Jack Nedrow

P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 24 RHP A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX3 levels	22	8	83	5.01	4.33	17.6%	9.1%	—	K 12.8% · BB 10.8% · FIP 5.45
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	52	0	55	5.30	5.30	15.2%	10.6%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTOR	30	0	32	5.10	5.03	17.3%	10.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBTOR	48	0	50	4.96	4.90	18.5%	9.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMatt Marsh (age 24) · Danny Kirwin (age 24) · Dakota Hawkins (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%15.2%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	8	83	352	62	32	10	36%	3.8	12.8%	10.8%	2.0%	3.8%	5.01	5.45	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	8	83	352	62	32	10	36%	3.8	12.8%	10.8%	2.0%	3.8%	5.01	5.45	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	8	83	352	62	32	10	36%	3.8	17.6%	9.1%	8.5%	2.8%	5.01	4.33	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	52	0	55	232	35	25	7	0%	1.1	15.2%	10.6%	4.7%	3.2%	5.30	5.30	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	72	0	75	318	55	32	10	0%	1.0	17.3%	10.0%	7.3%	3.2%	5.10	5.03	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	72	0	75	318	59	31	10	0%	1.0	18.5%	9.8%	8.7%	3.2%	4.96	4.90	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	71	0	74	313	59	31	10	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	3.2%	4.92	4.91	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	69	0	72	304	57	30	10	0%	1.0	18.8%	10.0%	8.7%	3.3%	4.95	4.98	-0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	66	0	69	290	54	30	10	0%	1.0	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	3.5%	5.05	5.11	-0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	62	0	65	273	50	29	10	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.5%	7.6%	3.7%	5.19	5.29	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	30	0	32	135	23	13	4	0%	1.1	17.3%	10.0%	7.3%	3.2%	5.10	5.03	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	48	0	50	211	39	21	7	0%	1.0	18.5%	9.8%	8.7%	3.2%	4.96	4.90	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	54	0	57	241	45	24	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	3.2%	4.92	4.91	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	58	0	61	258	48	26	9	0%	1.1	18.8%	10.0%	8.7%	3.3%	4.95	4.98	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	57	0	60	253	47	26	9	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	3.5%	5.05	5.11	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	55	0	58	245	44	26	9	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.5%	7.6%	3.7%	5.19	5.29	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		303	0	318	1344	248	136	45	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.1%	8.3%	3.3%	5.02	4.66	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	85	28	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.1%	8.3%	3.3%	5.02	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		22	8	83	352	45	38	13	36%	3.8	12.8%	10.8%	2.0%	3.8%	5.01	5.45	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	19	200	852	109	92	32	36%	3.8	12.8%	10.8%	2.0%	3.8%	5.01	5.45	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Nedrow (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	15.2%	10.6%	3.2%	—	4.95	18.2%	8.3%	225	-0.35	—	—	—
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	87
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	85
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	84
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	84
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	82
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	82
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	82
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	82
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	82
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	81
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	80
Sergio Mitre R 2005 · 5.18 FIP	24	SW	5.18	13.8%	7.8%	4.1%	.256	3.84	13.0%	6.6%	190	-1.34	3.55	602	80
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	80
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.25	15.1%	3.8%	163	+0.75	2.59	367	79
Felipe Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.47 FIP	24	SP-	5.47	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	.330	4.12	19.9%	10.4%	139	-1.35	3.27	339	79
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	79
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	79
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	78
Chad Bettis R 2013 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	14.4%	8.7%	2.6%	.318	3.81	17.4%	10.4%	365	-0.57	3.67	672	78
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	69	18.0%	10.1%	1.28	5.06
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*