Bryce Alewine — OGILVIE

Bryce Alewine P FCL Tigers

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%19.5%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	14	4	30	131	23	14	1	29%	2.2	11.9%	13.4%	-1.4%	1.2%	2.08	4.45	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	14	4	30	131	23	14	1	29%	2.2	11.9%	13.4%	-1.4%	1.2%	2.08	4.45	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	14	4	30	131	23	14	1	29%	2.2	17.6%	10.7%	6.9%	0.8%	2.08	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	1	32	163	24	27	4	4%	1.4	10.4%	20.1%	-9.8%	3.3%	6.40	6.56	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	1	32	163	24	27	4	4%	1.4	10.4%	20.1%	-9.8%	3.3%	6.40	6.56	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	DET	14	1	20	99	14	14	1	7%	1.4	14.1%	14.1%	0.0%	1.0%	4.95	4.25	—
2026	21	A RAW	DET	9	0	12	64	10	13	3	0%	1.4	15.6%	20.3%	-4.7%	4.7%	8.76	6.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	32	0	33	141	29	15	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.9%	10.0%	2.9%	4.78	4.68	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	DET	15	0	16	68	14	7	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.9%	10.0%	2.9%	4.78	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	16	69	14	8	2	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.9%	10.0%	2.9%	4.78	4.30	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	98	24	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.9%	10.0%	2.9%	4.78	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		37	5	63	294	33	50	7	14%	1.7	11.1%	17.1%	-6.0%	2.3%	4.31	5.62	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	16	200	938	104	161	22	14%	1.7	11.1%	17.1%	-6.0%	2.3%	4.31	5.62	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Alewine (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	19.5%	12.2%	2.9%	—	4.68	21.0%	10.0%	33	-0.32	—	—	—
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	88
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	87
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Austin Mason R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	87
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	86
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	85
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	85
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	85
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	85
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	85
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	85
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	85
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	523	85
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	85
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	85
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	84
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.4%	11.4%	1.12	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19