Ethan Conrad — OGILVIE

Ethan ConradOF Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 23 L/L A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 137 proj PA

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .282 / .356

PA137

HR3

K%27

BB%7

ISO135

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 52 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT52

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	123	110	27	5	2	4	13	25	0	0	0	245	325	436	762	191	284	20	11	338	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	21	17	7	1	0	1	2	2	1	1	0	412	476	647	1.123	235	429	10	10	477	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	123	114	23	4	2	3	9	34	0	0	0	202	260	351	611	149	249	28	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	21	19	6	1	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	316	381	526	907	211	330	14	5	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	144	133	29	5	2	4	10	37	1	1	0	218	278	376	654	158	272	26	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	144	127	34	6	2	5	15	27	1	1	0	268	347	465	812	197	305	19	10	358	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	144	132	29	5	2	4	10	37	1	1	0	220	278	379	657	159	261	26	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	144	132	29	5	2	4	10	37	1	1	0	220	278	379	657	159	261	26	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CHC	0%	254	233	52	9	2	6	17	70	2	4	1	224	284	359	643	135	291	28	7	287	80	-6	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CHC	30%	211	192	43	7	2	5	15	57	2	4	1	227	287	365	651	138	292	27	7	290	83	-4	+0	-0	-1	+5	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CHC	44%	299	274	64	11	3	8	21	80	2	6	2	228	289	368	657	140	292	27	7	293	84	-6	+0	-0	-2	+6	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	CHC	51%	359	327	75	13	3	9	26	96	3	7	2	229	290	371	661	142	291	27	7	294	85	-6	+1	-0	-2	+8	-0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	CHC	52%	390	356	81	14	3	10	28	104	3	8	3	229	291	370	661	141	291	27	7	294	85	-7	+0	-0	-2	+8	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	CHC	53%	407	371	84	15	3	10	30	108	3	8	3	228	290	367	658	140	290	27	7	293	84	-8	+0	-1	-2	+9	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	CHC	53%	410	374	84	14	3	10	30	110	3	8	3	225	287	361	648	136	288	27	7	289	82	-9	+0	-2	-2	+9	-0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	CHC	52%	409	374	83	14	3	10	29	111	3	7	3	222	284	353	637	131	286	27	7	285	79	-10	+0	-3	-2	+9	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	CHC	30%	63	59	13	2	1	1	4	17	0	1	0	229	289	368	657	139	296	27	6	292	83	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	CHC	44%	132	121	27	5	1	3	9	35	1	3	1	230	291	372	662	142	296	27	7	295	84	-2	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	CHC	51%	182	166	38	7	2	4	13	48	1	4	1	231	292	374	666	143	295	26	7	296	85	-3	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	CHC	52%	204	185	43	8	2	5	15	54	2	4	1	231	293	373	665	142	295	26	7	296	85	-4	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	CHC	53%	217	197	45	8	2	5	16	58	2	4	1	230	292	370	662	140	294	27	7	295	84	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	CHC	53%	215	195	45	8	2	5	16	58	2	4	2	227	289	364	653	137	292	27	7	291	82	-5	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	CHC	52%	213	194	44	8	2	5	15	58	2	4	2	224	285	356	641	132	290	27	7	286	79	-5	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1226	1117	255	46	12	28	88	328	10	24	8	228	291	366	657	138	296	27	7	293	82	-25	+2	-4	-7	+27	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	135	24	6	15	47	174	5	13	4	228	290	365	655	137	296	27	7	293	82	-13	+1	-2	-4	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2766	2527	571	98	23	69	198	741	21	51	18	226	288	365	653	139	290	27	7	290	82	-53	+3	-7	-16	+57	-1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	134	23	5	16	47	174	5	12	4	226	288	362	650	136	290	27	7	290	82	-13	+1	-2	-4	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Dylan Carlsonlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,987 PA	3.0	1,987	43	16	233	312	372	-9	-22	0.8	0.8
