Jose Lopez

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	9	1	17	2.65	3.22	23.5%	10.3%	—	K 16.0% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.51
2025	21	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	10	8	20	5.75	3.64	17.9%	15.8%	—	K 12.2% · BB 19.7% · FIP 4.57
2026	22	MIX2 levels	18	8	61	6.82	6.03	19.6%	15.7%	—	K 14.0% · BB 18.9% · FIP 7.46
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYM	30	0	31	6.05	6.05	17.3%	17.6%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYM	23	0	24	5.68	5.55	19.0%	15.1%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYM	36	0	38	5.37	5.23	20.0%	13.4%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRadhames Liz (age 23) · Seth McClung (age 22) · Wills Montgomerie (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.05

FIP6.05

K%17.3%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%-0.4%

Proj IP31

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	9	1	17	68	16	7	1	11%	1.9	16.0%	12.9%	3.1%	2.1%	2.65	4.51	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	9	1	17	68	16	7	1	11%	1.9	16.0%	12.9%	3.1%	2.1%	2.65	4.51	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	9	1	17	68	16	7	1	11%	1.9	23.5%	10.3%	13.2%	1.5%	2.65	3.22	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	8	20	95	17	15	0	80%	2.0	12.2%	19.7%	-7.6%	0.0%	5.75	4.57	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	8	20	95	17	15	0	80%	2.0	12.2%	19.7%	-7.6%	0.0%	5.75	4.57	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	10	8	20	95	17	15	0	80%	2.0	17.9%	15.8%	2.1%	0.0%	5.75	3.64	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	61	281	55	44	12	44%	3.4	14.0%	18.9%	-4.9%	5.7%	6.82	7.46	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	61	281	55	44	12	44%	3.4	14.0%	18.9%	-4.9%	5.7%	6.82	7.46	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	8	61	281	55	44	12	44%	3.4	19.6%	15.7%	3.9%	4.3%	6.82	6.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYM	30	0	31	131	23	23	4	0%	1.0	17.3%	17.6%	-0.4%	3.3%	6.05	6.05	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	53	0	56	236	45	36	8	0%	1.1	19.0%	15.1%	3.9%	3.2%	5.68	5.55	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	54	0	57	239	48	32	8	0%	1.1	20.0%	13.4%	6.6%	3.2%	5.37	5.23	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	23	0	24	101	19	15	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	15.1%	3.9%	3.2%	5.68	5.55	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	36	0	38	160	32	22	5	0%	1.1	20.0%	13.4%	6.6%	3.2%	5.37	5.23	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	260	51	37	8	0%	1.0	19.6%	14.1%	5.6%	3.2%	5.49	4.97	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	120	26	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.1%	5.6%	3.2%	5.49	4.97	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		37	17	98	444	62	81	18	46%	2.6	13.9%	18.2%	-4.3%	3.9%	5.88	6.39	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	35	200	906	126	165	36	46%	2.6	13.9%	18.2%	-4.3%	3.9%	5.88	6.39	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.05	17.3%	17.6%	3.3%	—	5.39	19.5%	5.3%	113	-0.66	—	—	—
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	89
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	84
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	83
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	82
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	79
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	79
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	78
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	78
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	77
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	77
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	77
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	76
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	76
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	76
Kevin Valdez R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	.188	4.97	16.0%	3.2%	189	+0.10	3.46	263	76
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	75
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	75
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	75
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	19.0%	15.0%	1.24	5.64
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*