Gavin Smith

SS FCL Blue Jays

Age 21 R/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	20	ROKTOR	131	.202/.323/.312	2	3	13	—	.121/.215/.181
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBTOR	241	.195/.264/.281	3	5	55	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBTOR	65	.200/.270/.294	1	2	60	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed54

Whiff%50

ISO47

Z-Con%44

BB%29

Chase%28

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsIsmael Alcantara (age 20) · Max George (age 21) · Nelson Medina (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 110 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .262 / .278

PA110

HR1

K%33

BB%7

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	20	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	131	109	22	4	1	2	16	39	4	3	2	202	323	312	635	110	290	30	12	295	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	131	116	14	2	1	1	10	56	4	3	2	121	215	181	396	60	214	43	8	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	131	116	14	2	1	1	10	56	4	3	2	121	215	181	396	60	217	43	8	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	131	109	22	4	1	2	16	39	4	3	2	202	323	312	635	110	290	30	12	295	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	131	116	14	2	1	1	10	56	4	3	2	121	215	181	396	60	214	43	8	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	131	116	14	2	1	1	10	56	4	3	2	121	215	181	396	60	214	43	8	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	241	219	43	7	2	3	17	80	3	5	1	195	264	281	545	86	289	33	7	249	55	-13	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	34%	190	171	34	6	1	2	14	61	3	5	1	199	269	293	561	93	290	32	7	256	60	-9	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	34%	65	59	11	2	0	1	5	21	1	2	0	200	270	294	564	94	291	32	8	257	60	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	65	59	11	2	0	1	5	21	1	2	0	186	262	271	533	85	270	32	8	257	44	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	110	20	0	10	50	210	10	20	0	186	262	271	533	85	270	32	8	257	44	-31	+4	+0	+7	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	431	387	67	11	3	4	32	153	8	10	4	173	251	248	499	75	270	35	7	234	44	-15	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	102	17	5	6	48	231	12	15	6	175	252	252	504	77	273	36	7	234	44	-33	+1	+0	+7	+14	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gavin Smith (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	193/262/278	85	289	1	2	33%	7%	55	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Max George 2017 · A	21	40→39	40→45	47→55	44	191/279/286	95	286	8	10	33%	8%	64	-1.3	187/268/298	111	251	10	19	28%	7%	62	-1.4	166/254/289	123	223	13	23	31%	8%	53	-1.3
✕Nelson Medina 2021 · A	20	37	39→45	48→50	41	176/252/260	84	283	6	10	37%	8%	47	-2.5	192/274/286	94	292	6	14	33%	9%	61	-1.5	139/214/211	72	250	5	19	43%	8%	20	-1.4
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Neyfy Castillo 2021 · A	20	39→33	37→45	54→55	39	187/245/260	73	279	3	11	32%	6%	43	-2.8	186/260/317	131	336	16	16	46%	8%	63	-1.3	173/250/304	131	303	16	19	45%	8%	53	-1.4
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→32	41→40	49→50	45	190/258/293	104	259	8	12	29%	8%	57	-1.8	179/258/267	88	262	6	9	31%	9%	51	-2.3	166/253/247	81	240	5	8	30%	10%	42	-1.7
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	36	39→40	51→50	40	181/244/269	88	257	7	13	31%	6%	46	-2.6	196/262/273	77	311	7	10	36%	7%	53	-2.1	190/263/263	73	291	8	10	35%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Carlos Dominguez 2021 · A	21	39→26	40→45	50	39	190/272/284	94	273	6	12	31%	5%	61	-1.5	170/238/291	121	318	15	12	49%	5%	49	-2.4	137/207/253	116	269	16	13	53%	5%	27	-1.7
✕Adam Zebrowski 2022 · A	21	44→33	39→50	49→40	38	206/267/292	86	316	5	7	34%	6%	59	-1.6	189/261/309	120	279	13	4	35%	8%	62	-1.4	186/237/319	133	265	18	2	36%	5%	52	-1.3
✕Ricardo Hurtado 2024 · A	21	39→29	40→45	48→45	46	187/286/283	96	259	7	6	28%	8%	67	-1.1	184/278/286	102	279	10	4	35%	9%	63	-1.3	163/265/259	96	246	11	3	35%	10%	51	-1.2
✕Carson Tucker 2023 · A	21	39	39→40	52→55	37	168/245/249	82	343	6	11	49%	9%	42	-2.9	187/254/271	84	377	7	9	48%	7%	50	-2.3	198/253/262	64	335	3	18	39%	6%	44	-0.9
✕Freuddy Batista 2021 · A	21	38	39→50	48→40	36	186/240/272	87	288	7	5	36%	6%	45	-2.7	203/268/343	140	296	15	6	35%	6%	72	-0.7	195/262/337	142	285	14	5	35%	6%	66	-0.5
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→40	40	52→50	39	199/251/297	98	277	6	10	29%	5%	54	-2.0	219/276/320	101	333	8	10	34%	7%	69	-0.9	214/275/310	96	327	9	12	35%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Frank Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	40	39→45	48→30	38	194/254/281	87	293	7	4	35%	6%	52	-2.2	180/236/264	84	253	7	3	31%	6%	41	-3.0	183/244/267	84	241	9	1	27%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Ryan Spikes 2024 · A	21	36→30	42→45	53→55	35	175/239/277	101	299	10	17	42%	7%	45	-2.7	186/234/300	114	292	13	18	39%	5%	49	-2.4	181/223/300	119	274	14	22	38%	4%	42	-1.5
✕Brandon Dailey 2013 · A	21	42	40→45	55	37	203/249/301	98	294	7	12	32%	5%	54	-2.0	195/248/297	102	288	9	6	34%	6%	53	-2.1	144/199/220	76	199	6	0	30%	5%	17	-1.1
✕Dale Burdick 2017 · A	21	38	39→45	49→50	38	178/248/267	88	297	5	7	39%	7%	47	-2.5	179/255/275	96	316	7	8	42%	8%	51	-2.2	146/235/239	93	260	8	8	43%	9%	33	-1.3
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	174/218/258	84	255	7	7	34%	5%	32	-3.6	190/226/284	94	268	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/249/256	81	276	5	19	36%	8%	45	-2.7	192/257/267	75	279	5	10	31%	7%	50	-2.3	170/235/212	43	235	3	6	27%	7%	28	-1.2
✕Jhosmmel Zue 2024 · A	20	38	41→40	51→50	43	185/266/287	102	288	8	10	36%	9%	59	-1.7	190/260/283	93	325	8	8	40%	8%	55	-1.9	184/249/264	79	319	7	10	41%	7%	45	-0.8