Ryan Mathiesen — OGILVIE

Ryan Mathiesen P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%22.4%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	0.00	7.32	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	0.00	7.32	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	0.00	6.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	3	31	130	24	24	0	14%	1.4	15.1%	21.8%	-6.7%	0.0%	3.52	4.58	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	3	31	130	24	24	0	14%	1.4	15.1%	21.8%	-6.7%	0.0%	3.52	4.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	HOU	4	3	7	27	3	5	0	75%	1.7	11.1%	18.5%	-7.4%	0.0%	5.40	4.51	—
2026	23	A RAW	HOU	18	0	24	103	21	19	0	0%	1.3	20.4%	18.4%	1.9%	0.0%	3.00	3.71	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	29	0	31	130	30	15	4	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.3%	11.7%	2.9%	4.65	4.58	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	12	0	13	55	13	6	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.3%	11.7%	2.9%	4.65	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	55	13	6	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.3%	11.7%	2.9%	4.65	4.20	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	91	30	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.3%	11.7%	2.9%	4.65	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		23	3	32	133	20	29	0	13%	1.4	14.7%	22.0%	-7.3%	0.0%	3.41	4.64	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	19	200	840	124	185	0	13%	1.4	14.7%	22.0%	-7.3%	0.0%	3.41	4.64	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Mathiesen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	22.4%	12.5%	3.0%	—	4.58	23.1%	11.7%	31	-0.23	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	86
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	86
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	86
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	86
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	85
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	85
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	84
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	84
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	84
Vince Arobio R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	20.5%	12.0%	2.9%	.365	3.67	24.1%	16.2%	55	-0.80	3.67	118	84
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.56	249	84
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	84
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	84
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	83
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	83