2.0%	.355	3.38	24.9%	17.6%	182	+0.20	1.75	243	78
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	77
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	24.5%	6.0%	1.12	3.76
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61