/162	664	14	5	-3.0	-7.4	0.3	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.1	1,364	34	26	227	286	366	-8	-5	0.3	0.4
/162	664	16	13	-4.0	-2.3	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Conrad (OGILVIE)	23	35→52	40→50	55	40	222/282/356	134	291	3	2	27%	7%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Meyers 2023 · A	24	42→46	44→50	51→40	43	211/270/330	119	277	11	9	28%	7%	69	-0.9	228/285/369	141	298	16	5	28%	6%	84	+0.2	226/286/369	143	292	17	3	28%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Alex Glenn 2014 · A	23	41→42	48→55	55→50	42	209/275/352	143	286	15	11	31%	7%	76	-0.4	216/263/365	149	280	15	11	28%	5%	74	-0.5	214/256/366	152	271	15	10	27%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Matthew Spencer 2009 · A	23	47→49	45→50	51→45	40	232/279/357	125	300	13	9	27%	5%	78	-0.3	231/275/375	144	284	17	7	24%	5%	82	-0.0	223/267/372	148	269	18	7	24%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Jordan Patterson 2015 · A	23	43→50	43→55	48→50	40	212/275/316	104	283	11	13	28%	5%	69	-0.9	228/288/373	145	315	14	11	31%	5%	86	+0.3	227/288/386	159	316	15	9	31%	5%	86	+0.3
●Tim Wheeler 2011 · A	23	44→54	44→50	50	43	217/279/332	116	278	12	14	26%	6%	73	-0.6	242/297/373	131	316	13	13	26%	6%	89	+0.5	247/301/371	124	324	12	13	26%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Sam Hilliard 2016 · A	22	45→49	44→55	54→55	44	219/281/347	128	305	10	11	30%	8%	76	-0.4	211/262/318	107	335	10	18	38%	6%	63	-1.4	208/281/383	175	283	19	18	32%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Brooks Baldwin 2024 · A	23	41→51	47→50	53→50	42	209/266/337	128	277	15	15	30%	7%	70	-0.9	246/296/387	141	308	16	15	25%	6%	92	+0.7	258/307/403	145	316	17	16	23%	6%	98	+0.9
✕Matt Cogen 2019 · A	23	46	47→55	54→40	46	229/290/368	139	282	13	5	24%	7%	85	+0.2	203/264/287	84	285	6	5	29%	7%	57	-1.8	160/223/197	36	238	0	2	30%	7%	19	-1.4
✕Kyle Isbel 2021 · A	24	42→52	45→50	52→55	40	214/260/336	123	281	12	16	28%	5%	67	-1.1	231/290/364	133	295	12	18	25%	7%	84	+0.2	232/292/371	139	290	13	19	24%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Carlos Guzman 2008 · A	22	39→48	43→50	53→50	44	193/274/305	112	280	11	9	33%	8%	66	-1.1	225/272/334	109	314	11	8	30%	6%	70	-0.8	237/289/332	96	308	9	3	25%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Kyle Waldrop 2014 · A	22	43→53	46→50	49→50	38	219/254/352	134	282	13	11	28%	4%	68	-1.0	236/270/352	116	309	11	8	26%	4%	74	-0.6	241/274/347	105	312	9	6	25%	4%	72	-0.6
✕Luis Liberato 2019 · A	23	42→50	47→50	44→50	41	213/260/351	139	283	14	6	30%	6%	70	-0.8	225/272/352	127	297	14	7	28%	6%	74	-0.5	221/286/368	148	299	15	9	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Conner Capel 2019 · A	22	43→48	45	47→55	44	214/274/339	125	284	11	11	28%	7%	72	-0.7	217/269/335	118	286	12	10	27%	6%	70	-0.9	226/297/349	123	283	12	19	23%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Ezequiel Pagan 2023 · A	23	48→54	45	52→50	44	239/289/363	124	283	12	9	20%	5%	84	+0.1	225/275/326	101	275	10	11	21%	5%	70	-0.9	214/263/307	93	263	9	11	22%	4%	58	-1.0
✕Daniel Palka 2015 · A	23	39→43	49→55	47→50	41	205/264/354	149	277	17	6	32%	7%	73	-0.6	211/262/382	171	301	22	10	36%	6%	79	-0.2	207/274/387	180	261	25	4	31%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Nicky Delmonico 2015 · A	23	41→48	47→55	46→45	43	209/275/346	136	285	15	8	31%	8%	75	-0.5	231/288/381	150	301	14	6	27%	7%	88	+0.4	237/306/397	160	290	18	4	24%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Gabriel Rincones Jr. 2024 · A	23	41→42	47→50	54→55	42	207/279/346	139	294	14	18	33%	8%	77	-0.3	212/287/351	139	290	15	20	30%	8%	81	-0.1	206/286/345	139	274	16	20	29%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Nick Buss 2010 · A	23	44→54	43→50	52→55	40	217/255/329	111	264	10	9	22%	4%	63	-1.4	238/275/339	101	280	7	15	17%	4%	72	-0.7	249/288/382	134	291	12	19	18%	4%	85	+0.2
✕Tom Belza 2012 · A	23	45→55	43→45	54→45	39	222/263/338	116	299	10	8	29%	5%	68	-1.0	232/280/330	98	301	7	8	24%	6%	72	-0.7	240/291/331	91	309	6	8	23%	6%	74	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps